Talk:Ross McKitrick

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Contents 1 Chris Chittleborough 1.1 30-Nov-2005 2 Rv by Sirks 3 Blogs 3.1 Links to Deltoid Broken 3.2 RealClimate's description of Energy and Environment 4 The Thacker Attacker 5 Corrigendum 6 Meat of the matter 7 McI? 8 Degrees vs. Radians and Latitude 9 BLP problems with links? 10 EL problem with links 11 Compromise? 12 This page

[edit] Chris Chittleborough

...has been making some edits I regard as dubious. Under one headed "add details" he has removed "The corrigendum did not affect the results, however"... perhaps a detail that he finds inconvenient? Also "and that the global warming reported by MBH depends on the inclusion of data from a few bristlecone pines in California" is total nonsense. Also there is now far too much Mann on this page... one presumes that McK has some kind of life outside attacking Mann. William M. Connolley 17:25, 9 November 2005 (UTC).

Chris Chittleborough 17:43, 9 November 2005 (UTC): I'm open to debate about the changes I've made. My basic aim was to add detail; I've also tried to clean up some wordy passages. Thanks to Mr. Connelly for catching my stupid mistake re "The corrigendum did not affect the results, however". M&M have repeatedly claimed that their reconstructions of MBH98 lose the hockey stick shape if you take the bristlecones out. Since McKitrick's critique of MBH is his best-known (and, arguably, most important) work, I think it is appropriate to include some details.

(Now to see if our edits cross again! Third time lucky?)

I have made a number of changes. Firstly, removing the list of papers makes no sense (for someone who was adding more detail). Feel free to flesh out the list if you like, but don't take it away.

Second, you coyly describes M&M's nature submission as "declined". The usual word is "rejected", and I see no reason for euphemism here.

Why have you archived the previous talk page. Where the discussion has already taken place. We can of course just add M&M side of the story.--MichaelSirks 12:16, 11 November 2005 (UTC)

Because it was mostly discussions with the banned septic JonGwynne. William M. Connolley 12:39, 11 November 2005 (UTC).

If you insert that the paper is rejected by Nature you should also insert McKitrick side of the story.--MichaelSirks 12:11, 15 November 2005 (UTC)

Third you describe A&W as rejected. I think its in press. But if you can provide a proper ref for the rejection, feel free to supply it.

Maybe we should not base a encyclopedia on stuff which hasn't been published yet, like your blog realclimate.org suggests.--MichaelSirks 12:16, 11 November 2005 (UTC)

Indeed, we shouldn't be reporting tittle. Do you have a point here or are you just trolling again? William M. Connolley 12:39, 11 November 2005 (UTC).

I never troll. My comments are always on topic. My question still stands and you obiously have broken your parole again.

You agree that we should not refer to papers which are still in press or are not published and then you put the paper of A&W back in the article. --MichaelSirks 12:11, 15 November 2005 (UTC)

Fourth, you write selected only part of the available data for analysis without explanation (the unused data being kept in a directory named "BACKTO_1400-CENSORED"). This makes no sense. MBH used all the data they had. If you think otherwise, please find a ref for it.

and that the global warming reported by MBH depends on the inclusion of data from a few bristlecone pines in California which are known to be poor proxies for temperature This too makes no sense: the upward portion of the hockey stick is from instrumental data, and can't be affected by 1000-y old data.

MM don't claim; The essence of their claim is that the statistical technique used by MBH has a built-in tendency to produce an upward trend over the last century as an artefact of the data-processing. Their main point is that MBH statistical technique and their reliance ristlecone pines produces hockey sticks. Where the main problem is in the Stick rather than in the blade. Look like you want to create a strawman. Please feel free to add a reference.--MichaelSirks 12:16, 11 November 2005 (UTC)

I have to plead guilty to putting that text in there http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Preferences

My preferences[1] but in defence it was a replacement for garbled nonsense. If you can produce a better summary of M&M's claim, feel free. William M. Connolley 12:39, 11 November 2005 (UTC).

William M. Connolley 18:10, 10 November 2005 (UTC)

[edit] 30-Nov-2005

While cleaning up some bad grammar in the "Criticism of Mann et al" section, I noticed an out-of-place link to [2] at the end of the section. As far as I can see, this link is totally irrelevant to Dr. McKitrick. Anyone disagree? Chris Chittleborough 10:23, 30 November 2005 (UTC)

Probably a hangover from the wars. If you went to climateaudit I suspect you'd find a post on that paper that would be a more... errmmm... McK-centric view of that paper and probably more appropriate for the page. William M. Connolley 16:47, 30 November 2005 (UTC).

[edit] Rv by Sirks

In general every where Mann et al says something you state it as a matter of fact, everwhere McKitrick says something you insert the words "He claims". --MichaelSirks 12:11, 15 November 2005 (UTC)

You have removed without any attempt at justification A paper claiming to show this was rejected by Nature.. I know this is embarrsing for them, but it is indefensible to delete it.

Your source for the rejection of the paper is McKitrick himself. But you don't want to mention why it was rejected according to McKitrick. This clearly a very bias way to use sources. A rejection by Nature is not the same as saying that your paper is flawed or worthless. Suggeting it does is very misleading. By not mentioning that it was rejected I hoped circumvent this controversy.--MichaelSirks 21:11, 15 November 2005 (UTC)

We can be certain of the rejection. We can't be certain of the reasons, since McK obviously wants to present himself in the best light. Simply stating that it was rejected seems the most neutral thing to do. William M. Connolley 21:36, 15 November 2005 (UTC).

I still think it is interesting to add McKitrick's side of the story but by adding the line that GRL has accepted their paper it is a bit less bias so I will let it rest.--MichaelSirks 21:19, 16 November 2005 (UTC)

You have altered The corrigendum did not affect the results, however. to Mann et al claim that the corrigendum did not affect the results, however. This is indefensible, and shows that you simply don't know what is going on. *No-one* (not even M&M) claims the corrigendum affects the results. It couldn't: it ws simply a restatement of the materials used. The results, as it says, were entirely unaffected.

You have a point the sentence should have read; "The incomplete corrigendum did not affect the results, however." Because you now have admitted yourself that there are mistakes which aren't mentioned in the corrigendum.--MichaelSirks 21:11, 15 November 2005 (UTC)

I've said no such thing: you're making things up. Asserting that the corrigendum is incomplete is simply your personal opinion and has no place here. William M. Connolley 21:36, 15 November 2005 (UTC).

Here is the bit[3];

Ah, thank you, thats rather more helpful than referring us to somewhere in a 5-page thread. I've also looked at the Science article (don't bother look at the paper, its in the online additional material). Its a throw-away comment by von S. Its probably an error in MBH98, though I haven't verified that. Its very unlikely to be of any significance (for the obvious reasons), UNLIKE M&M's degree/radian error which completely scrambled their dataset. William M. Connolley 10:34, 20 October 2005 (UTC).

So you have admitted that it is propably an error. If you changed your mind please let me know. And it hasn't been mentioned in the corrigendum. Also this error was known at the time of the corrigendum. If the error has a big effect or small effect is not important.--MichaelSirks 21:19, 16 November 2005 (UTC)

Haven't M&M commented on the corrigendum in a way we can reference?

Rd232 ^talk 22:41, 15 November 2005 (UTC)

Yes there is. [4]--MichaelSirks 21:19, 16 November 2005 (UTC)

You've also censored the reply http://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/Mann/EEReply.html and A&W: http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2005/ammann.shtml.

I read your reaction in the above section that we shouldn't refer to unpublished paper as an approval for removing this reference. When will the paper of A&W be published I can't wait.--MichaelSirks 21:11, 15 November 2005 (UTC)

I said we shouldn't ref tittle tattle. A press release from a reputable institute isn't. William M. Connolley 21:36, 15 November 2005 (UTC).

Which all goes to show that your skepticism is unreasonable like your edits. William M. Connolley 12:51, 15 November 2005 (UTC).

And that from the person who just a section earlier admitted that he misrepresented the views of M&M and who has admitted that it was his purpose to discredite McKitrick.--MichaelSirks 21:11, 15 November 2005 (UTC)

More wild invention on your part. William M. Connolley 21:36, 15 November 2005 (UTC).

your admission that you had misrepresented the views of M&M(see the sectin above)

and that the global warming reported by MBH depends on the inclusion of data from a few bristlecone pines in California which are known to be poor proxies for temperature This too makes no sense: the upward portion of the hockey stick is from instrumental data, and can't be affected by 1000-y old data.

MM don't claim; The essence of their claim is that the statistical technique used by MBH has a built-in tendency to produce an upward trend over the last century as an artefact of the data-processing. Their main point is that MBH statistical technique and their reliance ristlecone pines produces hockey sticks. Where the main problem is in the Stick rather than in the blade. Look like you want to create a strawman. Please feel free to add a reference.--MichaelSirks 12:16, 11 November 2005 (UTC)

I have to plead guilty to putting that text in there http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Preferences

My preferences[5] but in defence it was a replacement for garbled nonsense. If you can produce a better summary of M&M's claim, feel free. William M. Connolley 12:39, 11 November 2005 (UTC).

your admission that your purpose was to discredite M&M[6] :::M&M didn't make a mistake in degrees and radians I think you mean McKitrick in a not related article made that mistake.

Of course M&M did. But McK and McI don't have a trademark on the M&M label.

And thereby deliberately misleading people who read this talk page. --MichaelSirks 20:40, 20 October 2005 (UTC)

That is the reason why I am amazed that you want to mention it here. You give the impression that you want to suggest that McKitrick doesn't know the differnce between radians and degrees.(thereby suggesting that you can't trust the work of M&M.)

On the latter point, definitely. William M. Connolley 20:15, 20 October 2005 (UTC).

It doesn't surprise me, but now it is in writting.--MichaelSirks 20:40, 20 October 2005 (UTC)

I've removed the increasingly excessive detail - this page is about McKitrick, not the work by McKitrick and McIntyre, or even the validity of MBH. If anyone wants to move the detail I've lost elsewhere, I think the revision to work from would be this one. I also made some other changes (to publications). Rd232 ^talk 14:24, 15 November 2005 (UTC)

I've undone some of your changes (inc the rejection). I still think removing the papers list is a mistake but have lived with it. As a sop to MS, I've added that A+W "claim to" have replicated MBH.

Also, I've corrected the sci pub from 7 to 6: although he claims the Nature corrigendum as a publication, this is a distinctly dodgy thing to do: the corrigendum is authored by MBH, not M&M!

This page has been fought over so much its in a poor state. It doesn't do a good job of explaining M&M's complaint against MBH (which I think should be here if anywhere).

William M. Connolley 21:36, 15 November 2005 (UTC).

I just reverted MichaelSirks since he reverted me without explanation. Rd232 ^talk 21:26, 15 November 2005 (UTC)

Hmmm. In retrospect, I'll agree with you re the reply and A&W. William M. Connolley 21:39, 15 November 2005 (UTC).

I'm not at all convinced this the best place for details of M&M criticism of MBH. This is fundamentally a page on McKitrick; unless the criticism is so unfounded and so non-notable that it may as well be here, I think it should be somewhere more clearly related to the substance of MBH. I think there should only be enough detail here to clarify who McKitrick is and what sort of thing he's done. Rd232 ^talk 22:41, 15 November 2005 (UTC)

You have removed the heading criticism of McKitrick. It now looks if the comments of Tim Lambert are on the paper of McKitrick an McIntyre. This not the case his critcism is on a totaly non related paper. This should be clear.

In principle I would agree that this article shouldn't go into detail(for instance the cosine error), but WMC wants to discredite McKitrick.

The other changes are explained in the talk above. --MichaelSirks 21:34, 16 November 2005 (UTC)

"It is now accepted that the corrigendum was incomplete.[3]" - accepted by whom? I'm sorry, this is too vague. In fact, the link you supplied says "Nature responded to our concerns about the defects in the draft Corrigendum in a very unsatisfactory way." This suggests exactly the opposite - that there is no general agreement that it is was incomplete. Am I missing something here? Guettarda 21:49, 16 November 2005 (UTC)

This is bad use of passive voice - we should say who's accepted what. Rd232 ^talk 22:49, 16 November 2005 (UTC)

The link is the response of MM to the corrigendum which Rd232 asked for. The corrigendum is incomplete because the paper contains errors which are dealt with in the corrigendum. It is the cosine error of Mann which now is accepted by WMC and by Tim Lambert.

Here is the bit[7];

Ah, thank you, thats rather more helpful than referring us to somewhere in a 5-page thread. I've also looked at the Science article (don't bother look at the paper, its in the online additional material). Its a throw-away comment by von S. Its probably an error in MBH98, though I haven't verified that. Its very unlikely to be of any significance (for the obvious reasons), UNLIKE M&M's degree/radian error which completely scrambled their dataset. William M. Connolley 10:34, 20 October 2005 (UTC).

So WMC admitted that it is propably an error. If he changes his mind please let me know. And it hasn't been mentioned in the corrigendum. Also this error was known at the time of the corrigendum. If the error has a big effect or small effect is not important--MichaelSirks 22:36, 16 November 2005 (UTC)

I still don't understand. Our articles aren't self-referential - it doesn't matter what editors think. The statement needs a reference - the ref provided actually suggests the opposite, that M&M's position was not accepted generally. Guettarda 19:37, 18 November 2005 (UTC)

Maybe we can turn it around. Can you give me one scientist who thinks that this isn't an error. If You can find one you may reverse this section.--82.210.112.138 20:10, 18 November 2005 (UTC)

Huh? Since when does our policy require negative proofs? The link provided suggests the exact opposite of the text. As per policy it should be removed. Guettarda 20:17, 18 November 2005 (UTC)

This is mad. You can't quote a long screed (I haven't actually read it all, but G doesn't think it supports your case) by M&M as evidence of what is generally accepted! You *can* quote me as evidence, but only if you are consistent in adopting my views in general, which I suspect you would be reluctant to do. William M. Connolley 20:25, 18 November 2005 (UTC).

I tried to make it easy for you, but your right that we don't require a negative proof.(just one scientists who disagrees) The link I provided was for Rd232. (see above) I can refer to climateaudit[8] or to the blog of tim lambert[9](comment186). To quote Tim Lambert; So that to weight by area, the input to PCA has to be weighted by the square root of area. I retract my sugestion that von Storch might have been mistaken — he found an error in MBH98. Or in scienceScience--MichaelSirks 20:43, 18 November 2005 (UTC)

I still don't understand you. We already *know* that M&M don't like Mann. You don't need any more links to them to prove that. And what is the Science link for? William M. Connolley 20:47, 18 November 2005 (UTC)

I honestly don't understand what MichaelSirks is talking about. Why are you adding links to the article for Rd232? And how is it "making it easy" by asking other people to disprove your insertion? I am not saying it shouldn't be there. If it's both accurate and relevant, then maybe it should be there. But you provide no evidence that the statement is accurate, and follow up by asking other people to disprove the statement. You should really read up on Wikipedia policy - starting with the link I provided. Guettarda 20:53, 18 November 2005 (UTC)

If you read the whole section you will encounter this;

Haven't M&M commented on the corrigendum in a way we can reference?

Rd232 ^talk 22:41, 15 November 2005 (UTC)

Yes there is. [10]--MichaelSirks 21:19, 16 November 2005 (UTC)

To WMC; I have given two links which have nothing to do with M&M. These to links state that MBH have made a mistake. This mistake isn't corrected or mentioned in the corrigendum. So the corrigendum is incomplete. To Guettarda; It sometimes easier to give a negative prove. If I claim that every scientist agrees on something. You can easely disprove this by naming one scientist who disagrees. --MichaelSirks 21:12, 18 November 2005 (UTC)

Your insertion says "It is now accepted that the corrigendum was incomplete.[11]". In my experience, ref's pertain to what comes immediately before...if the ref contradicts what comes immediately before, you say "but see...". As for your point about disagreement - I'm not interested in playing games. Finding one person to disagree with something is what lawyers do. If you cannot support a statement, it doesn't belong here. Our job is to document what's out there. If it's that hard to find a reliable source to support your assertion, then it can't be "accepted". What is the basis for your assertion? You haven't even bothered to say "yes, I have spoken about this to dozens of my colleagues and all agree". While that would still count as original research, at least it would mean that you had a good starting point for your assertion and it might be worth leaving in while you track down a citation. Instead you go for "prove I'm wrong"; not a valid argument in adult discourse. You really need to come better than that. We are supposed to be writing an encylcopaedia here. Guettarda 21:37, 18 November 2005 (UTC)

I give 3 links which support my point of view. I haven't found any link which disproves or disagrees with this point of view. So to talk about negative proof is not correct. Maybe the link for Rd232 should be on an other place.--MichaelSirks 21:55, 18 November 2005 (UTC)

Three links? Two links to blogs and one link to Science (what, all of it?) Please - Guettarda 21:59, 18 November 2005 (UTC)

The last time you asked this on 19 October I pointed you to "Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data Hans von Storch, Eduardo Zorita, Julie M. Jones, Yegor Dimitriev, Fidel González-Rouco, and Simon F. B. Tett Science 22 October 2004; 306: 679-682; published online 30 September 2004 [DOI: 10.1126/science.1096109] (in Reports)". Perhaps your memory is as weak as your good faith. 00:32, 2 December 2005 (UTC)

I think that Rd232 has got it about right. Fine work!--82.210.112.138 17:24, 19 November 2005 (UTC)

[edit] Blogs

Unlike what the anon said, I have never had a problem with blogs as sources - I said that you can't consider a link to a blog as evidence that "it is now accepted that the corrigendum was incomplete". Guettarda 00:58, 2 December 2005 (UTC)

What about Science (see ref above)? 02:12, 2 December 2005 (UTC)

[edit] Links to Deltoid Broken

While trying to tighten up the "Criticism" section (any comments, BTW?), I discovered that Tim Lambert's blog, "Deltoid", has moved to a different server and lost its archives. I gather that Dr. Lambert is getting his archives restored. When this happens, we should link to his criticism of McKitrick and Michaels again. Chris Chittleborough 06:28, 13 February 2006 (UTC)

Nevermind. I found a link: http://timlambert.org/2004/08/mckitrick6 ... article fixed. Chris Chittleborough 06:54, 13 February 2006 (UTC)

On the article I think someone misquoted Tim (criticising mann), so I deleted the quotation. It was under the "McKitick, criticisms of" so even if correct it was in the wrong spot. Making the article confusing. I will look into it and if it was ineed wrong I will simply let it as it is.

Yep, checked. I deleted something that said that Mann et al got their latitudes wrong when it was in fact M&M. http://timlambert.org/2004/08#mckitrick6 they messed up their angles and did not account for latitude. "If you do calculations and get degrees and radians mixed up, you get the wrong answer. Which is what McKitrick did. His analysis included a variable cosablat, which was supposed to be the cosine of absolute latitude. Trouble is, the software he used expects angles to be measured in radians, his data has latitude in degrees, and he didn’t convert from degrees to radians." http://timlambert.org/2004/08#mckitrick6

Thus, As I said above, they did not just misquote Tim, but even if the misquotation had been right, it would have been on the worng part of the wikipedia entry. Thanks

[edit] RealClimate's description of Energy and Environment

I've reworded the text about E&E being a social science journal, in an attempt to decrease the POV, though I may have swung it too far the other way. I could use some peer-review here, guys.

More substantially, there is an on-going dispute about the status of E&E. Should we have an article about it? Will anyone volunteer to create/edit it? (My hand is not up.)

Chris Chittleborough 07:16, 22 February 2006 (UTC)

E&E is a very low status "journal". Its peer review policies are vague; it doesn't (I believe) appear in the ISI citation index. Were it not for its happy of publishing dodgy papers on GW, it would certainly not be notbale. I don't really see an ongoing debate about its status though. I've reworded the re-word a bit, though I'm amenable to 6-2 rather than 4+2 if you feel strongly. I don't really see the need to link to RC's desc of E+E. William M. Connolley 09:43, 22 February 2006 (UTC).

You're right, Dr Connolley: E&E does not show up in Thomson ISI's Master Journal List. I like your version of this text better than mine; in fact, I'd say you've nailed it. (I made 2 small changes: linked ISI to Institute for Scientific Information, s/two/2/ for consistency). At some stage I'll propagate your text into the McIntyre article. —Chris Chittleborough 10:46, 22 February 2006 (UTC)

[edit] The Thacker Attacker

A anonymous editor has been inserting POV material into this article and the Stephen McIntyre article. The aim seems to be to discredit M+M by (1) not mentioning any of their publications except the Energy and Environment paper, (2) quoting from and/or linking to attacks on E&E[12] and McIntyre[13] in Environmental Science & Technology written by a journalist[14] named Paul D. Thacker, and (3) cleverly describing ES&T as a "science journal", whereas Thacker writes for the news and opinions section of ES&T.

Why do I say "editor" instead of "editors"? Because these IPs all resolve to the acs.org domain, which is owned by the company that publishes ES&T. (They also publish the journals, newsletters etc of the American Chemical Society; hence the domain name.)

Now go and read Mr Thacker's article. It is not science. It is not good journalism. It is very bad journalism. It is a collection of invited ad-hominen attacks on McKitrick and McIntyre.

Someone from Mr. Thacker's workplace seems very eager to see Mr. Thacker's article mentioned in these articles. In a saner world, Mr. Thacker would be trying to suppress all knowledge of this shoddy piece of journalism for the benefit of his career.

Incidentally, Energy and Environment was described as "a leading international journal" by Rajendra K. Pachauri of all people, at an IPCC meeting !

Chris Chittleborough 06:37, 22 February 2006 (UTC)

Chris Chittleborough, if E&E doesn't appear in the ISI (which doesn't appear to be under dispute), it isn't remotely a leading journal; surely that is beyond dispute. There is no match for the string "Energy and Environment" in the document you link to that supposedly attributes this view to Pachauri. Crust 17:02, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

No, E&E is not a leading journal. McIntyre & McKitrick's publications in GRL etc are much more significant in terms of showing at least some acceptance of their demolition of MBH98 and its successors.

I thought Pachauri's description of E&E was amusing, not informative. You need quite a lot of background information to "get it". Searching that PDF for the string I put in quote marks would be a good start.

Cheers, CWC(talk) 17:48, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

OK, now I get it. That was one subtle joke. ;) Crust 18:01, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Corrigendum

I've re-inserted the C does not affect the results. It doesn't. I don't think this is open to dispute. The C merely corrects the listing of various datasets, as I understand it, to what were actually used in the study. Who says otherwise? William M. Connolley 21:00, 25 April 2006 (UTC)

After a long discussion we agreed on a certain text and now you just want to re-insert the old text. Secondly your revert results in a incorrect sentence.( M&M and say ???)--MichaelSirks 21:30, 28 April 2006 (UTC)

The C doesn't adres the above mentioned error so it is incomplete. So please explain why it is POV to put that in.--MichaelSirks 21:33, 28 April 2006 (UTC)

Hi, Dr. Connolley (and Michael). McKitrick and McIntyre claim[15] that

1. the changes in dataset do matter (search for "extrapolation of the Gaspé series"),
2. the C. omits several known defects in MBH98, especially Mann et al's "failure to describe the subtraction of the 1902-1980 mean prior to tree ring principal components calculation", and
3. the explanation in the C. for the difference between the series MBH98 said they used and the series they actually used cannot be true.

(Please read that link itself; I am not confident I have accurately summarized it.) I don't feel up to attempting an encyclopedia-worthy summary of this stuff at present; when I do, I'll stick it in the article for other editors to improve.

Cheers, CWC(talk) 06:30, 29 April 2006 (UTC)

The C doesn't affect the results. They are the same now as they were before. As to what M&M say... I'm not going to wade through all that. But I guess you can William M. Connolley 07:43, 29 April 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Meat of the matter

We need a summary of MM's critique of MBH98. Merely saying tha McKitrick disgrees with (or dislikes?) Mann is not enough. This is not a gossip column.

Can't we put some science into this article? McKitrick is engaging in a scientific dispute with Mann, and wiki readers would probably like to know a bit about his arguments, in simply terms which laymen can understand.

For example, doesn't McKitrick say Mann puts undue weight on a particlular pinecone (bristlecone) series?

Then there's the whole matter of whether there was a Medieval Warm Period - which means the Hockey Stick graph is inaccurate. Laymen place great store in the hockey stick as "proving" the GW theory. --Wing Nut 14:14, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

Laymen shouldn't: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/01/what-if-the-hockey-stick-were-wrong/ etc etc William M. Connolley 18:38, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

That's your own web site, which you and Mann run. Might you not be biased in this matter? (No offense, meant, doc.) --Uncle Ed 19:50, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

Its not mine, but I do help out. I'm pointing you to a posting on it. You don't have to accept it as gospel, but you might try reading it, since it attempts to correct some common errors William M. Connolley 20:23, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

[edit] McI?

There is the question of he partnership with McIntyre... I have the impression that McI, certainly now, is doing far more of the work William M. Connolley 18:39, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

I've wondered about that also. Crust 18:20, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Degrees vs. Radians and Latitude

The current article includes the following text:

Among other things, Lambert found a bug in which the input to a cosine function was in degrees instead of radians. The authors have acknowledged the error and published a corrected version. They claim that the effects were "very small", that the correction "improved the overall fit", and that their overall conclusion was unaffected.

I thought the angles being input to the cosine function were latitudes. Needless to say, latitude is a very important variable for temperature. And switching degrees with radians will totally mangle latitudes so that the Arctic will sometimes look like the tropics and vice versa. Is the claim that the effects of the correction were "very small" credible? I suppose since we're talking about global mean temperature, it's possible there's a numerical coincidence and the corrections happen to cancel. Crust 18:20, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

Ross McKitrick accepted the error when it was pointed out, and published his recalculations. So we have his statements about it to quote [16] [17] (unlike Michael Mann and his error on cosines of latitude). 21:41, 24 July 2006 (UTC)Comment by user 213.122.129.201 (talk • contribs)

User:Ed Poor's recent edits explain what happened. Basically, McKitrick and Michaels did an analysis of variance, and latitude did not correlate with warming (change in temperature, not temperature itself) whereas economic facts did. So the bug (speaking loosely) added pseudo-randomness into the data, which is why fixing it "improved the overall fit". Cheers, CWC(talk) 18:55, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

Right, that's a good point: change in temperature not temperature itself. That makes sense. Crust 19:31, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

The paragraph is still POVish - the Lambert site is a personal polemic and TL's linked reference is WP:OR. Attempt at neutral description: the "bug" was a "cross cultural" discrepancy in transliteration of an undocumented angular dimension in the MBH paper (according to MM) where "accepted practices" do vary. In pure mathematics and some science courses, angles are implicitly meant as radians and are considered "dimensionless", angular units not reported; in common usage angles are reported in degrees. In science, engineering and other papers, practices have varied, one often explicitly notes units - degrees, grad, rad, revolution, mil, hours for technical papers or liability. According to the M&M statements, there was no archived computer code or other detailed documentation to check against.--I'clast 22:01, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

the "bug" was a "cross cultural" discrepancy in transliteration of an undocumented angular dimension in the MBH paper (according to MM) where "accepted practices" do vary is a feeble attempt to excuse M. He put in his input in the wrong units, having failed to check - thats all. Its a bug - it doesn't need a fancy name. *Linking* to stuff isn't OR. William M. Connolley 08:45, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

What's wrong with web sites which contain personal polemics? We quote Naomi Oreskes on the question of how many scientists support, oppose (or are undecided about) the GW theory, even though she hangs a partisan action message on her findings.

I don't think there's any way to untangle the science from the politics. Not with 2 billion dollars a year of government money being spent to advance one side of the argument. --Uncle Ed 14:26, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

The "cross cultural" bit reads like parody. Crust 13:26, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

No, sigh. Mathematicians and people from mathematical fields, eg., numerical programmers, tend to think in radians. Engineers think in degrees. Result: lots of Engineering students getting the same wrong answer to certain programming assignments. (Of course, it's better that they learn about this problem before they graduate!) I guess economists also think in degrees. "Culture clash" is a good description or an apt analogy, I'm not sure which.

So the description WMC removed is basically correct, though wordy, but the current text is just as correct. Terse is good.

On a more important point: the more you know about numerical programming, the less you'll trust most of the scientific papers that rely on lots of computing. There's an analogous problem with people doing analyses of variance without understanding the statistical methods and tests they use, especially (legend has it) psychology grad students. — CWC(talk) 14:21, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Exactly the point the Joe Barton committee made: the paleoclimate community should have sought out more help from the statistics community (read that as, "Please doublecheck this before I publish). McKitrick says that putting evenly distributed random numbers into Mann's graph generator gives hockey stick shapes every time. That's a red flag right there.

Now I haven't seen Mann's computer program, so I can't check what McKitrick says. But it's a serious charge, especially in light of the fact that Mann dragged his feet on sharing his data and methods.

Again there are two POVs on this: (1) government funded scientists should be free to choose which data and methods to conceal, for as long as they want, even after publishing journal articles intended to affect government policy; and (2) government funded scientists should be required to publish ALL data and methods related to journal articles which describe their research. (My own POV is that they should have to publish everything, even false starts and obvious mistakes, on a National Science Wiki, but that's just between us contributors; not for inclusion in the articles.)

The conflicts over what data and methods were revealed, and when, should be in Wikipedia.

Comments by statistics experts who have reviewed the data and methods should be in Wikipedia. --Uncle Ed 14:35, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

If you haven't looked at Manns code its because you haven't bothered to look for it. Its available via http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/mbh/, for example.

M&M make two contradictory claims: that Manns code always produces HS; and that the HS shape crucially depends on a very few proxies. The contradiction doesn't seem to bother them very much

BTW, as far as I can tell, Stephen McIntyre deserves far more of the credit tham McK William M. Connolley 15:12, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

All 3 of you points should be in Wikipedia (probably in this article or linked from it). Are you the source, O notable one? Or shall we look for another? (Messianic dig offered free of charge to an old pal ;-) --Uncle Ed 15:17, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Thats Manns code is available, rather than not, is no great secret. The credit between M&M... less clear (note that M&M for deg/radians is *not* McI, who gets indignant when people forget that). That M&M contradict themselves... that particular point is, AFAIK, my own William M. Connolley 15:47, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

"the "bug" was a "cross cultural" discrepancy in transliteration of an undocumented angular dimension in the MBH paper (according to MM) where "accepted practices" do vary is a feeble attempt to excuse M." No, it is not. To me, an independent Wiki reader, the current text & Deltoid link might imply to many less conversant Wiki readers about varying units treatments, M&M are idiots, rather than even say sloppy, stumbling in the dark or out of cultural-technical mileu. An unsympathetic treatment.

"Tim Lambert has criticised ..." Tim already gets his credit and Wiki article link for finding the error. Since Tim is not the subject, the added harsh, specific Deltoid link seems excessive. I was hoping for replacement with a more dry, balanced academic link to discuss the nature of the computation problem. Tim's site link, as used, lambastes the subject's error as a huge hard to miss item, off 57x (in the input) vs the output view where the discrepancy in total change was not even sqrt{} or log{}, but purportedly, a slightly negative, very weak function that reflects the actual methodology of the M&M point.

Some technical societies that have strict units reporting in papers, required for *every* variable. These societies would tend to see the MBH paper as slightly defective for M&M to even have made this mistake in a vacuum. Some entities are getting more anal about units reporting due to international projects and actual adverse loss experience, ie Mars Polar Lander, from a discrepancy in units in software.

The precise timing of MBH code & output availability vs M&M development seems to be a detailed conversation that exceeds my attention span. Perhaps this could be clarified in Talk. But I have to say I am not so sure that even SE (scientists & engineers) picking through accreted spaghetti code and personal scratch routines are likely to find a given error (one usually finds some interesting artifacts, miss others, next class of grad students pls).

Purely based on Dr Connolley's statements above, "shape of sticks" vs "sticks" doesn't seem mutually exclusive (contradictory). Some sticks could have 45deg blades vs 85deg blades, or, humped, snaggle-toothed or straight handles depending on data, right?

PS: It's not *my* article or subject, but I would encourage an improvement in tone in that paragraph.--I'clast 10:53, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

[edit] BLP problems with links?

I am puzzled as to how this link is problematic with regards to either BLP or EL. Someone care to explain (Chris?) Guettarda 20:54, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

People are increasingly using over-strict interpretations of BLP as excuses to remove stuff they don't like William M. Connolley 21:30, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

Edit conflict with Prof Q's comment below

People are increasingly using feigned inability to read to insert links to shoddy hit-pieces into articles about people they don't like.

</mockery>

You could argue that the link to that pathetic, misleading, unethical hit-piece passes WP:BLP. You might even be right; I have either remembered WP:BLP wrongly or lost track of the (steady stream of) changes to WP:BLP. ("Unsourced or poorly sourced questionable material, whether negative or positive, in articles about living persons should be removed immediately and should not be moved to the talk page." Therefore, any attempt to put even a summary of Thacker's hit-piece into the article would violate WP:BLP, but apparently linking to it not violates only the spirit of WP:BLP, not the letter.) I apologise for my incorrect edit summaries.

BTW, American journalistic ethics requires contacting the subject(s) of the article, giving them a chance to respond and reporting that response, but Thacker did not do that. See here. For a long list of factual errors made by Thacker, see here.

Note Thacker's smears: "they’re quacks", put in the mouth of someone who has is on record as saying he never said any such thing, and they've "done incredibly stupid things". Also Dr. Famiglietti says that Thacker used something he said in a misleading way.

Nonetheless, as I repeatedly pointed out in my edit summaries, that link does violate WP:EL. To see any editor blithely ignore that point is disappointing. To see people with long-standing, well-known off-wiki feuds with McKitrick putting this sort of link into the article is really, really disappointing.

I repeat: even if someone who the link passed WP:BLP was plainly wrong to reinsert it when I clearly stated that it violated WP:EL.

In other words, passing the one does not excuse violating the other.

That is, the link has to pass both criteria.

More technically, acceptability is a conjunction, not a disjunction.

Why am I repeating this obvious point? Because at least two editors here just don't get it.

On the WP:EL problems:

• Avoid "A page that contains factually inaccurate material or unverified original research". This contains both.
• "Each link should be accompanied by a detailed explanation informing the reader which point of view it presents." Not given.

(Aside: As already pointed out, Thacker's piece was not peer-reviewed, despite the title of the magazine in which it appeared, was obviously not fact-checked and does not qualify as journalism. It therefore would not be acceptable as a WP:RS.)

Guys, this is not rocket science! I'm amazed that editors as experienced as Guettarda and WMC would have any difficulty with this.

Cheers, CWC(talk) 05:15, 28 October 2006 (UTC)

[edit] EL problem with links

Chris, please explain why you think the Thacker link violates EL. The article appears factually correct (nearly all scientists dismiss McKitrick's work, and he is promoted by WSJ and similar sources), and while there are some striking quotes, the tone of the article itself is reasonable. JQ 02:57, 28 October 2006 (UTC)

See my comment above, written before my edit conflict with Prof Q. See also my comment further above, written somewhat earlier. (BTW, Prof Q, do you remember Paul Keating taking a swipe at the Australian media for not having a "get the subject's response" rule? If so, do you remember when he did that?) Regards, CWC(talk) 05:15, 28 October 2006 (UTC)

I think you're misinterpreting EL here. "Poorly sourced" doesn't mean that we should exclude material from otherwise appropriate source publications because (it has been alleged that) the writer in question did a bad job with the sources. It means we shouldn't cite personal web pages and similar. As regards "get the subject's response", while I don't remember PK saying this, it merely emphasises my point - I assume you don't mean to argue that, since Australian media do not follow this rule, reference to Australian media reports violates EL. In the Wikipedia context, we can easily get the subject's response by linking to Climate Audit's response, and that's what we should do. JQ 05:51, 28 October 2006 (UTC)

Please, Prof Q, you're doing it again. I said that EST article contained "factually inaccurate material" and "unverified original research". If it's factually inaccurate, it's prohibited. If it's unverified OR (that is, not a RS), it's prohibited. It has to be both accurate and RS to get through. (And no, I was merely curious about Paul K and Aus media ethics from having skimmed the journalism article earlier today.)

Or are you arguing that a news item in ES&T counts as a reliable source? I've demonstrated that it is not reliable in any sense of the word, let alone qualifying as a WP:RS.

Further, anyone who regards "quacks" and "incredibly stupid things" as reasonable comment that can be attached to a BLP article probably should either find other articles to edit, or start making an energetic attempt to overcome their obvious confirmation bias. I'm sincere here: to me it is plain that WMC and JQ suffer from confirmation bias regarding McKitrick, McIntyre and Climate Audit. That does not mean they should stop editing those articles, only that they should take more care than they currently do when editing those articles. How seriously they take this unsolicited advice is up to them, of course! (My own policy is to avoid editing articles about individuals I dislike, and be doubly careful when I do edit articles such as Michael Fumento. That makes it very hard for my own biases to cause BLP problems. Luckily, only one of the articles I edit is about someone I'm strongly biased towards, and he's (1) not controversial and (2) not living.)

Cheers, CWC(talk) 06:08, 28 October 2006 (UTC)

It seems to me that you have this almost exactly back to front. Here's the claims made by ES&T about their status

Environmental Science & Technology is #1 in total citations and #1 in impact out of 35 journals in the category of engineering, environmental with 39,785 total cites and an impact factor of 4.054.* ES&T is also #1 in total citations and ranks #5 in impact factor out of 140 journals in the environmental sciences...Published twice monthly, ES&T is a unique source of information for scientific and technical professionals in a wide range of environmental disciplines. In its research section, contributed material may appear as current research papers, policy analyses, or critical reviews. Also included is a magazine section called the A-Pages that provides authoritative news and analysis of the major developments, events, and challenges shaping the field.

Unless these claims are totally bogus, it's pretty obvious that ES&T is a WP:RS. As I understand it, you want to exclude an external link to a particular critical article on the basis that (as posted in a blog) the subject didn't like it, and wasn't satisfied with the responses he got when he emailed people who were quoted there. It's perfectly reasonable to include this response, but I think you're way off-beam in your interpretation, which would essentially preclude any links to criticism of public figures.JQ 06:23, 28 October 2006 (UTC)

I'm sure ES&T-the-journal is a fine institution. That hit-piece has nothing to do with ES&T-the-journal. I already said that; please read what I write more carefully. (That exercise in repetition above is not my typical style.) Prof Q, can I say that you seem to be reaching very hard to find a way to avoid a rather obvious conclusion: the link is not acceptable. Cheers, CWC(talk) 06:54, 28 October 2006 (UTC)

I'm honestly not following you. The link goes to the journal website from which I quoted the material above. And Factiva gives the following publication details which seem to run pretty strongly against your claim that it has nothing to do with ES&T-the-journal.

HD How a global-warming skeptic became famous

BY Thacker, Paul D

WC 105 words

PD 1 November 2005

SN Environmental Science & Technology

SC ESCN

PG A436

VOL Volume 39; Issue 21; ISSN: 0013936X

LA English

CY Copyright (c) 2005 ProQuest Information and Learning; All Rights Reserved.

This seems to me to be exactly the same as editorial or news material in Nature or Science. Are you saying that this isn't allowed? If so, what about links to articles in, say, the New York Times about which there is disagreement? —The preceding unsigned comment was added by John Quiggin (talk • contribs).

This seems to me to be exactly the same as editorial or news material in Nature or Science. Are you saying that this isn't allowed? If so, what about links to articles in, say, the New York Times about which there is disagreement?

There is no problem with ext links being OR. Nor, apparently, does CC have any problem with this link appearing on the McIntyre page. So quite what he is up to I don't know William M. Connolley 08:54, 28 October 2006 (UTC)

WMC, you are quite wrong. Read WP:EL. ELs to OR are not allowed if the OR is unverified, meaning peer-review, fact-checkers or the like.

I do have a problem with the link remaining in Stephen McIntyre. My last edit was dedicated to cleaning up the existing links, not adding or removing links; I tried to indicate that in my edit summary. I'm not sure that the link is consistent with wikipedia's rules, but I do see the argument that we have a detailed listing of Thacker's factual errors to link to, and it's barely possible that the Thacker-McIntyre controversy is notable. On the other hand, WMC, your last edit there violated WP:EL 3 times. Please do better.

JQ, if you were trying to discuss this honestly, you could not have written that last comment, because you would have taken the few minutes required to answer the question yourself. Until you do that reading, you are wasting your time here, and mine. I know you're a smart bloke, so I conclude that you are being lazy. (Don't get me wrong: in my world, laziness is a virtue.)

But I will explain where my recent heightened concern for WP:BLP comes from: David Gerard and Jimbo Wales. The policy-makers keep tightening up WP:BLP. One of the reasons for my "avoid articles about individuals I don't like" policy is so I don't need to keep close track of the changes to WP:BLP ;-).

BTW, JQ, I wikified your comment above; you should also read the Help:Editing page sometime. Best wishes, CWC(talk) 09:23, 28 October 2006 (UTC)

Oh, I forgot to say that the Thacker hit-piece is over 3,500 words long, so there's something screwy with those publication details. CWC(talk) 10:42, 28 October 2006 (UTC)

I think the publication details are for the abstract, which is what Factiva offers. Having said that, I'm a bit annoyed at your repeated imputations of dishonesty. I honestly can't make sense of what you are claiming here. So, let me ask you whether your claim is that an external link to what would normally be regarded as a reputable source is not allowed under WP:EL if the piece linked to contains factual errors? If that's not what you'ce claiming, can you quote the part of WP:EL you think is relevant here, and say how it applies.JQ 12:45, 28 October 2006 (UTC)

To JQ. Getting angry here. Did not call you dishonest; you are not dishonest. Not a RS, already said that. Very angry at your persistent failure to read what I write. Please go back and re-read my comments properly. If you cannot be bothered at least pretending to engage in this discussion, why are you here? To repeat: you are repeatedly completely ignoring/forgetting what I've written here. The point of discussion pages is discussion, not repeatedly asking questions that have already been answered. (Also, your failure to read the linked page properly is alarming.) Seriously, either start reading what I write properly, or find some other part of Wikipedia that needs your undoubted expertise. Better yet, read this discussion to see where I'm coming from. (I somehow doubt that you've read it yet. I hope you understand that I put it there because I think you need to read it.)

From your link "Some controversies require quoting others who use emotional language - those we put in proper NPOV encyclopedic context." This seems right, particularly in the context of an external link to what is clearly a reputable source. The appropriate thing here is to summarise the article linked, and also to link to McIntyre's response. JQ 23:56, 28 October 2006 (UTC)

Short version: (1) It's not a RS. (2) You are unintentionally being very annoying.

Why oh why oh why do you care that Wikipedia implicitly slurs a non-famous Canadian academic? Would you be happy for Wikipedia to put a news item labelling you as a "quack" who did does "incredibly stupid things" one click away from the article about you?

In fact, here's a question I entreat you to answer: Do you believe those labels apply to McKitrick? I'm sure that an honest person would have no hesitation in answering that.

Anticipating an answer, CWC(talk) 14:00, 28 October 2006 (UTC)

On your question, these are emotive descriptions and would be inappropriate as Wikipedia text. But McKitrick has made very silly errors (not just the degrees-radians thing, but his claims about there not being a global average temperature) and he presents himself as an expert on topics where he has no qualifications. In both cases, the underlying motive is political partisanship. The terms quoted are emotive restatements of these judgements JQ 00:06, 29 October 2006 (UTC)

WMC, you are quite wrong. Read WP:EL. ELs to OR are not allowed if the OR is unverified, meaning peer-review, fact-checkers or the like. Nope, its you that are wrong. Firstly, thats a guideline, not a rule. Secondly it doesn't say "not allowed", even the guideline only says normally to be avoided. You have repeatedly said things like it's prohibited when this is certainly false. Many (most) links on WP would fail the absurdly high standards you are trying to claim for links you don't like.

But rather more than that, you have asserted that the Thacker article is inaccurate. Your source for this assertion is a CA post. I've just read it. That post doesn't back up your assertion at all. It mostly consists of McI contacting various people and their responses. If you think the Thacker article is substantially inaccurate, then I think you need to list those inaccuracies. A quick skim seems to indicate to me that its a fair summary on the factual points, with some bias toards a particular viewpoint. One that you dislike, clearly. Your repeated asserting that this isn't a RS is bizarre, so its not odd that people are meeting you with incomprehension William M. Connolley 15:07, 28 October 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Compromise?

I think we need a compromise re [18]. I suggest simply "was rejected". Its not clear that mcks website is a reliable source; and CC clearly has problems with RC William M. Connolley 10:33, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

I disagree. It is very clear (or at least should be very clear) that Professor McKitrick's website is completely acceptable as a Reliable Source for certain topics, from the "Self-published and questionable sources in articles about themselves" part of WP:ATT.

Nature explained quite clearly why they "must decline to publish" M&M's comment.

In the light of this detailed advice, we have regretfully decided that publication of this debate in our Brief Communications Arising section is not justified. This is principally because the discussion cannot be condensed into our 500-word/1 figure format (as you probably realise, supplementary information is only for review purposes because Brief Communications Arising are published online) and relies on technicalities that do not bring a clear resolution of the underlying issues.

This comes from an email from Rosalind Cotter dated 3rd August 2004, available on McKitrick's website; emphasis added. William, your long-standing and deep hostility to M&M and all their works is quite notorious (see above), so I'm sure you would like to believe that the comment was rejected for demeaning reasons, but Nature themselves said otherwise, so that's what we have to go with.

And, of course, Wegman agreed with M&M's criticism of MBH98. Someone ought to include that in the article.

BTW, WP:RS has been demoted to a guideline again; its return to policy status sure didn't last long! Cheers, CWC 17:12, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

His website is reliable as a source for what he has to say, but when there is a conflicting opinion you can't say that "X is the case"; NPOV requires us to acknowledge both opinions (or do like William suggested and just stick to the facts. Guettarda 17:18, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Disregarding the tedious nonsense part of CCs text and trying to stick to the point: ATT makes 2 exceptions: the first is non-contentious (this isn't); the second doesn't seem to apply either since it is talking about their own work, not reposts of others. Whether or not the email is genuine is unknown; whether out of context, ditto. My main aim here is to avoid a tedious edit war. What we know for sure is that (a) it was rejected (b) McK says he has an email saying it was for space (c) RC says it was "based on negative appraisals by reviewers". My preference would be not to fight over which of b or c we include but to use a only. If we have one of b or c we should have both (unless there is some other source that can be definitive; but given this is peer-review, which is usually confidential, its unlikely) William M. Connolley 17:42, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

NPOV policy points to including a, b & c. The alternative, as William said, would be just a. Obviously we can't include b without c. Guettarda 17:47, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] This page

My opinion is that this page is terribly badly written - a hodgepodge. I don't care enough to fix it; I'm just inviting someone else too (and whilst I don't care enough to fix it I do care enough to check the re-write for NPOV).

Also, I added a new section on McK's latest. Personally I consider it laughable, but I don't think Ive said so - please feel free to adjust this a bit. I may have pushed the bounds a bit with the Rabett link William M. Connolley 19:17, 27 March 2007 (UTC)