Vela Incident
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The Vela Incident (sometimes known as the South Atlantic Flash) was an as-yet unidentified flash of light detected by a United States Vela satellite on September 22, 1979. It has been speculated that the flash was the result of a nuclear weapons test; however, much information about the event is still classified.
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[edit] Detection
The flash was detected on 22 September 1979, at 00:53 GMT, by a U. S. Vela satellite that was specifically developed to detect nuclear explosions. The satellite reported the characteristic double flash (a very fast and very bright flash, then a longer and less-bright one) of an atmospheric nuclear explosion of two to three kilotons, in the Indian Ocean near the Prince Edward Islands (South African dependencies) at . No known natural phenomenon causes this type of light flash.
There is some doubt as to whether the satellite's observations were accurate. Vela 6911 was one of a pair launched on 23 May 1969, more than ten years prior to the event, and the satellite was already two years past its design lifespan. It was known to have a failed electromagnetic pulse (EMP) sensor, and in addition had developed a fault (in July 1972) in its recording memory, but the fault had cleared itself by March 1978.
Initial assessments by the U.S. National Security Council in October 1979 and January 1980 were that the event was indeed a nuclear test, and that responsibility should be ascribed to South Africa.[1][2] Later, the Carter administration summoned a panel of experts headed by Jack Ruina to consider the reliability of the Vela 6911 data. Reporting in the summer of 1980, the panel concluded that the signal "was probably not from a nuclear explosion. Although we cannot rule out that this signal was of nuclear origin." The panel proposed that the satellite was in error and had perhaps been hit by a small meteorite. The fact that the explosion was picked up by only one of the Vela satellites (out of two) seems to support the panel's assertion. United States Air Force flights in the area soon after also failed to detect any sign of radiation.
Many doubt the panel's findings, arguing that they were politically motivated. A considerable amount of evidence corroborating the nuclear hypothesis has been gathered. The Vela satellites had previously detected 41 atmospheric tests, each of which was subsequently confirmed by other means. There were some other data that seemed to confirm the explosion. Hydrophones operated by the U.S. Navy detected a signal which was consistent with a small nuclear explosion on or slightly under the surface of the water near the Prince Edward Islands. The radio telescope at Arecibo, Puerto Rico, also detected an anomalous traveling ionospheric disturbance at the same time. A test in Western Australia conducted a few months later found increased radiation levels.[3] The Los Alamos scientists who worked on the Vela program remain convinced that their satellite worked properly.
It has also been proposed that an explosion did occur, but was caused by a comet or other natural phenomenon, not a nuclear test.
[edit] Responsibility
The two primary suspects for the sources of an unexplained nuclear blast were Israel and South Africa, both of which had covert nuclear weapons programs at the time. A test by either Israel or South Africa would have been very awkward for the Carter administration. Israel was a close American ally, while the South African relationship was close but unpopular due to apartheid. Carter had worked hard on nonproliferation issues, and a vigorous response would have been required if it had been proven that either nation had conducted the test. This would have disrupted the negotiations underway over the Camp David Accords.
If a nuclear explosion did occur, it is uncertain who triggered it. There are difficulties with both the South African and Israeli hypotheses.
South Africa did have a nuclear weapons program at the time, and the geographic location of the tests points to their involvement. However, since the fall of apartheid, South Africa has disclosed most of the information on its nuclear weapons program, and according to the subsequent IAEA report, South Africa did not have the capability to construct such a device until November 1979, two months after the incident.[citation needed] However, American signals intelligence had detected an unprecedented security lock-down at South Africa's Walvis Bay facility the week before the event, which led to suspicions that the putative test was staged from there.[citation needed]
Israel almost certainly had nuclear weapons in 1979, but it is questioned whether they had the capability to mount a covert test thousands of kilometres away. If it was an Israeli test, it was almost certainly with South African cooperation.
U.S. analysts also considered the possibility that it could have been a covert test by a known nuclear state. They concluded that there would be little motivation for the USSR or China in particular to test a nuclear weapon in such a way, unless they were attempting to make it look like South Africa or Israel were covertly testing weapons. The possibility that India would test a weapon was considered, since it would be normal for Indian ships to be in those waters, but dismissed as both impracticable and probably not within their limited nuclear capabilities.[4]
It is unlikely any of the then declared nuclear powers would have conducted such a test. They had little reason to conduct an atmospheric test, and the small size of the blast might reflect a less advanced weapon – though there are many "advanced" reasons for small tests as well, including tactical nuclear weapons (such as so-called neutron bombs) and testing the primary devices for thermonuclear weapons.
Sometimes also mentioned as another potential partner for South Africa in such a test is Taiwan. India had carried out a nuclear test in 1974 (see Smiling Buddha) and was also considered as a potential partner of South Africa's nuclear program. However, that suspicion was shortlived as India was one of the most vocal critics of apartheid and had no diplomatic or military relationship with South Africa.
[edit] Subsequent developments
Since 1980 some new evidence has emerged; however, most questions remain unanswered.
In February 1994 Commodore Dieter Gerhardt, a convicted Soviet spy and former commander of South Africa's Simon's Town naval base, talked about the incident upon his release from prison. He said:
- "Although I was not directly involved in planning or carrying out the operation, I learned unofficially that the flash was produced by an Israeli-South African test, code-named Operation Phenix. The explosion was clean and was not supposed to be detected. But they were not as smart as they thought, and the weather changed – so the Americans were able to pick it up."[5]
On April 20, 1997, the Israeli daily newspaper Haaretz, quoted South African Deputy Foreign Minister Aziz Pahad as confirming that the flash over the Indian Ocean was indeed from a South African nuclear test. Soon afterwards Pahad reported that he had been misquoted and that he was merely repeating the rumors that had been circulating for years.
Some related U.S. information has recently been declassified in the form of heavily redacted reports and memoranda following applications made under Freedom of Information Act, but nothing that provides conclusive proof over the incident one way or the other. On May 5, 2006, these documents were made available through the National Security Archive.
[edit] See also
[edit] Fiction
- The Vela Incident formed the basis for a novel by Abe Ariel entitled "The Last War". The novel describes the test of an Israeli neutron bomb on an uncharted island.
- The Vela Incident was probably the inspiration for a Season 5 episode of The West Wing, "The Warfare of Genghis Khan".
- The Vela Incident is quite similar to the cover-up explanation of the Second Impact in Neon Genesis Evangelion.
[edit] References
- ^ http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB190/01.pdf
- ^ http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB190/04.pdf
- ^ Frank Barnaby. 1989. The Invisible Bomb, I.B. Tauris & Co. Ltd., ISBN 1-85043-078-0
- ^ See Jeffrey Richelson, Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and North Korea (New York: W. W. Norton, 2006), chapter seven, "The Double Flash".
- ^ David Albright. 1994. South Africa and the Affordable Bomb
- The flash in the Atlantic
- Proliferation: A flash from the past
- Report on the 1979 Vela Incident
- 1979 South Atlantic "Flash" is Consistent with a Nuclear Explosion, According to Newly Declassified Energy Department Documents
- Israeli Nuclear Weapons Testing
- The Vela Incident Nuclear, Test or Meteoroid?, National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 190, May 5, 2006
