Overpopulation

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Overpopulation is the condition of any organism's numbers exceeding the carrying capacity of its ecological niche. In common parlance, the term usually refers to the relationship between the human population and its environment, the Earth.

Overpopulation is not simply a function of the size or density of the population, but rather the number of individuals compared to the resources (for example, food production or water resources) needed for survival or well-being. Overpopulation can be determined using the ratio of population to available resources. If a given environment has a population of ten, but there is food or drinking water enough for only nine, then that environment is overpopulated; if the population is 100 individuals but there is food, shelter or water enough for 200, then it is not. Overpopulation can result from increases in births, a decline in mortality rates due to medical advances, from an increase in immigration, a decrease in emigration, or from an unsustainable use and depletion of resources. It is possible for very sparsely-populated areas to be "overpopulated", as the area in question may have a very meager or non-existent capability to sustain human life (e.g. the middle of the Sahara desert or Antarctica).

The resources to be considered when evaluating whether an ecological niche is overpopulated include clean water, clean air, food, shelter, warmth, and other resources necessary to sustain life. If the quality of human life is addressed as well, there are then additional resources to be considered, such medical care, employment, money, education, fuel, electricity, proper sewage treatment, waste management, and transportation. Negative impacts should also be considered including crowding stress and increased pollution. If addressing the environment as a whole, the survival and well-being of species other than humans must also be considered.

Overpopulation is also related to issues of birth control, with some nations like China using strict measures in order to reduce birth rates, while religious and ideological opposition to birth control has been cited as a factor contributing to overpopulation and poverty.^[1]

Contents 1 Overpopulation predictions 2 Population growth 2.1 The demographic transition 2.2 Population projections 3 Resources 3.1 Food 3.1.1 Population as a function of food availability 3.2 Fresh water 3.3 Land 3.4 Ecological footprint 3.5 Energy 3.6 Wealth and poverty 4 Environment 5 Overpopulation by world region 5.1 Petén region of Guatemala 5.2 Madagascar 5.3 India 5.4 Arizona 6 Effects of overpopulation 7 Extraterrestrial population projections 8 Overpopulation as a theme in fiction 9 References 10 Further reading 11 See also 11.1 Concepts 11.2 Issues 12 External links

[edit] Overpopulation predictions

Main article: Malthusian catastrophe

In An Essay on the Principle of Population (first published in 1798), Thomas Malthus proposed that while resources tend to grow linearly, population grows exponentially. He argued that, if left unrestricted, human populations continue to grow until they would become too large to be supported by the food grown on available agricultural land, causing starvation which then controls population growth. He argued that this had happened many times previously in human history and estimated that this would occur again by the middle of the 19th century. To avoid this happening, Malthus argued for population control through "moral restraint". While arguably he was right about human history up to his time, he made his prediction for the future exactly at the time the industrial revolution and a similar revolution in agriculture caused a very large increase in available resources. His specific predictions therefore failed because he used a static analysis, and extrapolated his historical numbers into the future without considering factors that could increase the resource base available to humanity faster than he thought, (for example, the revolutions in agriculture at his time or later the Green Revolution), or factors which cause population growth to decline or reverse, (for example, the demographic transition).

On a global scale, since the industrial revolution, food production has grown faster than human population. However, it has been argued that other changes impacting earth's ability to function as a suitable habitat for human beings, such as global warming, desertification, overfishing and other environmental problems caused by industrialization, will eventually affect food production or factors necessary for well-being. Along with continued population growth, this may cause a Malthusian catastrophe.

Among the earlier best-known modern examples of such arguments are The Limits to Growth (1972) and The Population Bomb (1968). These reports have been subjected to criticism, and their predicted dates for such catastrophes have been proven false. The Limits to Growth stated that the world would run out of gold by 1981, mercury by 1985, tin by 1987, zinc by 1990, petroleum by 1992, and, copper, lead, and natural gas by 1993. The Population Bomb stated that that there would be a major food shortage in the United States in the 1970s and hundreds of millions of people were going to starve to death, leaving only some 20 million people alive in 1999. [2] [3]. (See Erlich's answer to his critics.)

David Pimentel claims that population outcomes for the 22nd century range from 2 billion people (characterised as thriving in harmony with the environment), to 12 billion people (characterised as miserable and suffering difficult lives with limited resources and widespread famine). [4]

The book The Little Green Handbook reasons that in 2050 about 7.7 billion people would be expected to suffer from illness, lack of adequate sanitation, hunger, and extreme poverty,^[2] provided that the high population estimates of year 2050 are realised.

In his recent book Collapse (2005), Jared Diamond argues that many earlier civilizations have collapsed due to environmental problems, and warns of current environmental problems. However, he also notes many situations in which humans have managed their natural resources well.

In The Skeptical Environmentalist, Bjørn Lomborg argues that, because of the falling rate of population growth in most parts of the world and because of new science and technologies, there is little problem with overpopulation. A rebuttal can be found here.^[3]

[edit] Population growth

[edit] The demographic transition

Main article: Demographic transition

The theory of demographic transition, while unproven to apply to all world regions, holds that within a generation after the standard of living and life expectancy increases, family sizes start dropping. Factors cited in the decline of birth rates include such social factors as later ages of marriage, the growing desire of many women in such settings to seek careers outside of child rearing and domestic work, and the decreased need of children in industrialized settings. The latter factor stems from the fact that children perform a great deal of work in small-scale agricultural societies, and work less in industrial ones; it has been cited to explain the dropoff in birth rates worldwide in all industrializing regions.

Another version of demographic transition is that of Virginia Abernethy in Population Politics, in which she claims that the demographic transition is primarily in effect for nations where women enjoy a special status (see Fertility-opportunity theory). In strongly patriarchal nations, where she claims women enjoy few special rights, a high standard of living tends to result in population growth. She argues that foreign aid to poor countries must include significant components designed to improve the education, human rights, political rights, political power, and also to equalize the economic and sexual status and power of women.

Her theory runs counter to some of the available empirical evidence. For example Iran had a Total Fertility Rate of 1.82 children per couple in 2005, which is below the replacement rate of 2.1 to 2.3 children per couple needed to maintain population. Iran is widely perceived as a patriarchal nation, and yet any population growth that occurred there came not from increased birth rates, but from decreased mortality rates, and therefore not from a lack of reproductive rights.

"Demographic entrapment" is a concept developed by Maurice King that has not gained widespread acceptance. King argues that this occurs when a country has a population larger than its carrying capacity, no possibility of migration, and exports too little to be able to import food. This will cause starvation. He claims that for example many sub-Saharan nations are or will become stuck in demographic entrapment, instead of having a demographic transition.^[4]

For the world as a whole, the number of children born per women decreased from 5.02 to 2.65 between 1950 and 2005. Europe 2.66 to 1.41. North America 3.47 to 1.99. Oceania 3.87 to 2.30. Central America 6.38 to 2.66. South America 5.75 to 2.51. Asia (excluding Middle East) 5.85 to 2.43. Middle East & North Africa 6.99 to 3.37. Sub-Saharan Africa 6.7 to 5.53. In 2050, the projected number of children born per women is 2.05. Only the Middle East & North Africa (2.09) and Sub-Saharan Africa (2.61) will then have numbers greater than 2. [5]

A comparison of fertility rates in Italy and Sweden [6] suggest Italy is alleviating overpopulation more than Sweden due primarily to greater gender inequality and fewer social services, similar findings from the same source relate to Japan, Russia and Estonia. First and second world effects of social services and gender equality on overpopulation appear to be the opposite of those found in the third world.

[edit] Population projections

The United Nations states that:

• Almost all growth will take place in the less developed regions, where today’s 5.3 billion population of underdeveloped countries is expected to swell to 7.8 billion in 2050. By contrast, the population of the more developed regions will remain mostly unchanged, at 1.2 billion.
• Worldwide population is currently growing by more than 75 million people per year. Net growth by mid-century is predicted by the United Nations to be 34 million per year in contrast to the roughly 76 million per year that was seen from 2000 to 2005.
• In 2000-2005, fertility at the world level stood at 2.65 children per woman, about half the level it had in 1950-1955 (5 children per woman). In the medium variant, global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.05 children per woman.
• During 2005-2050, nine countries are expected to account for half of the world’s projected population increase: India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda, United States of America, Ethiopia, and China, listed according to the size of their contribution to population growth.
• Global life expectancy at birth, which is estimated to have risen from 46 years in 1950-1955 to 65 years in 2000-2005, is expected to keep on rising to reach 75 years in 2045-2050. In the more developed regions, the projected increase is from 75 years today to 82 years by mid-century. Among the least developed countries, where life expectancy today is just under 50 years, it is expected to be 66 years in 2045-2050.
• The population of 51 countries or areas, including Germany, Italy, Japan and most of the successor States of the former Soviet Union, is expected to be lower in 2050 than in 2005.
• During 2005-2050, the net number of international migrants to more developed regions is projected to be 98 million. Because deaths are projected to exceed births in the more developed regions by 73 million during 2005-2050, population growth in those regions will largely be due to international migration.
• In 2000-2005, net migration in 28 countries either prevented population decline or doubled at least the contribution of natural increase (births minus deaths) to population growth. These countries include Austria, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Qatar, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Arab Emirates and United Kingdom. [7]

Another United Nations report projects that world population will peak at 9.2 billion around 2075 [8]. [9] Birth rates are now falling in most developing countries, while the actual populations in many developed countries would fall without immigration. [10]

[edit] Resources

[edit] Food

The amounts of natural resources in this context are not necessarily fixed, and their distribution is not necessarily a zero-sum game. For example, due to the green revolution and the fact that more and more land is appropriated each year from wild lands for agricultural purposes, the worldwide production of food has steadily increased faster than population growth. World food production per person was considerably higher in 2005 than 1961. [11].

[edit] Population as a function of food availability

Thinkers such as David Pimentel,^[5] a professor from Cornell University, Virginia Abernethy,^[6] Alan Thornhill,^[7] Russell Hopffenberg^[8] and author Daniel Quinn^[9] propose that like any animals, human populations predictably grow and shrink according to their available food supply – populations grow in an abundance of food, and shrink in times of scarcity.

Proponents of this theory argue that every time food production is increased, the population grows. Some human populations throughout history support this theory. Populations of hunter-gatherers fluctuate in accordance with the amount of available food. Population increased after the Neolithic Revolution and an increased food supply. This was followed by subsequent population growth after subsequent agricultural revolutions.

Critics of this idea point out that birth rates are lowest in the developed nations, which also has the highest access to food. In fact, some developed countries have both a diminishing population and an abundant food supply. The United Nations projects that the population of 51 countries or areas, including Germany, Italy, Japan and most of the successor states of the former Soviet Union, is expected to be lower in 2050 than in 2005. [12] This shows that human populations do not always grow to match the available food supply; also, many of these countries are major exporters of food.

[edit] Fresh water

Despite advances in agriculture, the fresh water supplies that it depends on are running low worldwide. [13] [14] Some argue that this water crisis is only expected to worsen as the population increases. Lester R. Brown of the Earth Policy Institute argues that declining water supplies could well have future disastrous consequences for agriculture. [15].

However, the amount of freshwater is not necessarily limited to what is currently available in nature. Malta derives two thirds of its freshwater from desalination of salt water. This an energy intensive process. One possible solution is large expansion of nuclear powered desalination plants. Such plants already exist.[16] Some argue that there are available billions of years of nuclear fuel. [17]. Critics point to the high costs of desalination technologies, especially for poor third world countries, the impracticability and cost of transporting or piping massive amounts of desalinated seawater throughout the interiors of large countries, and the "lethal byproduct of saline brine that is a major cause of marine pollution when dumped back into the oceans at high temperatures" [18].

One study of the costs of desalination and its transport says that "Indeed, one needs to lift the water by 2000 m, or transport it over more than 1600 km to get transport costs equal to the desalination costs.^{[citation needed]} Thus, desalinated water is very expensive only in places far from the sea, like New Delhi, or in high places, like Mexico City. Desalinated water is also expensive in places that are both somewhat far from the sea and somewhat high, such as Riyadh and Harare. In other places, the dominant cost is desalination, not transport. This leads to relatively low costs in places like Beijing, Bangkok, Zaragoza, Phoenix, and, of course, coastal cities like Tripoli." Still, the study, while generally positive about the technology for affluent areas that are proximate to oceans, concludes that "Desalinated water may be a solution for some water-stress regions, but not for places that are poor, deep in the interior of a continent, or at high elevation. Unfortunately, that includes some of the places with biggest water problems" [19].

Newer agricultural technologies does not always require more water usage; for example hydroponics and green houses require less.

[edit] Land

World Resources Institute states that "Agricultural conversion to croplands and managed pastures has affected some 3.3 billion [hectares]—roughly 26 percent of the land area. All totaled, agriculture has displaced one-third of temperate and tropical forests and one-quarter of natural grasslands".^[10][11] Energy development may also require large areas, like for hydroelectric dams. Useable land may become less useful through salinization or desertification. Global warming may cause flooding of many of the most productive agricultural areas. Thus, available useful land may become a limiting factor.

Some claim that there will be no mass starvation due to a shortage of arable land. Autonomous building gardens and greenhouses grow more food in less space. High crop yield vegetables like potatoes and lettuce do not waste space with inedible plant parts, like stalks, husks, vines, and inedible leaves. New varieties of selectively bred and hybrid plants have larger edible parts (fruit, vegetable, grain) and smaller inedible parts. With new technologies, it is now possible to grow crops on some unarable land under certain conditions. Aquaculture could theoretically dramatically increase available area. Hydroponics and food from bacteria and fungi, like Quorn, may allow the growing of food without having to consider land quality, climate, or even available sunlight, although such a process may be very energy-intensive.

Some claim that not all arable land will remain productive if used for agriculture, as they argue that some marginal land can only be made to produce food by unsustainable practices like slash-and-burn agriculture. Even with the modern techniques of agriculture, the sustainability of production is in question.

[edit] Ecological footprint

Some groups (for example, the World Wide Fund for Nature [20] [21] and the Global Footprint Network [22]) have stated that the carrying capacity for the human population has been exceeded as measured using the ecological footprint. Critics question the simplifications and statistical methods employed in calculating ecological footprints. Some argue that there is nothing intrinsically negative about using more land to improve living standards. [23] [24] On the other hand, proponents would counter that there are many moral dilemmas inherent in geopolitically and temporally inequitable distribution of resources.

[edit] Energy

Enthusiasts have also been criticized for failing to account for future shortages in fossil fuels, currently used for fertilizer and transportation for modern agriculture. (See Hubbert peak and Future energy development.) They counter that there will be enough fossil fuels until suitable replacement technologies have been developed, for example hydrogen in a hydrogen economy. [25][26]

[edit] Wealth and poverty

The United Nations indicates that about 850 million people are malnourished or starving,^[12] and 1.1 billion people do not have access to safe drinking water.^[13] Thus some argue that the Earth may support 6 billion people, but only on the condition that many live in misery. Others posit that worldwide poverty is declining. The percentage of the world's population living on less than $1 per day has halved in twenty years; these are inflation adjusted numbers. [27]

[edit] Environment

Overpopulation has had a major impact on the environment of Earth starting at least as early as the 20th century.^[14] Many posit that the human population has expanded, enabled by over-exploiting natural resources, with resultant adverse impacts upon biodiversity, aquifer sustainability, climate change and even human health. There are also indirect economic consequences of this environmental degradation in the form of ecosystem services attrition.^[15] Beyond the scientifically verifiable harm to the environment, some argue the moral right of other species to simply exist, protected from human exploitation. Says environmental author Jeremy Rifkin, "our burgeoning population and urban way of life have been purchased at the expense of vast ecosystems and habitats. ... It's no accident that as we celebrate the urbanization of the world, we are quickly approaching another historic watershed: the disappearance of the wild."^[16]

These reflect the comments also of the United States Geological Survey in their paper The Future of Planet Earth: Scientific Challenges in the Coming Century. "As the global population continues to grow...people will place greater and greater demands on the resources of our planet, including mineral and energy resources, open space, water, and plant and animal resources".

Says Peter Raven, former President of AAAS (the American Association for the Advancement of Science) in their seminal work AAAS Atlas of Population & Environment, "Where do we stand in our efforts to achieve a sustainable world? Clearly, the past half century has been a traumatic one, as the collective impact of human numbers, affluence (consumption per individual) and our choices of technology continue to exploit rapidly an increasing proportion of the world's resources at an unsustainable rate. ... During a remarkably short period of time, we have lost a quarter of the world's topsoil and a fifth of its agricultural land, altered the composition of the atmosphere profoundly, and destroyed a major proportion of our forests and other natural habitats without replacing them. Worst of all, we have driven the rate of biological extinction, the permanent loss of species, up several hundred times beyond its historical levels, and are threatened with the loss of a majority of all species by the end of the 21st century".

In Facing the Limits to Growth the authors of the influential 1972 study "Limits to Growth" tell of the difficulty in getting the idea of the necessity of limiting human population growth past "Entrenched political, economic, and religious cliques". And they acknowledge that revision has been necessary, "Because of the long time horizon involved in our studies, we always realized it would require several decades to get any perspective on the accuracy of our forecasts", however, "the basic conclusions are still the same. We have modified our model only a little to reflect some better data about the effects of technology on land yields and birth rates."

“

Occasionally, however, there arises the potential for catastrophic overshoot [overpopulation]. Growth in the globe's population and material economy confronts humanity with this possibility. It is the focus of this book. The potential consequences of this overshoot are profoundly dangerous. The situation is unique; it confronts humanity with a variety of issues never before experienced by our species on a global scale. We lack the perspectives, the cultural norms, the habits, and the institutions required to cope. And the damage will, in many cases, take centuries or millennia to correct. But the consequences need not be catastrophic. Overshoot can lead to two different outcomes. One is a crash of some kind. Another is a deliberate turnaround, a correction, a careful easing down. We explore these two possibilities as they apply to human society and the planet that supports it. We believe that a correction is possible and that it could lead to a desirable, sustainable, sufficient future for all the world's peoples. We also believe that if a profound correction is not made soon, a crash of some sort is certain. And it will occur within the lifetimes of many who are alive today.[17]

”

Actual examples can, in fact, be found of the results of human overpopulation. In Collapse How Societies Choose to Fail or SucceedJared Diamond pieces together the data to argue that it was overpopulation that led the now extinct inhabitants of Easter Island (a.k.a. Rapa Nui) to destroy their once beautiful island paradise.

“

From at least AD 1000 to 1680, Rapa Nui's population increased significantly. Some estimate the population reached a high of 9000 by 1550 AD. Moai carving and transport were in full swing from 1400 to 1600, just 122 years before first contact with European visitors to the island. In those 122 years, Rapa Nui underwent radical change. Core sampling from the island has revealed a slice of Rapa Nui history that speaks of deforestation, soil depletion, and erosion. From this devastating ecological scenario it is not hard to imagine the resulting overpopulation, food shortages, and ultimate collapse of Rapa Nui society. Evidence of cannibalism at that time is present on the island, though very scant. Van Tilburg cautiously asserts, "The archaeological evidence for cannibalism is present on a few sites" [28].

”

See also the book Easter Island, Earth Island (ISBN 0500050651).

[edit] Overpopulation by world region

Overpopulation is easy to visualise by individual regions of the world, where causes and effects are simpler to identify than using a world summary; while there are dozens of presently overpopulated world regions, the following examples are representative:

[edit] Petén region of Guatemala

This region is inhabited by mostly indigenous peoples. The resource base is stretched thin by deforestation and inability of the fragile tropical forest soils to provide high yield agriculture. Decades of non-sustainable agriculture including considerable slash-and-burn activity by native peoples have left the region unable to feed or support the present population (in terms of food, drinking water, sanitation and other factors).^[18]

[edit] Madagascar

Massive deforestation with resulting desertification, water resource degradation and soil loss has affected approximately ninety percent of Madagascar's previously biologically productive lands. Most of this loss has occurred since independence from the French, and is the result of local people trying merely to subsist. The country is currently unable to provide adequate food, fresh water and sanitation for its population.

[edit] India

India also has enormous problems with overpopulation. The current population is over a billion, but India does not have the large land mass that China has. India is experiencing major problems with declining water tables due to over-extraction beyond sustainable yield.

[edit] Arizona

Paul Ehrlich made the point that a state or nation may have a large land area or considerable wealth (which implies, by conventional wisdom, that overpopulation should not be at play), and yet be overpopulated.^[19] The U.S. state of Arizona, for example, has enormous land area, but has neither the carrying capacity of arable land or potable water^[20][21] to support its population. While it imports food, using its wealth to offset this shortfall, that only serves to illustrate that it has insufficient carrying capacity. The only way that Arizona (and Southern California) obtains sufficient water is by extraction of water^[22] from the Colorado River beyond its fair share^[23] (and beyond its own carrying capacity of innate water resources}, based on international standards of fair use per lineal mile of river.^[24][25][26]

[edit] Effects of overpopulation

Some problems associated with or exacerbated by human overpopulation:

• Inadequate fresh water^[27] for drinking water use as well as sewage treatment and effluent discharge
• Depletion of natural resources, especially fossil fuels^[28]
• Increased levels of air pollution, water pollution, soil contamination and noise pollution
• Deforestation and loss of ecosystems^[29] that sustain global atmospheric oxygen and carbon dioxide balance; about eight million hectares of forest are lost each year[29]
• Changes in atmospheric composition and consequent global warming^[30]
• Irreversible loss of arable land and increases in desertification^[31]
• Mass species extinctions.^[32] from reduced habitat in tropical forests due to slash-and-burn techniques that sometimes are practiced by shifting cultivators, especially in countries with rapidly expanding rural populations; present extinction rates may be as high as 140,000 species lost per year.^[33]
• High infant and child mortality^[34]
• Increased incidence of hemorrhagic fevers, HIV and other infectious diseases from crowding, disturbance of ecological systems and scarcity of available medical resources
• Starvation, malnutrition^[35] or poor diet with ill health and diet-deficiency diseases (e.g. rickets)
• Poverty coupled with inflation in some regions and a resulting low level of capital formation
• Low birth weight due to the inability of mothers to get enough resources to sustain a fetus from fertilization to birth
• Low life expectancy in countries with fastest growing populations^[36]
• Unhygienic living conditions for many based upon water resource depletion, discharge of raw sewage^[37] and solid waste disposal
• High rate of unemployment in urban areas (leading to social problems)
• Elevated crime rate due to drug cartels and increased theft by people stealing resources to survive^[38]
• Conflict over scarce resources and crowding, leading to increased levels of warfare^[39]
• Over-utilization of infrastructure, such as mass transit, highways, and public health systems
• Higher land prices

[edit] Extraterrestrial population projections

Even as far back as 1798, Thomas Malthus stated in An Essay on the Principle of Population:

"The germs of existence contained in this spot of earth, with ample food, and ample room to expand in, would fill millions of worlds in the course of a few thousand years."

In the 1970s, Gerard O'Neill suggested building space habitats that could support 30,000 times the carrying capacity of Earth using just the asteroid belt and that the solar system as a whole could sustain current population growth rates for a thousand years.^[40] Marshall Savage (1992, 1994) has projected a population of five quintillion throughout the solar system by 3000, with the majority in the asteroid belt.^[41] Inhabitants of the asteroid belt may risk disaster caused by their home world colliding with other asteroids. Arthur C. Clarke, a fervent supporter of Savage, now argues that by 2057 there will be humans on the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede, Titan and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.^[42] Freeman Dyson (1999) favours the Kuiper belt as the future home of humanity, suggesting this could happen within a few centuries.^[43] In Mining the Sky, John S. Lewis suggests that the staggering resources of the solar system could support 10 quadrillion (10^15) people.

K. Eric Drexler, famous inventor of the futuristic concept of Molecular Nanotechnology, has suggested in Engines of Creation that colonizing space will mean breaking the Malthusian limits to growth forever for the human species.

Many authors (eg. Carl Sagan, Arthur C. Clarke,^[44] Isaac Asimov^[45]) have argued that shipping the excess population into space is no solution to human overpopulation, saying that (Clarke, 1999) "the population battle must be fought or won here on Earth." It is not the lack of resources in space that they see as the problem (as books such as Mining the sky demonstrate^[46]); it is the sheer physical impracticality of shipping vast numbers of people into space to "solve" overpopulation on Earth that these authors and others regard as absurd. However, Gerard O'Neill's calculations show that the Earth could offload all new population growth with a launch services industry about the same size as the current airline industry in O'Neill, Gerard K. (1981). 2081: A Hopeful View of the Human Future. Simon and Schuster. ISBN 0-671-44751-3. .

[edit] Overpopulation as a theme in fiction

In 1729, Jonathan Swift wrote the satirical essay A Modest Proposal where he suggests one solution for both the problem of overpopulation and the growing numbers of undernourished people in Ireland: cannibalism, particularly the raising of infants as food.

Science fiction writers have frequently made famous predictions in which they portrayed dystopian futures in which the world has become massively overpopulated. This became a major theme in the 1950s and 1960s. One of the first depictions of future megacities was The Caves of Steel by Isaac Asimov (1954). The 1960s saw increasing anxiety about the prospect of the exponential growth of world population, underscored by the publication of Paul R. Ehrlich's non-fiction The Population Bomb, in 1968. The 1969 Star Trek: The Original Series episode entitled The Mark of Gideon dealt with a race of overpopulated aliens who abducted Captain Kirk to solve their population problem.

In the same year, John Brunner's science-fictional Stand on Zanzibar was published. This is perhaps the definitive overpopulation novel to date, though others such as Harry Harrison's Make Room! Make Room! also became a powerful movie (Soylent Green). Logan's Run is a novel by William F. Nolan and George Clayton Johnson (1967), describing a dystopian future society in which the population is kept young by euthanizing everyone who reaches a certain age, thus neatly avoiding the problem of overpopulation. A 1972 film called Z.P.G. featured an overpopulated, very polluted future Earth, whose world government practices Zero Population Growth, executing persons who violate the 30-year ban on procreation.

J. G. Ballard's story Billennium pictures a future in which every individual has four, then just three, square meters of living space. Frederik Pohl in The Space Merchants described a future in which even public staircases are rented out as living spaces. Robert Silverberg's The World Inside imagines a future with mile high towers holding a million people each. James Blish and Norman L. Knight in A Torrent of Faces imagine a nightmarish future of 1,000 billion living in just 100,000 cities on Earth.

A similar point, from the opposite point of view, is made by Ursula K. LeGuin in the utopian part of her novel Always Coming Home, in which the visiting anthropologist recognises that one of the reasons for the success and stability of the Kesh culture is simply that there are fewer of them (in the post-apocalyptic future) than previously.

From the 1980s on, there has been an evident lessening of such fears in science fiction^{[citation needed]}. Cyberpunk fiction, such as that of William Gibson, often depicts huge, sprawling cities. Yet these are as remarkable for their energy and diversity as for their more dystopian characteristics.

One of the reasons for this may be the rise of environmental fiction with The End of Nature (1990) by Bill McKibben, the environmental trilogy Ishmael (1992), The Story of B (1996), and My Ishmael (1997) by Daniel Quinn. With the host of environmental problems caused by overpopulation, almost by definition, talking about one is talking about the other.

[edit] References

[edit] Further reading

• Virginia Abernethy, professor (emerita) of psychiatry and anthropology, Population Politics, (1993)
• Albert Bartlett, emeritus professor of physics, Arithmetic, Population, and Energy: The Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis, (1978)
• Joel E. Cohen, Chair, Laboratory of Populations at the Rockefeller University, How Many People Can the Earth Support? (1996)
• Barry Commoner, American biologist and college professor Making Peace with the Planet (1990)
• Herman Daly, professor at the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, College Park Ecological Economics and the Ecology of Economics (1999)
• Paul R. Ehrlich, Bing Professor of Population Studies, The Population Bomb, (1968) The Population Explosion, (1990) The Population Bomb, (1995) reprint
• Garrett Hardin, 1941 Stanford University - Ph.D. Microbiology, Living Within Limits, (1995) reprint
• Bjørn Lomborg, Masters in political science at the University of Aarhus in 1991, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World, (2001)
• Andrew Mason, Professor, head of the University of Hawaii's population studies program, Population change and economic development in East Asia: Challenges met, opportunities seized (2001)
• Donella Meadows, lead author Ph.D. in biophysics from Harvard, Jorgen Randers, professor of policy analysis at the Norwegian School of Management, Dennis Meadows, director of the Institute for Policy and Social Science Research Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (Paperback) (2004)
• Thomas Malthus, English demographer and political economist, An Essay on the Principle of Population, (1798)
• Julian Lincoln Simon, professor of Business Administration The Ultimate Resource 2, (1998)"
• Ben J. Wattenberg, senior fellow at the neoconservative American Enterprise Institute, The Birth Dearth (1989) ??? Fewer: How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future, (2005)

[edit] See also

• National Security Study Memorandum 200 (a U.S. NSS document from the 1970s)
• Rientrodolce (an Italian interest group which lobbies against overpopulation)
• World Population Foundation
• The Ultimate Resource, a work by Julian Simon challenging the perceived dangers of overpopulation

[edit] Concepts

• Carrying capacity
• Ecological footprint
• Over-consumption
• Population ageing
• Population biology
• Population control
• Population decline
• Population density
• Population ecology
• Population ethics
• Population growth
• Population pyramid
• Sustainability
• Tragedy of the commons

[edit] Issues

• Immigration reduction
• Urban sprawl
• Water crisis

[edit] External links

• World Population Clock
• Chart: World Population Growth Through History
• AAAS Atlas of Population and Environment
• U.S. Population Reaches 300 Million, Heading for 400 Million -- No Cause for Celebration
• Earth Policy Institute Resources on POPULATION and HEALTH
• VOA News - World Population Growth to be Concentrated in Developing Nations
• Map over population density
• Population Research Institute
• Population-Environment Balance (organization)
• Ecofuture.org Population and Sustainability Website
• A Crusade Against Overpopulation
• Is World Population a Concern? Robert Heilbroner, Thomas Malthus, and the Application of Both
• Overpopulation and Happiness
• newadvent - overpopulation
• Negative Population Growth (organization)
• Overpopulation.com: Overpopulation FAQ
• Planned Parenthood mission and population stance
• Sustainable Population Australia
• Population Action International (organization)
• DieOff.org, human population crash website
• Population Connection (formerly Zero Population Growth; organization)
• Appeal to Marco Pannella on overpopulation
• Humanity has no enemies apart from itself (English and Lithuanian)
• Sierra Club's Population Campaign (organization)
• SUSPS (concerned with the Sierra Club's immigration policy; organization)
• Voluntary Human Extinction Movement
• World population projections by the United Nations "World Population to 2300"
• World Population Balance (organization)
• Article about overpopulation
• Introduction to Social Macrodynamics
• Be In The Know: Six Billion and Counting, Full Effect
• MOBUTOBE by art group monochrom. A satirical art activism initiative for the "accomplishment of total population".
• Population and the Environment: The Global Challenge
• World Scientists' Warning to Humanity