Unknown unknown
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In decision analysis, an unknown unknown, often shortened to unk-unk, is an uncertainty that is unanticipated and, hence, unaccounted for in a formal decision model. Unk-unk may also refer to unanticipated decision variables, although this usage is less common.
The former U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld discussed unknown unknowns at the Defense Department Briefing on February 12, 2002:
| “ | Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don't know we don't know. | ” |
These helpful definitions won the 2003 Foot in Mouth award from the Plain English Campaign, and are also hailed as an example of found poetry.
[edit] In popular culture
In Oxford University, events which occur so randomly that they are unaccounted for even by the most meticulous plans are often referred to as the "King of Norway" factor. This began after a large student union election campaign was disrupted by an (apparently) unannounced visit by HM King Harald V of Norway to Balliol College, where the campaign was based. This had the effect of effectively locking the campaign into the college for the duration of the visit.
In The Boondocks animated series, the character Gin Rummy, a representation of Donald Rumsfeld, makes several references to unknown unknowns.
