New South Wales general election, 2007

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Legislative Assembly election, 2007
Party	Vote %		Seats
Labor	39.5	↓3.2	53	↓2
Liberals	26.3	↑2.1	21	↑3
Nationals	9.8	↑0.2	13	↑1
Independents			5	↓2
Labor win

Elections for the 54th Parliament of New South Wales were held on Saturday, 24 March 2007. The entire Legislative Assembly and half of the Legislative Council was up for election. The Australian Labor Party led by Morris Iemma won a fourth four-year term against the Liberal-National Coalition led by Peter Debnam.

Labor's substantial majority survived the election almost intact. The Liberals succeeded in taking two independent seats in Sydney's north and making five previously safe Labor seats marginal. The Nationals took the seat of Tweed from the ALP.

Contents 1 Campaign 2 Results 3 Electoral System 4 Legislative Assembly 4.1 Pendulum 4.2 Marginal seats 4.3 High-profile seats 4.3.1 Sydney 4.3.2 Rural and regional 4.4 High profile candidates 4.5 Retiring 5 Legislative Council 5.1 Major Parties 5.2 Minor Parties 6 Notes

[edit] Campaign

Main article: New South Wales general election campaign, 2007

Labor, running on the slogan "More to do, but we're heading in the right direction," heavily outspent the Liberals, whose slogan was "Let's fix NSW." Though water and infrastructure emerged as key issues in the campaign, much of the parties' advertising focussed on the negatives: Debnam's business record and Labor's record in office.

The media concluded that the choice facing voters was in finding the lesser of two evils: the three major newspapers sold in New South Wales endorsed Debnam, though not without criticising his ineptitude on the campaign trail.

The result was widely perceived as a foregone conclusion, with opposition leader Peter Debnam conceding as much the week before the poll. Opinion polls consistently put Labor ahead in terms of voting intention and preferred premier.

[edit] Results

Shortly before 10.00pm on election night Peter Debnam conceded the election.

The results for the 2007 NSW general election have not yet been declared, although polls have closed as of 6:00pm AEST, and counting is currently underway.

No offical results for the Legislative Assembly have yet been declared.

The number of seats currently predicted to have won by each party with 74.7% been counted are:

Legislative Assembly

	Party	Votes	%	Swing	Seats Won	In Doubt	Predict	Change
	Australian Labor Party	1,251,922	39.5	-3.2	52	1	53	-2
	Liberal Party of Australia	849,987	26.8	+2.1	20	1	21	+3
	National Party of Australia	312,431	9.8	+0.2	13	0	13	+1
	Australian Greens	278,583	8.8	+0.5	0	0	0	0
	Christian Democrats	79,307	2.5	+0.8	0	0	0	0
	Other		12.6	-0.4	5	1	6	-2
	Total				90	3	93
	Australian Labor Party	WIN			52		53
	Liberal/National Coalition				33		34

No offical results for the Legislative Council have yet been declared.

The number of seats currently predicted to have been won by each party, based on above the line group votes counted on election night are:

Legislative Council

	Party	Votes	%	Swing	2007 Seats Predicted	2003 Seats Held	Total	Change
	Australian Labor Party	1,181,271	39.8	-3.7	9	10	19	+1
	Liberal Party of Australia	1,001,097	33.7	+0.4	5	5	10	+1
	National Party of Australia				3	2	5	+1
	Australian Greens	265,850	9.0	+0.4	2	2	4	+1
	Christian Democrats	130,568	4.4	+1.3	1	1	2	0
	Shooters Party	82,926	2.8	+0.7	1	1	2	+1
	Other				0	0	0	-5
	Total				21	21	42

[edit] Electoral System

See main article: Electoral systems of the Australian states and territories#New South Wales

The New South Wales Legislative Assembly has 93 members elected for four-year terms using instant-runoff voting, a form of preferential voting. The voting system is the same as for the Australian House of Representatives except that New South Wales has optional preferential voting. This means that while voters may number every candidate if they wish, their vote is still formal if they choose not to. They may vote for one candidate only, or for as many candidates as they choose, provided that they number them in correct sequence.

The New South Wales Legislative Council has 42 members who serve eight year terms, one-half of the body being elected every four years. The Council uses the Single Transferable Vote method, a form of preferential voting for use with proportional representation. As for the Assembly, the numbering of preferences is optional.

Soon after the election, the Governor of New South Wales, Marie Bashir, will appoint a member of the Legislative Assembly Premier of New South Wales. By convention, the party leader with the largest bloc of votes in the Assembly, Morris Iemma, will be chosen.

[edit] Legislative Assembly

Further information: Candidates of the New South Wales legislative election, 2007

Government is formed in the Legislative Assembly, the lower house of Parliament. The Legislative Assembly currently consists of:

• 53 members of the Australian Labor Party
• 21 members of the Liberal Party of Australia
• 13 members of the National Party of Australia
• 5 independents

All Assembly seats are up for election in 2007. The seats for this election will follow the boundary redistribution conducted in 2005, which did not change the number of seats notionally held by each party.

[edit] Pendulum

Further information: Mackerras New South Wales election pendulum, 2005

A majority being 47 seats, the Labor Party must lose nine seats (a uniform swing of 8.7%) to lose its majority, and the Liberal-National coalition must gain 16 seats to gain a majority. If the Liberal-National coalition gains at least one seat from an Independent, a uniform swing of 11.6% will be sufficient. Otherwise, the necessary uniform swing will be 12.3. Swings of this size are rare in New South Wales politics.

The swings required for the opposing party to take each of the Assembly's 93 seats are often illustrated by means of a Mackerras Pendulum.

[edit] Marginal seats

Marginal seats, i.e. those held with two-candidate preferred margins of 6% or less, are the most likely to change hands at an election. The table below shows the Assembly seats considered most marginal by psephologists Malcolm Mackerras and Antony Green.

Seat	MP	Party	Margin	Seat	MP	Party	Margin
				Orange	Russell Turner	National	5.9%
				Clarence	Steve Cansdell	National	5.3%
				Bega	Andrew Constance	Liberal	4.7%
Pittwater	Alex McTaggart[1]	Independent	5.4%	Goulburn	Peta Seaton[2]	Liberal	4.5%
Wollondilly	New seat	Labor	4.6%	Hornsby	Judy Hopwood	Liberal	4.2%
Monaro	Steve Whan	Labor	4.4%	Baulkham Hills	Wayne Merton	Liberal	4.0%
Tweed	Neville Newell	Labor	4.0%	Lane Cove	Anthony Roberts	Liberal	2.8%
Tamworth	Peter Draper[3]	Independent	1.9%	South Coast	Shelley Hancock	Liberal	1.6%
Manly	David Barr[4]	Independent	1.2%	Murray-Darling	Peter Black[5]	Labor	-1.4%
Dubbo	Dawn Fardell[6]	Independent	0.3%	Terrigal[7]	Chris Hartcher	Liberal	0.6%

[edit] High-profile seats

[edit] Sydney

Balmain, in Sydney's inner-western suburbs, was with Marrickville one of two seats considered winnable for the Greens. The Greens failed to improve on their 2003 vote, recording a swing of just 0.2%. Labor's Verity Firth won comfortably.

The Liberals held on to Hawkesbury despite an independent challenge from Steven Pringle, the disendorsed Liberal incumbent. Pringle won 28.0% of the primary vote, at the expense of Labor and other independent candidates. Liberal candidate Ray Williams saw his primary vote dip by just 1.0%.

In Macquarie Fields, high-profile Liberal candidate Nola Fraser achieved a 12% swing in two-party-preferred terms compared to the 2003 poll. The incumbent, Labor's Steven Chaytor, had bowed out of the contest after being convicted for assaulting his girlfriend. Local issues such as hospital scandals and the 2005 Macquarie Fields riots may have also contributed to the high Liberal vote. Labor candidate Andrew McDonald won Macquarie Fields comfortably.

The Liberals won Manly from the independents for the first time since the 1980s. Sitting MP David Barr lost to Mike Baird, who increased the Liberals' primary vote by 4.4%.

Marrickville, in Sydney's inner west, was considered the Greens' best hope of capturing a lower house seat, but Labor's Carmel Tebbutt managed to keep her party's primary vote steady, down just 0.4%. Tebbutt, who won the seat in a 2005 by-election after quitting the Legislative Council, is a senior member of the party's left wing and has a strong personal following in the area.

The Liberals lost Pittwater to independent Alex McTaggart at a by-election called after the resignation of John Brogden. The Liberals' Rob Stokes won the seat back on primaries, taking 50.5% of the vote.

[edit] Rural and regional

Independent Dubbo MP Dawn Fardell is slightly ahead as counting continues. The Nationals lost ground slightly in the seat, which appears set to remain the state's most marginal.

Star Liberal candidate Pru Goward faced a tough fight in Goulburn with independent candidate Paul Stephenson capturing a quarter of the vote. Goward was helped by the Nationals' decision not to run in the seat but both Labor and the Coalition lost ground. Allegations surfaced during the campaign that Labor was assisting Stephenson's campaign. The Liberals are ahead as counting continues in the seat.

Independent Greg Piper won the safe seat of Lake Macquarie from Labor's Jeff Hunter. Labor and the Liberals lost 10.4% and 15.7% of their primary vote respectively.

Sitting Labor MP Bryce Gaudry chose to stand as an independent after being disendorsed by his party in the seat of Newcastle. Gaudry and another independent, John Tate, both outpolled the Greens and the Liberals. Labor's Jodi McKay suffered a 17.1% swing against her but is expected to win the seat on preferences.

Port Stephens Labor MP John Bartlett retired at this election. Although the Liberals' Craig Baumann added 8.7% to his party's primary vote in the seat to outpoll Labor, ALP candidate Jim Arneman is expected to win on preferences.

The Labor member for Swansea, Milton Orkopoulos, resigned from parliament after being charged with a number of child-sex and drug offenses. An expected backlash against the ALP materialised in the form of an 11.3% swing, with independent candidate Laurie Coghlan the main beneficiary. Nonetheless, Labor candidate Robert Coombs was able to hold the seat with a comfortable majority.

Tweed, Labor's most marginal seat, fell to the Nationals' Geoff Provest. Labor incumbent Neville Newell had previously served two terms (six years) in the federal seat of Richmond before his two terms (eight years) in the State Parliament. A swing of 7.8% meant that the seat changed from being a marginal seat for Labor to a National Party marginal.

The Liberals lost primary votes in the seat of Wyong, bucking the statewide swing to the party. The Liberals had disendorsed candidate Brenton Pavier after details emerged of a sex joke he had sent to friends via SMS. The Liberals' new candidate, Ben Morton, managed a 5.4% swing in two-party-preferred terms, not enough to take victory from Labor candidate David Harris. Incumbent Labor MP Paul Crittenden retired at the election.

[edit] High profile candidates

• Dawn Fraser, a champion swimmer, headed her own independent ticket for the Legislative Council
• Pru Goward, a former federal Sex Discrimination Commissioner, won Goulburn for the Liberals
• Mamdouh Habib, a former Guantanamo Bay detention camp inmate, ran as an independent in Auburn
• Phil Koperberg, the state's Rural Fire Service chief, won Blue Mountains for Labor
• Jodi McKay, a former NBN Television newsreader, won Newcastle for Labor
• June Dally Watkins, head of the eponymous deportment school, was a Legislative Council candidate for the Christian Democrats

[edit] Retiring

A number of MPs did not seek re-election in 2007. Liberal MPs Andrew Tink (Epping) and Peta Seaton, (Southern Highlands) retired. Andrew Humpherson (Davidson) lost preselection and did not contest his seat. Nationals MP Ian Slack-Smith (Barwon) also retired.

The Labor MPs retiring at the 2007 election were John Bartlett (Port Stephens), Paul Crittenden (Wyong), John Mills (Wallsend), Sandra Nori (Port Jackson), John Price (Maitland) and Kim Yeadon (Granville). Steven Chaytor (Macquarie Fields) and Milton Orkopoulos (Swansea), each arrested for violent crimes in late 2006, pulled out of the election. Carl Scully (Smithfield), dumped from the ministry for misleading parliament, chose not to recontest his seat. Attorney-General Bob Debus (Blue Mountains) did not seek re-election, in anticipation of a move to federal politics.

[edit] Legislative Council

Further information: Candidates of the New South Wales legislative election, 2007

Legislative Council seats, 2007
Party	Elected 2003	Elected 2007	Current total
Labor	10	9	19
Liberals	5	5	10
Nationals	2	3	5
Greens	2	2	4
Christian Democrats	1	1	2
Shooters Party	1	1	2

The New South Wales Legislative Council is not elected in one general election. Rather, half the house is elected at each general election. Those Members of the Legislative Council elected at the 1999 election, and those who have been elected to fill vacancies from members elected in 1999, will vacate their seats at the 2007 election.

[edit] Major Parties

A quota for the Legislative Council is roughly 4.5% of the vote. According to recent opinion polls, the absolute minimum number of MLCs elected by each major party (the Liberals and Nationals running a single ticket in Legislative Council elections) would be 7 each, adding up to 31.5% in quotas. While it is difficult to predict the number of seats won by each party, recent polls indicate the Liberal-National coalition would gain seats. The lowest result in 2005 opinion polls for the Coalition, conducted at the same time as the resignation of Liberal leader John Brogden and the election of his successor, gave the Coalition 38% of the vote, which would give them a likely 9 MLCs, three more than their current complement.

With a very low number of major party MLCs elected in 1999, it does not necessarily follow that the Labor Party must lose seats if the Coalition gains seats. At its lowest point in polls, the Labor Party only stands to lose one seat, and could quite easily retain its 8 seats while suffering a swing against it, compared to the 2003 result.

[edit] Minor Parties

The 1999 election saw a number of small parties win a single seat in the Legislative Council, with seven parties winning one seat each. With the exception of the Greens and the Christian Democrats, none of those parties were able to repeat that success in 2003, following the introduction of a new electoral system which made it more difficult for small parties to win seats.

The Outdoor Recreation Party, Unity Party, and Reform the Legal System have failed to attract any significant electoral support, making it unlikely for them to hold their seats, whilst both One Nation, and its breakaway faction One Nation NSW (formerly led by NSW MLC David Oldfield) have lost most of their party organisation and electoral support in recent years. The same can be said for the Democrats, and there's therefore a strong possibility that all of these groups will lose their existing representation. Nevertheless, the low election quota for NSW LC elections, relative to that of other states, means that some of these groups could retain their seats, if they secure good electoral preference arrangements with other parties.

The Greens, who have generally polled 7-8% in opinion polls, will almost certainly retain their seat, currently held by Lee Rhiannon, and are likely to gain a second seat. As the only minor party to poll more than a single quota, there is potential for the Greens to win three seats, which could be achieved with as little as 11.5% of the vote.

The Christian Democratic Party's leader, Fred Nile, is up for re-election in 2007, and will likely win re-election. Rev. Nile resigned from the Legislative Council in 2004 to contest a seat in the Australian Senate, and was re-appointed to his seat following his Senate defeat. Winning 3% in 2003, and 2.6% in the 2004 federal election, the CDP is likely to retain their seat in 2007. The CDP vote is also likely to be bolstered and more concentrated by the decision of the Family First Party not to run candidates in the election [1].

[edit] Notes

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