Gambling for resurrection
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Gambling for resurrection is a situation in international relations when a leader weakened domestically is willing to risk war or prolong war to maintain office.
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[edit] Theory
Leaders weakened domestically often undertake risky policies under the expectation that personally undesirable developments will take place should the country's situation not improve. A diversionary war is one example of gambling for resurrection. The fear of removal from office due to either poor performance or bad luck may prompt a leader to instigate a war he or she might not rationally have started in the hope that should by some chance it does go well he or she would stay in power. Gambling for resurrection can also occur within a preexisting war, where a leader might prolong a war which at the onset seemed rational for the country as a whole but could currently be ended, fearing removal from office or punishment (imprisonment, exile, or death). The leader thus continues the war against the country's interest, adopting risky military strategies in the hope of a dramatic reversal of fortune in the war's outcome.[1] In this situation, escalation is more attractive than peace because the losses are below the removal threshold for the leader's constituency. Once the constituency seem determined to remove the leader from office, it has no other sanction to apply to the leader. The executive, then, has nothing to risk in further escalation, but may win his right to stay in office should the gamble be successful.[2]
[edit] Pop culture influence
Gambling for resurrection is often referred to in the mainstream media as "Wag the dog," a reference to a 1997 film by the same name in which a President of the United States starts a fake diversionary war to distract the American public from a sex scandal. By coincidence, a month after the movie was released President Bill Clinton was involved in a sex scandal and started 3 military strikes in 1998 against Iraq, targets in the Sudan and Afghanistan, and Serbia in the heat of the scandal.[3]
[edit] References
- ^ Downs, George W.; David M. Rocke (1995). Optimal Imperfection? Domestic Uncertainty and Institutions in International Relations. Princeton University Press.
- ^ Downs, George W.; David M. Rocke (May 1994). "Conflict, Agency, and Gambling for Resurrection: The Principal-Agent Problem Goes to War" (in English) (Text). American Journal of Political Science 38 (2): 362-380. ISSN 0092-5853. Retrieved on April 2, 2007.
- ^ Bruni, Frank (August 21, 1998). Is Life Imitating Art? 'Wag the Dog' Springs to Many Minds (text). New York Times. Retrieved on March 7, 2007.
