Generational dynamics

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Generational Dynamics, as proposed by self-published amateur historian John J. Xenaxis, is a branch of Analytic History that determines historical patterns by analyzing generational changes. It distinguishes between two kinds of wars, crisis wars and non-crisis wars, where crisis wars are the worst and most genocidal wars. Simply stated, throughout history, these crisis wars typically occur approximately 50-70 years after the last, following the disappearance of the generations that lived through the previous crisis war.

Contents 1 Origins of Generational Dynamics 2 Turnings and Crisis Wars 3 Generational Dynamics Forecasting Methodology 4 References

[edit] Origins of Generational Dynamics

The discovery of historical social cycles is relatively new. In 1956, Anthony F. C. Wallace published a paper called "Revitalization Movements" to describe how cultures change themselves. A revitalization movement is a "deliberate, organized, conscious effort by members of a group to create a new culture," and Wallace describes at length the processes by which a revitalization movement takes place.^[1]

Wallace derived his theory from studies of so-called primitive peoples (preliterate and homogeneous), with particular attention to the Iroquois revitalization movement led by Seneca religious leader and "prophet" Handsome Lake (1735-1815). Wallace believed that his revitalization model applies to movements as broad and complex as the rise of Christianity, Islam, Buddhism, or Wesleyan Methodism.

In his 1978 book, "Revivals, Awakenings, and Reform" (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0226560929 ), William G. McLoughlin took Wallace's works and extended it to "the complex, pluralistic, and highly literate people of the United States." He started with the Puritan Awakening (1610-40) in England, and showed how similar "spiritual awakenings" occurred in the U.S. at regular intervals -- the First Great Awakening of 1730-60, the Second Great Awakening of 1800-30, the Third Great Awakening of 1890-1920, and the Fourth Great Awakening of the 1960s and 1970s.

In their two books, "Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069" and "The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy," William Strauss and Neil Howe greatly advanced McLoughlin's work. They show that McLoughlin's awakenings occur throughout Anglo-American history, back to at least the 1400s, and that awakening eras alternate with "crisis eras," which climax in "human history's equivalent to nature's raging typhoon, the kind that sucks all surrounding matter into a single swirl of ferocious energy. Anything not lashed down goes flying; anything standing in the way gets flattened." America's last three crisis eras were the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and World War II. These crisis eras and wars lie approximately midway between the awakening eras identified by McLoughlin. Strauss and Howe studied histories and diaries written throughout Anglo-American history, and discovered that awakening and crisis eras are generated by generational changes that occur over and over. They found that Anglo-American history cycles through four eras or "turnings" that repeat over and over. An awakening era is the Second Turning, and the crisis era is the Fourth Turning.

In his 2003 book, "Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny," John J. Xenakis extended previous researchers' work to show that the same generational cycles occur in every country throughout history. On his web site, http://GenerationalDynamics.com, he's developed generational theory further by providing articles and analyses showing how today's world events are consequences of generational patterns established decades ago, and sometimes centuries ago.

[edit] Turnings and Crisis Wars

For Generational Dynamics, the most important events in history are "crisis wars." There are two distinctly different kinds of wars: crisis and non-crisis wars. Crisis wars are worst wars, the most genocidal wars. These are the wars that change history, and are remembered for centuries.

America has been in two crisis wars since its founding: The Civil War, in which Northern General Sherman marched through the South, and conducted a "scorched earth" war campaign, burning all buildings and crops to the ground; and World War II, in which the Allies firebombed Dresden and Tokyo, killing millions of civilians, and dropped nuclear weapons on two other Japanese cities.

There is a crisis war going on today in Darfur, Sudan, where possibly millions have been raped, killed, starved, or forced from their homes. The United Nations has been trying to stop this war for three years, but has been totally ineffective. According to Generational Dynamics, it's no more possible to stop a crisis war than it is to stop a tsunami.

Other recent crisis wars were the wars in the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda in the 1990s, the Iran/Iraq and Syria/Lebanon wars of the 1980s, and the Cambodia "killing fields" of the 1970s. The civil war in Sri Lanka is currently a non-crisis war, but according to Generational Dynamics, it appears to be close to becoming a crisis war. ^[2]

According to Generational Dynamics, all societies experience crisis wars, roughly every 70-90 years (the maximum length of a human lifetime). Basically, a new crisis war occurs roughly when the survivors of the previous crisis war all disappear. After a crisis war occurs, all societies go through four generational periods, or "turnings," each about 20 years long, leading to a new crisis war. A typical pattern is as follows:

(*) First Turning -- Austerity Period or High Period. When a crisis war ends, new emotions take over in the public. There's a relief that the country survived, there's acceptance of the victory or defeat and the compromises that were required, there's guilt and controversy at the atrocities committed by them and fury at atrocities committed by others, and most of all there's a determination that no such war must ever happen again. This is often a period of great prosperity, since there's plenty of land and food for the smaller population that survived the war, and there's a willingness to impose austere societal rules to guarantee that the nation will be safe from that time forward. (America's most recent austerity period began in 1945.)

(*) Second Turning -- Awakening period. About 15-20 years into the Austerity Period, the kids who were born after the crisis war, and who have no personal memory of the horrors of that war, come of age. They see no reason to suffer under the austere rules imposed by their parents, and they rebel, creating a "generation gap." The resulting political furor is the rebirth of individual rights (women's rights, minority rights, and so forth), as opposed to the austere rules whose purpose is to protect society as a whole. The Awakening period often ends in an "internal revolution" or "velvet revolution" or "bloodless coup" or a harsh crackdown. This event establishes the victory of one generation or the other, and sets the pattern for the unraveling to come. America's most recent Awakening period was the 1960s-70s. Iran and Iraq are in Awakening periods today, thanks to being one generation past the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s.)

(*) Third Turning -- Unraveling period. During this period, all the painful compromises and rules that ended the last crisis war come completely unraveled. It's each man or woman for him or herself, as individual rights are king. Society has no direction or purpose except to preserve the status quo. Problems are papered over, resolved by compromise and containment. (America's last Unraveling period was the 1980s-90s. China is in an unraveling period today.)

(*) Fourth Turning - Crisis Period. When all the people who lived during the previous Crisis period disappear (retire or die) all at once, then a major generational change takes place: The nation's leaders are all from the generations born after the last crisis war. Through the third turning, the people who had gathered a great deal of wisdom from having lived through the last crisis war have guided the nation carefully, making sure that disasters are avoided. But in the Fourth Turning, that wisdom is all lost, and the new leaders literally don't know how to run things; all they know how to do, it turns out, is to express outrage when something goes wrong. The new crisis period often begins with some surprise -- such as a financial crisis (1929 stock market crash) or a terrorist act (9/11). The next crisis war usually begins a few years after the crisis period begins. (America and most countries that fought in World War II are currently in a Fourth Turning.)

[edit] Generational Dynamics Forecasting Methodology

In using Generational Dynamics to evaluate current events, what's important is changes in behaviors and attitudes of large masses of people. The actions and speeches of politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they reflect changes in behaviors and attitudes of large masses of people.

Because societies follow the same generational patterns over and over, Generational Dynamics can predict certain trend events with almost mathematical certainty, but only with a time window of one or two decades; this is called "long-range forecasting." Shifts in opinions, behaviors or attitudes of large masses of people in a society or nation provide "short-range forecasting" input that has to be matched up with the "long-range forecasting" input provided by Generational Dynamics itself, to come up with a more useful "probabilistic" prediction. These have been shown to have tremendous accuracy.

John J. Xenakis has been posting these kinds of probabilistic predictions since 2003 on his web site, http://GenerationalDynamics.com .

[edit] References