Prognosis
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Prognosis (older Greek πρόγνωσις, modern Greek πρόγνωση - literally fore-knowing, foreseeing) is a medical term denoting the doctor's prediction of how a patient's disease will progress, and whether there is chance of recovery. Since the 20th century, the word is being increasingly used in non-medical contexts as well, for example in corporate finance.
[edit] Methodology
Large areas of medicine are still missing statistical figures on the exact prognosis - in these matters the doctor's previous experiences largely guides pronouncements in this matter. Medical studies have demonstrated that most doctors are overly optimistic when giving prognostic information, that is, they tend to overstate how long the patient might live. For patients who are critically ill, particularly those in an intensive care unit, there are numerical prognostic scoring systems that are more accurate. The most famous of these is the APACHE II scale. However, this scale is most accurate in the seven days prior to a patient's predicted death.
Knowing the prognosis helps determine whether it makes more sense to attempt certain treatments or to withhold them, and thus plays an important role in end-of-life decisions.
[edit] History
For the great 19th century physicians, particularly the French school, the main aim of medicine was not to cure disease, but rather to diagnose it and achieve a satisfying prognosis of the patient's chances. Only several decades later did the focus of efforts in Western medicine shift to curing disease.
