Social cycle theory
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Social cycle theory (also known as sociological theory of cycles) is one of the earliest social theories in sociology. Unlike the theory of social evolutionism, which views the evolution of society and human history as progressing in some new, unique direction(s), social cycle theory argues that events and stages of society and history are repeating themselves in cycles and thus there cannot be any social progress. Note that this is not valid for the modern theories of long-term ("secular") political-demographic cycles (e.g., Korotayev, Malkov, and Khaltourina 2006[1]).
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[edit] Predecessors
Interpretation of history as the repeating cycles of events was first put forward in the academic world in the 19th century in historiosophy (a branch of historiography) and was soon adopted by sociology. However, Polybius, Ibn Khaldun, and Giambattista Vico can be seen as precursors of this analysis. The Saeculum was first identified in Roman times.
[edit] Classical theories
Among prominent historiosophers important is Russian philosopher Nikolai Danilewski (1822-1885), who in Rossiia i Europa (1869) differentiated between various smaller civilizations (Egyptian, Chinese, Persian, Greece, Roman, German, and Slav, among others). He wrote that each civilisation has a life cycle, and by the end of 19th century the Roman-German civilisation was in decline, while Slav civilisation was approaching its Golden Age. Similar theory was put forward by Oswald Spengler (1880-1936) who in his Der Untergang des Abendlandes (1918) also expected that the Western civilisation was about to collapse.
The first social cycle theory in sociology was created by Italian sociologist and economist Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923) in his Trattato di Sociologia Generale (1916). He centered his theory on the concept of elite social class, which he divided into cunning 'foxes' and violent 'lions'. In his view of society, the power constantly passes from 'foxes' to 'lions' and vice versa.
Social cycle theory was developed by Pitirim A. Sorokin (1889-1968) in his Social and Cultural Dynamics (1937, 1943). He classified societies according to their 'cultural mentality', which can be ideational (reality as spiritual), sensate (reality is material), or idealistic (a synthesis of the two). He has interpreted the contemporary West as a sensate civilisation dedicated to technological progress and prophesied its fall into decandence and the emergence of a new ideational or idealistic era.
[edit] Modern theories
One of the most important recent findings in the study of the long-term dynamic social processes was the discovery of the political-demographic cycles as a basic feature of complex agrarian systems' dynamics.
The presence of political-demographic cycles in the pre-modern history of Europe and China has been known for quite a long time (e.g., Postan 1950, 1973; Abel 1974, 1980; Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie 1974; Hodder 1978; Braudel 1973; Chao 1986; Cameron 1989; Goldstone 1991; Kul'pin 1990; Mugruzin 1986, 1994 etc.), and already in the 1980s more or less developed mathematical models of demographic cycles started to be produced (first of all for Chinese "dynastic cycles") (Usher 1989). At the moment we have a very considerable number of such models (Chu and Lee 1994; Nefedov 1999, 2002, 2003, 2004; S. Malkov, Kovalev, and A. Malkov 2000; S. Malkov and A. Malkov 2000; Malkov and Sergeev 2002, 2004a, 2004b; Malkov et al. 2002; Malkov 2002, 2003, 2004; Turchin 2003, 2005a).
Recently the most important contributions to the development of the mathematical models of long-term ("secular") sociodemographic cycles have been made by Sergey Nefedov, Peter Turchin and Sergey Malkov. What is important is that on the basis of their models Nefedov, Turchin and Malkov have managed to demonstrate that sociodemographic cycles were a basic feature of complex agrarian systems (and not a specifically Chinese or European phenomenon).
The basic logic of these models is as follows: After the population reaches the ceiling of the carrying capacity of land, its growth rate declines toward near-zero values. The system experiences significant stress with decline in the living standards of the common population, increasing the severity of famines, growing rebellions etc. As has been shown by Nefedov, most complex agrarian systems had considerable reserves for stability, however, within 50–150 years these reserves were usually exhausted and the system experienced a demographic collapse (a Malthusian catastrophe), when increasingly severe famines, epidemics, increasing internal warfare and other disasters led to a considerable decline of population. As a result of this collapse, free resources became available, per capita production and consumption considerably increased, the population growth resumed and a new sociodemographic cycle started. It has become possible to model these dynamics mathematically in a rather effective way. Note that the modern theories of political-demographic cycles do not deny the presence of trend dynamics and attempt at the study of the interaction between cyclical and trend components of historical dynamics.
[edit] Further reading
- Chu, C. Y. C., and R. D. Lee. (1994) Famine, Revolt, and the Dynastic Cycle: Population Dynamics in Historic China. Journal of Population Economics 7: 351–78.
- Korotayev, A., Malkov, A., & Khaltourina, D. (2006) Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends. Moscow: URSS.
- Korotayev, A. & Khaltourina D. (2006) Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa. Moscow: URSS.
- Nefedov, S. A. (2003) A Theory of Demographic Cycles and the Social Evolution of Ancient and Medieval Oriental Societies. Oriens 3: 5-22.
- Nefedov, S. A. (2004) A Model of Demographic Cycles in Traditional Societies: The Case of Ancient China. Social Evolution & History 3(1): 69–80.
- Postan, M. M. 1973. Essays on Medieval Agriculture and General Problems of the Medieval Economy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Turchin, P. (2003) Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
- Turchin, P. (2005) Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States. Structure & Dynamics 1 [2].
- Turchin, P., et al., eds. (2007). History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies. Moscow: KomKniga. ISBN 5484010020
- Usher, D. 1989. The Dynastic Cycle and the Stationary State. The American Economic Review 79: 1031–44.
