Wild card (Foresight research)
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In decision theory, "wild cards" refer to low-probability, high-impact events. This concept may be introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to increase the ability of organisations adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business environments. Such sudden and unique incidents might constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. Wild cards may or may not be announced by weak signals, which are incomplete and fragmented data from which foresight information might be inferred.
[edit] References
- Mendonça, S., M.P. Cunha, F. Ruff and J. Kaivo-oja (2006), "Wild cards in the civil aircraft and asset-management industries", forthcomming in Long Range Planning.
- van Notten, P., A.M. Sleegersb, and M. van Asselt (2005), "The future shocks: On discontinuity and scenario development", Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72 (2), pp. 175-94.
