United States House elections, 1994
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The U.S. House election, 1994 was an election for the United States House of Representatives on November 8, 1994, in the middle of President Bill Clinton's first term. As a result of a 54-seat swing in membership from Democrats to Republicans, the Republican Party gained a majority of seats in the House for the first time since 1954.
The Democratic Party had run the House for forty years and had been plagued by a series of scandals. The Republican Party, united behind Newt Gingrich's Contract with America, which promised floor votes on various popular and institutional reforms, was able to capitalize on the perception that the House leadership was corrupt, as well as the dissatisfaction of conservative voters with President Clinton's actions (including a failed attempt at universal health care).
In a historic election, House Speaker Tom Foley (D-Washington) was defeated for re-election in his district, becoming the first Speaker of the House to fail to win re-election since the era of the American Civil War. Other major upsets included the defeat of powerful long-serving Representatives such as Ways and Means Chairman Dan Rostenkowski (D-Illinois) and Judiciary Chairman Jack Brooks (D-Texas). In all, 34 incumbents (all Democrats) were defeated, though several of them (like David Price of North Carolina, Ted Strickland of Ohio, and Jay Inslee of Washington) regained seats in later elections; Maria Cantwell of Washington won a U.S. Senate race in 2000. Democrats won four Republican-held seats where the incumbents were stepping down (Maine, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island). No Republican incumbent lost his or her seat in 1994.
Minority whip Newt Gingrich (R-Georgia), re-elected in the Republican landslide, became Speaker (previous Minority Leader Robert H. Michel having retired). Former Majority Leader Dick Gephardt (D-Missouri) became minority leader. The new Republican leadership in the House promise to bring a dozen legislative proposals to a vote in the first 100 days of the session, although the Senate did not always follow suit.
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[edit] Voting Patterns
[edit] GOP Gains, 1992-94
| Category | % Rep. 1992 |
% Rep. 1994 |
% shift to GOP 1992-94 |
size of group % /all |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern whites | 53 | 65 | 12 | 24 |
| White men | 51 | 62 | 11 | 40 |
| White "Born Again" Christian | 66 | 76 | 10 | 20 |
| Whites 30-44 years old | 51 | 61 | 10 | 28 |
| Independents | 46 | 56 | 10 | 24 |
| White Protestants | 57 | 66 | 9 | 41 |
| Whites 60 and over | 46 | 55 | 9 | 26 |
| Whites | 50 | 58 | 8 | 79 |
| Men 30-44 years old | 49 | 57 | 8 | 17 |
| Republicans | 85 | 93 | 8 | 35 |
| Income under $15,000 | 31 | 38 | 7 | 11 |
| Conservatives | 72 | 79 | 7 | 34 |
| Men 60 and over | 44 | 51 | 7 | 12 |
| Whites 45-49 | 52 | 59 | 7 | 23 |
| Men | 48 | 54 | 6 | 49 |
| High school education | 42 | 48 | 6 | 22 |
| Some college | 47 | 53 | 6 | 32 |
| White women | 49 | 55 | 6 | 40 |
| Unmarried men | 42 | 48 | 6 | 14 |
| Country on "wrong track" | -- | 67 | 59 | |
| Disapprove of Clinton | -- | 82 | 49 | |
| 1992 Perot voters | -- | 67 | 12 |
- Source: Data from exit-poll surveys by Voter Research and Surveys and Mitofsky International published in the New York Times, 13 November 1994 p. 24
[edit] Religious Right
Evangelicals were an important group within the electorate and a significant voting bloc in the Republican party. The national exit poll by Mitofsky International showed 27% of all voters identified themselves as a born-again or evangelical Christians, up from 18% in 1988 and 24% in 1992. Republican House candidates outpolled Democrats among white evangelicals by a massive 52 points, 76% to 24%.[1]
According to a survey sponsored by the Christian Coalition, 33 percent of the 1994 voters were "religious conservatives," up from 24 percent in 1992 and 18 percent in 1988 [CQ Weekly Report, November 19, 1994, p3364); in the 1994 exit poll, 38 percent identified themselves as "conservatives," compared with 30 percent in 1992[2].
Party Identification and Ideology by Selected Religious Groups 1994
| Party identification | Political ideology | ||||
| Religion | Democrats | Republicans | Liberal | Moderate | Conservative |
| White evangelical | 20% | 54% | 6% | 33% | 61% |
| Highly religious | 34 | 39 | 15 | 48 | 37 |
| Secular | 44 | 27 | 31 | 47 | 22 |
| Jewish | 57 | 13 | 36 | 50 | 14 |
| All voters | 41 | 35 | 18 | 47 | 35 |
- Source: Mitofsky International exit poll in Klinkner p 121
[edit] Overall results
| Party | Seats | Seat percentage | Popular Vote | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Elected | Net Change | ||||
| Democratic Party | 258 | 204 | -54 | 46.9% | 44.0% | |
| Independent | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| Republican Party | 176 | 230 | +54 | 52.9% | 49.9% | |
| Totals | 435 | 435 | +0 | 100.0% | ||
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[edit] Individual State Results
Key to party abbreviations: C=Constitution, D=Democrat, G=Green, I=Independent, IP=Independence Party, L=Libertarian, R=Republican, T=U.S. Taxpayers Party.
Key to color code: Blue=Democratic pickup; Red=Republican pickup.
[edit] Wisconsin
| District | Incumbent | Party | Elected | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin 1 | Peter Barca | Democrat | 1993 | Mark Neumann (R) 49.4% Peter Barca (D) 48.8% Edward Kozak (L) 2% |
| Wisconsin 2 | Scott Klug | Republican | 1990 | Scott Klug (R) 69% Thomas Hecht (D) 29% John Stumpf (T) 1% Joseph Schumacher (I) 1% |
| Wisconsin 3 | Steve Gunderson | Republican | 1980 | Steve Gunderson (R) 56% Harvey Stower (D) 41% Chuck Lee (T) 2% Mark Weinhold (I) 1% |
| Wisconsin 4 | Jerry Kleczka | Democrat | 1984 | Jerry Kleczka (D) 54% Tom Reynolds (R) 45% James Harold Hause (T) 1% |
| Wisconsin 5 | Tom Barrett | Democrat | 1992 | Tom Barrett (D) 62% Stephen Hollingshead (R) 36% David Schall (I) 1% |
| Wisconsin 6 | Tom Petri | Republican | 1979 | Tom Petri (R) unopposed |
| Wisconsin 7 | Dave Obey | Democrat | 1969 | Dave Obey (D) 54% Scott West (R) 46% |
| Wisconsin 8 | Toby Roth | Republican | 1978 | Toby Roth (R) 64% Stan Gruszynski (D) 36% |
| Wisconsin 9 | James Sensenbrenner | Republican | 1979 | James Sensenbrenner (R) unopposed |
[edit] References
- Klinkner; Philip A. Midterm: The Elections of 1994 in Context Westview Press, 1996
- Steeper, F. "This swing is different: Analysis of 1994 election exit polls". The Cook Political Report (Feb 8 1995)
- Teixeira, Ruy A. "The Economics of the 1994 Election and U.S. Politics Today" Challenge. Volume: 39. Issue: 1. 1996. pp 26+.
- Wattenberg; Martin P. "The Democrats' Decline in the House during the Clinton Presidency: An Analysis of Partisan Swings" Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 29, 1999
[edit] See also
| United States House of Representatives Elections |
|---|
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