Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change

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Global carbon dioxide emissions 1800–2000

Global average surface temperature 1850 to 2006

Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change: A Scientific Symposium on Stabilisation of Greenhouse Gases was a 2005 international conference that redefined the link between atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration, and the 2°C (3.6°F) ceiling on global warming thought necessary to avoid the most serious effects of global warming. Previously this had generally been accepted as being 550 ppm.

The conference took place under the United Kingdom's presidency of the G8, with the participation of around 200 'internationally renowned' scientists from 30 countries. It was hosted by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Exeter, between 1-3 February.^[1]

1 Objectives
2 Conclusions
3 Reaction
4 See also
5 External links
- 5.1 In the media
6 Further reading
7 References

[edit] Objectives

The conference was called to bring together the latest research into what would be necessary to achieve the objective of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change:

to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

It was also intended to encourage further research in the area. An initial assessment of the subject had been included in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report, however the topic had received relatively little international discussion.^[2]

Specifically, the conference explored three issues:

For different levels of climate change what are the key impacts, for different regions and sectors and for the world as a whole?
What would such levels of climate change imply in terms of greenhouse gas stabilisation concentrations and emission pathways required to achieve such levels?
What options are there for achieving stabilisation of greenhouse gases at different stabilisation concentrations in the atmosphere, taking into account costs and uncertainties?

[edit] Conclusions

Among the conclusions reached, the most significant was a new assessment of the link between the concentration of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere and the increase in global temperature levels. The IPCC had concluded that the most serious consequences of global warming might be avoided if global average temperatures rose by no more than 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels (1.5°C above present levels). It had generally been assumed that this would occur if greenhouse gas concentrations rose above 550 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent by volume. This concentration was, for example, informing government in certain countries including the European Union.^[3]

The conference concluded that, at the level of 550 ppm, it was likely that 2°C would be exceeded, based on the projections of more recent climate models. Stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm would only result in a 50% likelihood of limiting global warming to 2°C, and that it would be necessary to achieve stabilisation below 400 ppm to give a relatively high certainty of not exceeding 2°C.^[4]

Based on the current rate of increase - averaging about 2 ppm per year^[5] - greenhouse gas concentrations are likely to reach to reach 400 ppm by 2016, 450 ppm by 2041, and 550 ppm by around 2091.

The conference also warned that, if action to reduce emissions is delayed by 20 years, rates of emission reduction may need to be 3 to 7 times greater to meet the same temperature target.

[edit] Reaction

As a result of the revised opinion on the 'safe' atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gasses, environmental pressure groups and some political parties are demanding that the UK Government take this into account in the Climate Change Bill, by setting a target to cut emissions by 75% to 80% by 2050.^[6]

[edit] See also

Energy Portal

[edit] External links

Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change - official conference website
Tyndall Centre - A strategic assessment of scientific and behavioural perspectives on 'dangerous' climate change
RSPB - Keeping below 2 degrees: Avoiding dangerous climate change
WWF-UK - 2°C Is Too Much! Evidence and Implications of Dangerous Climate Change in the Arctic
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency - Meeting the European Union 2°C climate target: global and regional emission implications

[edit] In the media

February 1, 2006, Euractive: UK chief scientific adviser: Keeping CO2 concentration below 450ppm is 'unfeasible'
January 30, 2006, BBC: Stark warning over climate change
January 30, 2006, BBC: Climate report: the main points
January 29, 2006, Washington Post: Debate on Climate Shifts to Issue of Irreparable Change
January 1, 2006, Times online: World has only 20 years to stop climate disaster
February 4, 2005, Environment News Service: Catastrophic Climate Change Risk Accelerating, Scientists Warn
February 3, 2005, Guardian Unlimited: Climate conference hears degree of danger

[edit] Further reading

Related book: Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Editor: Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Cambridge University Press, February 2006, ISBN-13: 9780521864718, ISBN-10: 0521864712, DOI: 10.2277/0521864712.
- PDF version