User:Greaser/notes

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[edit] My New Zealand Politics Crystal Ball

•  New Zealand Due to the inpopularity of Michael Cullen following the Cullen Fund and Budget '05 he will be replaced as Deputy Prime Minister in early 2007, probably by Steve Maharey but I wouldn't rule out Phil Goff or Annette King, expecting Shane Jones to take more responsibility. Clark, will not be replaced as Prime Minister but will trawl through the Labour Party for individuals to win the Maori seats other than Mahuta and Horemia.

ACT will continue to exist purely on the back of Rodney Hide. (✓)

• A republic will be proposed and voted down at a referrendum, as will a flag changing referrendum both by ~10-15% but short of a supra-majority.

•  New Zealand The Labour Party, despite being embattled will win a surprize fourth term led by Helen Clark by surprizingly cutting taxes in the 12 months leading up to the elction. Then going into coalition with the Winston Peters' faction formed after another schism and Greens. United Future, New Zealand First will fail to make it past the 5% threshhold; albeit, the Nats will become the biggest party in parliament and be expected to win the 2011 election.

•  New Zealand John Key will be the Leader of the Opposition either leading up to the election or following the election loss. (✓)

[edit] My Political Crystal Ball - Republics, and debate... or not

•  United States Democrats to win the elections in '06 and be the majority party in Senate, thwarting Bush. (✓)
•  United States Condi Rice to become the first female President of the United States.

• Republicanism versus Monarchism
  •  Australia to become a republic after the death of Queen Elisabeth II. They will subsequently become dis-enchanted and wish they hadn't.
  •  Canada to remain a constitutional monarch.
  • Québec to become a republic, if given the choice - not likely.
  •  New Zealand to remain a constitutional monarchy and, if given the choice, will choose King William V of New Zealand.
•  Fiji to become a Commonwealth Realm in an attempt to rediscover political stability.
  •  Tuvalu to remain with New Zealand.
  •  United Kingdom to not change, at all. To even loyally stay by Charles, Prince of Wales.
  •  Tonga to consider becoming a republic, mostly through perceived synonimously associating that with democracy.
  •  Russia to re-merge with  Ukraine and  Kazakhstan provided they actually pay back the loans they owe their former Soviet-sister.