Talk:Murphy's law

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[edit] Older comments

"The original Murphy's Law reads: "If there are two or more ways to do something, and one of those ways can result in a catastrophe, then someone will do it." It was then a principle of defensive design. For example ..."

This article is really vague. By reading "It was then a principle of defensive design .." I can only try to guess, is this related to Engineering?? what on earth is "defensive design"? Rotem Dan 15:26 Apr 15, 2003 (UTC)

Defensive design is the idea that if you care about which way a plug gets plugged in, then you should *not* design it to be possible to plug in backwards, as the article notes.

This piece is *really* similar to the write-up in the Jargon File -- almost word for word in spots. Should some credit be given?

-- Baylink 15:41, 24 Dec 2003 (UTC)

Reading the provided article, I'm finding that the sensors wired to the harness were four in number, not sixteen. Also, the article mentions a variety of recollections about what the "original" pronouncement of the law was. Among them:

“If that guy has any way of making a mistake,” Murphy exclaimed with disgust. “He will.”
His statement was too long, and it really didn’t fit into a Law. So we tried many different things and we finally came up with, ‘If it can happen, it will happen.’”
And at the time I believe Stapp said something like, ‘If anything can go wrong he’ll do it.’

There is also some mention in the article that, according to George Nichols, the problem with the sensors was likely Murphy's poor design, and that "Murphy's Law" came about in discussion among the entire team, in what seems like almost a mockery of Murphy's original statement and his attitude that the problem was the fault of his assistant. Do we need to correct the article, to at least bring it in agreement with the fact that the origins of the Law are not entirely certain? -- Wapcaplet 01:56, 18 Apr 2004 (UTC)

OK, I've done a pretty much complete rewrite. Comments welcome. -- Wapcaplet 04:01, 18 Apr 2004 (UTC)

Instead of (or beside?) ancient floppy drives you can mention AT-style motherboards that could be connected to the powerblock two ways - only one was correct (black wires together). You could easily insert them in the opposite manner, burning the motherboard.

Good example, though I think readers in general are far more likely to be familiar with the floppy disk example. I think we should stick with examples that most computer users can relate to. -- Wapcaplet 03:47, 28 Sep 2004 (UTC)

[edit] Explanation of removals

I hacked out some chunks. The tangent about how 5.25-inch floppies were designed to also be inserted upside-down seems unimportant, since there are still several incorrect orientations. The whole paragraph about some phantom "experimental data" that shows buttered bread is more likely to land butter-down has been replaced by a small qualifier "...regardless of the actual probability of either happening." I think the "experimental data" is entirely irrelevant to the impression people get that butter-down is likely.

Finally, I removed the bit about Sod's law being different and inaccurate. When dealing with a phrase that is under constant alteration, growth, and mutation (and when even the name of the law is under these effects), it seems very strange to talk of Sod's law being distinct from Murphy's law (especially when Sod's law redirects to Murphy's law), and equally strange to talk about what Sod's law "actually" says. -- Wapcaplet 19:00, 7 Oct 2004 (UTC)

[edit] Formula

Oh my. Okay, I don't think it's a problem for this article to link to a site about this formula for predicting the effects of Murphy's law, but I think it is completely ridiculous to have the formula explained in full within this article. The development of this formula can be little more than a joke, and does not appear to have any more scientific integrity than the proof Santa Claus doesn't exist. I am taking it out. -- Wapcaplet 16:06, 13 Oct 2004 (UTC)

There was a formula section in the article again that I removed. The reason is the same as described above. The formula is explained in two external links, it's not lost for Wikipedians interested in it.

Please comment here if you feel it should be included as part of the article again. — Ocolon 07:33, 15 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] "Theatrical context"

A recent anonymous contribution added "While the proverb behind Murphy's Law existed as early as 1941, when it was quoted in a theatrical context..." A reference for this would be nice. If none is forthcoming, I will probably remove the statement. Certainly, the proverb behind Murphy's law has most likely been around forever; it was not "Murphy's Law" before the rocket sled tests, though. -- Wapcaplet 02:15, 23 Oct 2004 (UTC)

[edit] Bread and butter

Contributed on October 24:

Note here that there exists a scientific explanation of why the slice of bread has a bigger chance to fall on the buttered side : Start from the scenario where the buttered slice is on the border of the table. It falls when its gravity center is located outside of the sustentation area (the table). At this point, the part outsite of the table goes doan and the one inside rises up, hence the slice starts turning. Considering that the butter is denser than the bread, and accounting the friction of air on the slice drop, one can easily conclude that this is this position that will be kept after the rotation stabilizes (by friction). Usually the rotation hasn't stopped at the moment the slice hits the ground, but during each rotation, the slice spends more time buttered side down than buttered side up. Hence the bigger probability for the buttered slice to fall on the buttered side.

This almost certainly has no place in Murphy's law, but assuming this description is not dubious (and it very well may be), then we ought to put a mention of it somewhere! --Ardonik.talk()^* 00:48, Oct 25, 2004 (UTC)

It sure sounds dubious to me. The explanation may seem scientific, but unless there is experimental data to support it, it's just speculation. Fun speculation, but speculation nonetheless. And, as mentioned above, I think this has little or no bearing on the perception that butter-side-down is the most probable outcome. -- Wapcaplet 16:11, 29 Oct 2004 (UTC)

It depends on the weight of the spread, I'd say. Lots of lumpy jam on there and perhaps I can agree with the theory. I guess a small amount of butter may bias the probability but only slightly. Anyway, it's fine for this to be on a talk page but don't think it deserves a place in the article. violet/riga (t) 16:22, 29 Oct 2004 (UTC)

[edit] Buttered bread redux

I removed:

point of fact, because of the height of tables, a buttered piece of toasted bread starting buttered-side-up on the edge of a table only completes about half a revolution and therefore impacts buttered-side-down

If non-obvious claims of "fact" are to be included here, please provide references. Otherwise, it's just speculation. See above. -- Wapcaplet 00:18, 22 Apr 2005 (UTC)

Tumbling toast, Murphy’s Law and the Fundamental Constants
European Journal of Physics
16 172-176 1995
Why toasted bread lands buttered-side-down

Your revert is inappropriate because it is obvious that buttered toasted bread falling off of the edge of a table will land buttered-side-down. ¿What next? ¿Must I prove that roses are red and violets are blue?

— Ŭalabio 04:11, 2005 Apr 22 (UTC)

Well, it's not obvious to me. I don't see that table height much to do with Murphy's law as applied to buttered toast; toast sitting on a table doesn't seem likely to suddenly fall off--to me it seems more likely that toast will fall to the ground while being carried to or passed across the table, or in delivery to the mouth, or that other factors aside from gravity and airflow are at work (you're working on slicing your steak, and the knife slips, sending the toast end-over-end across the dining room). The reference you provided is sort of hard to take seriously, when the author talks of tying the toast to a cat, and the electromagnetic and chemical constants determining the height of humans, which thus in turn determine the height of tables, and so (assuming ideal conditions) the likelihood of toast landing buttered-side down.

I don't mind having a link to such an article, but I don't think it should be presented here in Wikipedia as though it were a self-evident fact. -- Wapcaplet 23:59, 22 Apr 2005 (UTC)

Well, if one places a buttered piece of toasted bread on the edge of a table with the center of gravity over the edge, it will tumble to the floor. It will make about half a revolution. This is a function of the height of the table and the length of the toast.

— Ŭalabio 01:16, 2005 Apr 23 (UTC)

I just did a little experiment. Not with toast, but with a CD in a cardboard sleeve (about the same shape and weight). Indeed, if I very slowly push the CD to the edge of my desk until it falls, it tends to flip over. But if I push just a little faster, enough that the CD lands about a foot away from the desk, it tends to stay upright. Pushing faster still makes the CD glide erratically and land pretty randomly. Denser toast (with lots of butter) is less affected by air resistance. Allowing toast with peanut butter could change the landscape completely.

I guess what I'm saying is that it takes too many artificial constraints to make the toast land upside-down more often. -- Wapcaplet 05:48, 30 Apr 2005 (UTC)

Whilst on the subject of scientific explanations. Buses coming in 2s or 3s is nothing to do with murphy's law. A common reason is as follows. A bus(X) is late, therefore more people have gathered at the 1st stop, hence the busX takes longer to load up the people. The bus behind (Y), sets off on time, however as the bus in front (X) picked up more passengers than usual the bus behind (Y) has less passengers to pick up, therfore taking less time. As the bus infront (X) took longer than normal to load up passengers it is now slightly later than it was orignaly. The next stop will contain an even greater percentage of people than the first stop. This leads to Bus (Y) having a smaller percentage to normal again, so taking less time and catching up even further. So they will eventually catch up. It is common to see 3 together on longer routes.

Variations in business at peak times etc can also cause this. Plus there are all sorts of possible areas for variation. But that is the basic rational reason. So nothing to do with things going wrong

However as many people don't know this reasoning and blame such a situation as a number of buses arriving simulataneously on murphy's law perhaps it should keep a place in the article. (particularly as many things seen as murphy's law often have a perfectly logical explanation) . Missing a particular bus or 'your' bus being late is perhaps more applicable to murphy's law.

I'll leave it to someone else to change though. Matt S 15/2/06

THE BUTTER SIDE IS HEAVIER YOU FLAMING MORONS!

[edit] Buttered Cat

I've always had an admittedly less humorous but more likely take on the strapping buttered toast onto a cat problem: The cat will land on its feet, and immediately roll over to try and get the toast off its back.

[edit] Non-Murphy?

It seems to me that a couple entries in this article are NOT representations of Murphy's law. Such non-Murphies include:

"A Smith & Wesson beats four aces."

This doesn't mean "Anything that can go wrong..." nor does

"The light at the end of the tunnel is that of an oncoming train."

That's just pessimism, to me.

"Whenever you set out to do something, something else must be done first."

How is this a representation of Murphy? If I've overlooked any, or you think I'm wrong, feel free to drop me a line and let me know. HubHikari 23:08, 19 March 2006 (UTC)

"Buses take ages to arrive, but when they do they always arrive in sets of three (in Britain 'you wait ages for a bus, then two come along at once!')."

The Murphyishness of this one too is questionable. In fact if I recall correctly, I once read that this was a real phenomenon which can be given a causal explanation and/or simulated on computer. Think about it: the first bus clears the traffic and passangers allowing the second and perhaps the third bus to catch up. Then you end up with a group of two or three busses now the next bus has extra work to do because the second (and third) bus are essentially useless. Thus the next bus takes ages again to arrive. Jimp 16:09, 23 March 2006 (UTC)

Where I live, buses can overtake each other but they still arrive in groups of threes. This is because the first one stops for the large crowd waiting, 2 and 3 overtake, then 2 has to stop for the crowd at the next stop, then 3, then back to 1. 218.102.220.129 13:01, 24 May 2006 (UTC)

Now I notice someone's already given this explanation above. You go typing up a long spiel only to find you're just repeating what's already been said ... Murphy's Law.

Anyhow ... is this Murphy's Law: with the busses? Three busses at once: what's wrong with that? Jimp 16:24, 23 March 2006 (UTC)

Wrong because you've been waiting for 3 times longer than the timetable says. (Exactly 3 times longer because according to Murphy's, you just missed the last set of 3 buses when you got to the stop.) 218.102.220.129 13:01, 24 May 2006 (UTC)

I always thought making it "five" aces makes more sense-means the shootee obviously goofed up his attempt at cheating, and paid the price-seems to fit in with the general philosophy here... John DiFool 11:56, 25 March 2006

I went ahead and removed some of the more blatantly non-murphysims, though I left some of the things that I think are just stupid but have a minor correlation to Murphy's law or some of its variations (especially the last one) 201.56.21.11 02:07, 25 April 2006 (UTC)

I dunno, I find the "Four Aces" one pretty murpyish. You get a good hand in poker, and someone robs it.--Sabre90 22:42, 10 October 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Proposed replacement of section four, maybe a major rewrite

It seems to me that all of the supposed examples of Murphy's Law listed in section four of this page are not examples of Murphy's Law, but rather popular expressions of irrational pessimism. Murphy's Law does not state that buttered bread will always land butter-side down, but, to the limited extent that the example is relevant at all, merely that it will eventually land butter-side down. But Murphy's Law isn't about dropping buttered bread, or any other random event beyond human control. It is about the inevitability of humans making mistakes. If a system is engineered such that a mistake can be made, eventually that mistake will be made. That's Murphy's Law, not the ridiculous claim that the mistake will be made every single time, and certainly not the meaningless claim that negative random events happen more often than they actually happen, nor the curious but irrelevant observation that certain negative random events happen more often than one might expect.

For example, if a peripheral connector on a computer is symmetrical, and connecting it with the incorrect orientation will cause hardware damage, someone will damage the hardware by connecting it incorrectly. Murphy's Law is not the absurdist claim that human beings are incapable of ever plugging anything in right-side-up; merely the observation that they are collectively incapable of doing everything correctly every single time, and thus that all modes of failure will eventually be explored.

Most of the examples don't even have any relevance to either of these, and refer simply to pessimism in general. (It is a stretch to relate "The day you forget your umbrella, it pours with rain" to poor engineering.)

In light of this confusion, I am tempted to remove section four altogether and replace it with a brief discussion of some examples of popular misconstructions of Murphy's Law. If I'm feeling especially energetic, I might rewrite some of the opening sentences to emphasize that point, and weed out some of the other irrelevant meandering discussion in later sections. Because this is a drastic change that is sure to upset someone, I'll let this comment sit for a couple of days before doing so. --dreish~talk 15:12, 25 May 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Plenitude Principle

Doesn't this relate to the Plenitude principle, and if so, should there be a reference to it? Oscabat 03:22, 29 March 2006 (UTC)

Technically, this would be more a reference to Finagle's Law, by which we come to the old debate over pessimism versus optimism. The debate arises as to whether Finagle's Law really is the same as Murphy's Law, given that the first sentence seems to suggest this. I would suggest that Finagle's Law ("If anything can go wrong, it will" or something like that) is different from Murphy's Law, which suggests that if there is more than one way to do something, someone will do it the wrong way - this is actually an optimistic law, given that we can thus know if and when a problem will occur. In the context of the current article, however, there perhaps should a reference. Cyril Washbrook 00:20, 1 May 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Differentiating Finagle's Law and Murphy's Law

I think we need to draw the line between Finagle's Law and Murphy's Law. Essentially, Finagle's Law is the law of pessimism, stating that there is effectively no point trying something because it will always go wrong. Murphy's Law is a law of hope, in many ways, in that it refers to the fact that if there is more than one way to do something, someone will do it the wrong way. I don't have any problems with people removing the bit that I added, given that it would require a slight redress of the article as well as sourcing of reliable references. This may also influence whether we consider the Plenitude principle outlined above. Cyril Washbrook 00:20, 1 May 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Fixed opening sentence

...that things will go wrong in any given situation [adding:] in which error is possible.

I'm not sure why the original description left out the heart and soul of Murphy's law. It does NOT state that "things will go wrong in any given situation". It states that if error is possible, then that error will occur. In other words, if a bridge collapses 0.00000001 percent of the time, then it is certain of collapsing. A bridge that collapses 0.0 percent of the time will not collapse.

[edit] Should page be used for "May be"

I noticed on the main page there is now three links to other meanings for Murphy's law. Should the page be moved so that it can be used for Murphy's law may refer to? Lummie 13:48, 10 May 2006 (UTC)

I've added a disambiguation page for the other uses as it was getting too cluttered on the main page. Lummie 02:24, 31 May 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Murphy's Laws of Combat Operations

I have jusy added a list compiled by me from many various sources (both online and off) of Murphy's Laws of Combat Operations. I kinda thought that a [age on Murphys Laws should include a little (hah!) section on the military side as well. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by rgbriggsy112 (talk • contribs) date.

To whom it may concern, FYI

This eventually became Murphy's laws of combat, which as of the moment, survived an AFD, and is now proposed for mergeto back into this article.

The discussion on the merge proposal is here. // FrankB 15:44, 3 January 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Apple Superstrings

I'm trying to find out if there's been any real scentific study of the Murphy-like behaviour of cords, especially, for instance, those of iPod earbuds, as well as any behind your desk right now.

It seems to me apparent that any two cords placed within a certain distance of one another will, as soon as you look away, immediately knot themseves numerous times. If placing a pair of iPod earbuds in a pocket, no matter how smoothed they are and not matter how quickly they are removed from said pocket, they will be knotted upon removal. If you are wearing drawstring trousers, they may, in fact, be knotted with your trousers.

Of course, I can only state this on a talk page, as Wikipedia has rules against stating the blatantly obvious (i.e. no original research), which is also the reason I am not signed in under a user account, as I feel that the association of a name to myself without citation would, in fact, serve as original research thus, by self-identification without expert validation. The IP address given my posts, on the other hand, can be considered to be cited from a valid external internet router and not of my own creation or the rightfully reviled original thought that might otherwise permeate a location populated by seemingly intelligent people. Further, if such a me made me sound cool (or any other way), it might be considered POV.

69.181.120.218 03:36, 1 July 2006 (UTC)

I can assure you that cords don't get magically tangled. I'm rather confused as to what you're trying to say in the later paragraph. It doesn't matter whether you have an account or not, it will still be original research. You were the one who made the above post, not your IP address. Nil Einne 14:20, 9 September 2006 (UTC)

I think you're lacking a Sarcasm Sensor, Nil Einne. :P I'm pretty sure the anonymouse was poking fun at the way the "no original research" policy is implemented, and the (allegedly) anal-retentive nature of citation-happy Wikipedians. In other words, it's satire. Quite blatant satire. Actually quite good satire, IMO. 4.235.69.150 17:54, 10 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Bad example, removing it

"* Your girlfriend is about to send you a nude picture of her over the internet and her camera breaks."

Wikipedia is not exclusively for young boys. I'm removing that line. --82.183.224.40 09:24, 25 July 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Horrible Pessemism

Man these laws irritate me. Redirect it to pessemism. Or mental retardation.

This article has depressed me so much I'm going to commit suicide.

[edit] Examples

The examples in this article seem rather anecdotal to me. They do illustrate the concept of Murphy's law, in a fashion, but I had a hard time taking them seriously. It just seems to be a list of humorous observations of bad luck and inconveniences that somebody compiled. Additionally, I feel that there are too many listed; I'm going to go ahead and prune a few out. Angrycrustacean 08:30, 25 August 2006 (UTC)

Pruned even more examples out. Not only is there no need for a massive list of examples, but many of the examples being added are not even related to Murphy's Law. The article explains Murphy's Law in more than enough detail, there should be no need for more than a few (as in, two or three) examples. I'm going to wait for more feedback and/or opinions, and then possibly greatly reduce the examples section to the two or three of the more exemplary lines. Angrycrustacean 08:10, 30 September 2006 (UTC)

Why oh why has this article been totally abandoned and articles like Your mom get a fine tooth comb treatment? I removed a bunch of examples and rewrote a few to be more concise. Also removed three or four links in the "See also" section that were only related to Murphy's Law insofar as they were laws themselves. I've never before seen a Wikipedia article that was so long(and significant) and yet so hopelessly cluttered, but then I may as well just fix it instead of whining. Angrycrustacean 04:58, 5 October 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Gregory Bateson's entropy

-Why do things get in muddle?

What do you mean? Thing? Muddle?

On "tidy" and "muddle"

"[...] There are more ways which you call 'untidy' than there are ways which you call 'tidy',..."

Gregory Bateson, "Steps to an Ecology of Mind", pp3-8, Chandler Publishing Company, Toronto, 1972

Takima 14:51, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Merging

I know the proposed article is large, but taking notable examples from it (Such as "Friendly fire isn't friendly") and discussing it in context with Murphy's law canon would not make the article too large. Pumeleon^T 23:35, 16 December 2006 (UTC)

I'm against it. While Murphy's Laws of Combat share a name, they're really a completely different thing.Alternator 15:09, 1 January 2007 (UTC)

I agree. They are funny, but are more a collection of funny sayings, and less related to the "If anything can go wrong..." spirit of Murphy's Law. --Jerle0 06:26, 24 January 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Who said

"When you want something to happen it does'nt, but when you don't want it to happen it does" Culnacréann 19:43, 21 December 2006 (UTC)

[edit] My edit, 07:05, 17 February 2007

I refined the wording a bit and transposed the links for "Sod's law" and "Finagle's law". First, what most people (incorrectly) cite as Murphy's law (that "anything that can go wrong, will go wrong") belongs to "Sod's law", while "Finagle's law" distinctly adds "at the worst possible time". Tony Myers 07:10, 17 February 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Irritation

Who do some people get so irritated or upset with these laws? What makes them go mad? These are, after all, a set of simple statements emnated from everyday wisdom. Why to stumble upon them? —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Aniljay (talk • contribs) 14:13, 4 March 2007 (UTC).

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