Australian general election, 2007

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This article or section contains information about a forthcoming or ongoing election. Content may change dramatically as the election approaches and unfolds.

Election campaign
< 2001 2004 2007
	Government	Opposition
Party	Coalition	Labor
Leader	Howard	Rudd
Leader since	1995	2006
2004 2PP result	52.74%	47.26%
Seats held	87	60
Seats needed	0	16
Marginals held[1]	23	23

The next general election for the Parliament of Australia is expected to take place in late 2007, although it can be held as late as 19 January 2008.

The opposition Australian Labor Party, currently led by Kevin Rudd,^[2] will be the main challenger to the incumbent Coalition government, currently led by the Prime Minister and Leader of the Liberal Party, John Howard, and his Coalition partner the Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the National Party, Mark Vaile.

Contents 1 Election timetable 2 Issues 3 Parties 4 House of Representatives 4.1 Marginal seats 4.2 Redistribution 4.3 Retiring members 4.3.1 Possibly retiring members 4.4 Preselection challenges 5 Senate 6 Polling 7 References 8 See also 9 External link

[edit] Election timetable

As the government holds a majority in both houses, it is likely that the 2007 election will be a regular election, and not a double dissolution election. The election will likely be held between October 2007 and 19 January 2008.

The last date on which the next election can be held is calculated in the following way:

• Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House."

• Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof."

• Section 156 (1) of the Electoral Act says: "the date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ."

• Section 157 of the Electoral Act says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination."

This parliament first met on 16 November 2004. Therefore it expires on 16 November 2007. The writs must therefore be issued by 26 November 2007 (ten days after the expiry). The last date on which nominations can close is therefore 23 December 2007 (27 days after the writs). The last Saturday on which polling can take place therefore is 19 January 2008 (30 day period following the nomination would expire on the 22nd.). However, no Australian Prime Minister has yet called an election to take place in January.

Gerard Henderson wrote in December 2006: "The 2007 APEC leaders' forum will be held in Sydney on September 8 and 9. If John Howard calls an election immediately after the forum, the poll could be held as early as October 13 or October 20. Other Saturdays are realistically available up to December 15 - but the earlier dates are more likely than the latter one." ^[3]

[edit] Issues

Issues predicted by the Australian media to play the highest importance in the election campaign include economic management, climate change^[4], the government's advocacy of nuclear energy^[5], water policy, the WorkChoices industrial relations reforms, interest rates^[6], and the Iraq War^[7] including changes that may be made to policy in light of the Democratic-controlled congress after the recent United States elections.

[edit] Parties

The following political parties are registered with the AEC and will stand candidates at the 2007 election.

• Australian Labor Party: (Social democracy)
• Australian Greens: (Green politics)
• Australian Democrats: (Social liberalism)
• Family First Party: (Christian-influenced conservatism)

Coalition parties:

• Liberal Party of Australia: (Liberal conservatism)
• National Party of Australia (Rural-based Conservatism)
• Country Liberal Party: (Liberal conservatism)

For more details see:-

• List of political parties in Australia

[edit] House of Representatives

At the 2004 election, the Coalition won 52.8 percent of the two-party preferred vote gaining 87 of the 150 seats available; (Liberal 74, National 12, Country Liberal 1), to Labor's 60 seats. Three independents were elected. To gain outright control of the House of Representatives, the ALP will thus require a net gain of 16 seats.

Labor thus requires a uniform national two-party swing of 4.8% to win the election. Swings are never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the states usually tend to cancel each other out. While the popular view is that the election will be won or lost in Queensland, it is notable that there are only two Queensland seats on the list of key marginals, compared to six New South Wales seats and three South Australian seats.

Prime Minister John Howard's seat of Bennelong, which has been held continuously by the Liberals since its creation in 1949, is now a key marginal. This area of Sydney has undergone substantial demographic change, and a redistribution has recently reduced Howard's margin further. Indeed, much of Howard's territory is currently represented by Labor at the state level. Labor would also need to win the seat of Wentworth, which has existed since 1901 and never elected a Labor member.

Labor's most vulnerable seats are Hindmarsh (0.1%), Swan (0.1%), Macquarie (0.5%), Cowan (0.8%) and Bendigo (1.0%). Cowan is considered particularly vulnerable because the popular sitting member, Graham Edwards, is retiring.

For a table showing all House of Representatives seats in order of two-party majority, see Mackerras federal election pendulum, 2006.

[edit] Marginal seats

Both Labor and the Coalition hold 23 marginal seats: seats with two-party preferred margins of 6% or less. Since the 2006 redistribution, Labor-held Parramatta is notionally a Liberal marginal and Liberal-held Macquarie is notionally a Labor marginal.

In the table below, based on the Mackerras electoral pendulum, marginal seats are shown in the order they would fall, assuming a uniform swing. A uniform swing to Labor would deliver the party seats on the left-hand side. A uniform swing to the Coalition would deliver seats to the Liberals and Nationals on the right-hand side.

Notional marginal seats as of 2006 redistribution
Seat	MP	Party	Margin	Seat	MP	Party	Margin
La Trobe, Vic	Jason Wood	Liberal	5.8%	Corio, Vic	Gavan O'Connor	Labor	5.6%
Blair, Qld	Cameron Thompson	Liberal	5.7%	Lilley, Qld	Wayne Swan	Labor	5.4%
Page, NSW	Ian Causley	National	5.5%	Brand, WA	Kim Beazley	Labor	4.7%
Boothby, SA	Andrew Southcott	Liberal	5.4%	Jagajaga, Vic	Jenny Macklin	Labor	4.4%
Corangamite, Vic	Stewart McArthur	Liberal	5.3%	Brisbane, Qld	Arch Bevis	Labor	4.0%
McMillan, Vic	Russell Broadbent	Liberal	5.0%	Capricornia, Qld	Kirsten Livermore	Labor	3.8%
Deakin, Vic	Philip Barresi	Liberal	5.0%	Melbourne Ports, Vic	Michael Danby	Labor	3.7%
Dobell, NSW	Ken Ticehurst	Liberal	4.8%	Lyons, Tas	Dick Adams	Labor	3.7%
Bennelong, NSW	John Howard	Liberal	4.0%	Bruce, Vic	Alan Griffin	Labor	3.5%
Eden-Monaro, NSW	Gary Nairn	Liberal	3.3%	Banks, NSW	Daryl Melham	Labor	3.3%
Lindsay, NSW	Jackie Kelly	Liberal	2.9%	Rankin, Qld	Craig Emerson	Labor	3.0%
Moreton, Qld	Gary Hardgrave	Liberal	2.8%	Lowe, NSW	John Murphy	Labor	3.1%
Solomon, NT	Dave Tollner	CLP	2.8%	Chisholm, Vic	Anna Burke	Labor	2.7%
Bass, Tas	Michael Ferguson	Liberal	2.6%	Ballarat, Vic	Catherine King	Labor	2.2%
Wentworth, NSW	Malcolm Turnbull	Liberal	2.6%	Holt, Vic	Anthony Byrne	Labor	1.5%
Stirling, WA	Michael Keenan	Liberal	2.0%	Isaacs, Vic	Ann Corcoran	Labor	1.5%
Hasluck, WA	Stuart Henry	Liberal	1.8%	Richmond, NSW	Justine Elliot	Labor	1.5%
Parramatta, NSW[8]	Julie Owens	Labor	-1.1%	Adelaide, SA	Kate Ellis	Labor	1.3%
Braddon, Tas	Mark Baker	Liberal	1.1%	Bendigo, Vic	Steve Gibbons	Labor	1.0%
Makin, SA	Trish Draper	Liberal	0.9%	Cowan, WA	Graham Edwards	Labor	0.8%
Wakefield, SA	David Fawcett	Liberal	0.7%	Macquarie, NSW[9]	Kerry Bartlett	Liberal	-0.5%
Bonner, Qld	Ross Vasta	Liberal	0.6%	Swan, WA	Kim Wilkie	Labor	0.1%
Kingston, SA	Kym Richardson	Liberal	0.1%	Hindmarsh, SA	Steve Georganas	Labor	0.1%
MPs shown in italics are not contesting the 2007 election. See Mackerras federal election pendulum, 2006 for a full list of seats.

[edit] Redistribution

Due to population shifts, Queensland gained a seat at the expense of New South Wales in a redistribution completed in September 2006 by the Australian Electoral Commission. In New South Wales, the Division of Gwydir in western NSW was abolished. A number of other seats were also substantially changed, including Parkes, Farrer, Calare, Macquarie, Greenway and Hughes. Macquarie was changed from a fairly safe Liberal seat to a marginal Labor seat, by the inclusion of Lithgow and Bathurst, while Parramatta was changed from marginal Labor to marginal Liberal.

In Queensland a new Division of Flynn, named for the founder of the Royal Flying Doctor Service, Rev John Flynn, was created, based on Gladstone and running inland as far as Winton. This seat has a notional National Party majority of about 7 percent. [1]

The net effect of the proposed redistribution was thus to transfer a National Party seat from NSW (Gwydir) to Queensland (Flynn).

[edit] Retiring members

The following members of the House of Representatives will not be contesting the 2007 election:

• John Anderson (National, Gwydir, NSW): The redistribution commissioners have recommended the abolition of Gwydir. He was quoted in the Australian on 10 July that he was retiring.
• Peter Andren (Independent, Calare, NSW): Contesting the Senate election.
• Kim Beazley (ALP, Brand, WA): announced retirement December 2006
• Ian Causley (National, Page, NSW): will be 67 in October 2007. Announced his retirement October 2006.
• Ann Corcoran (ALP, Isaacs, VIC): lost preselection
• Trish Draper (Liberal, Makin, SA): decision to retire reported July 2006
• Graham Edwards (ALP, Cowan, WA): announced his retirement January 2006
• Kay Elson (Liberal, Forde, QLD): retirement reported June 2006
• Warren Entsch (Liberal, Leichhardt, QLD): has announced his retirement
• David Jull (Liberal, Fadden, QLD): announced retirement January 2007
• Carmen Lawrence (ALP, Fremantle, WA): announced retirement March 2007
• Geoff Prosser (Liberal, Forrest, WA): retirement reported June 2006
• Harry Quick (ALP, Franklin, TAS): announced retirement August 2005
• Rod Sawford (ALP, Port Adelaide, SA): retirement reported August 2006
• Robert Sercombe (ALP , Maribyrnong, VIC): lost preselection 2006
• Barry Wakelin (Liberal, Grey, SA): retirement reported June 2006

[edit] Possibly retiring members

Other members of the House of Representatives who may retire at the 2007 election include:

• Gavan O'Connor (ALP, Corio, Victoria) lost ALP preselection in 2006, but may recontest as an independent

[edit] Preselection challenges

A number of members faced pre-selection challenges during 2006. These were:

Australian Labor Party

• Ann Corcoran (Isaacs, VIC): lost preselection to Mark Dreyfus, QC
• Michael Danby (Melbourne Ports, VIC): easily defeated a challenge from Henk van Leeuwen
• Alan Griffin (Bruce, VIC): very narrowly defeated a challenge from Matt Carrick
• Harry Jenkins (Scullin, VIC): very narrowly defeated a challenge from Nathan Murphy
• Gavan O'Connor (Corio, VIC): lost preselection to ACTU Assistant Secretary Richard Marles
• Simon Crean (Hotham, VIC): defeated a challenge from Martin Pakula, who withdrew after the local ballot
• Robert Sercombe (Maribyrnong, VIC): lost preselection to AWU Secretary Bill Shorten

Liberal Party

• Petro Georgiou (Kooyong VIC): defeated a challenge from investment banker Joshua Frydenberg
• Stewart McArthur (Corangamite VIC): defeated a challenge from Rod Nockles
• Judi Moylan (Pearce WA): defeated a challenge from Jamie Falls.
• Dennis Jensen (Tangney WA): defeated a challenge from Matt Brown, on appeal.

Following the New South Wales and Queensland redistributions, there will be a further round of preselections in both major parties.

[edit] Senate

Senate election, 2007
Party	Seats held	Term ending
Liberal	34	17
National	4	2
Country Liberal	1	1
Labor	28	13
Greens	4	2
Democrats	4	4
Family First	1	0

The governing Coalition parties—the Liberal Party of Australia, the National Party of Australia and the Country Liberal Party—together account for 39 of the 76-member Australian Senate, a majority. Family First's sole senator, Steve Fielding, has at times assisted the Coalition to pass legislation when other conservative senators have threatened to obstruct bills. The terms of 20 Coalition senators come to an end in 2008. Fielding's term runs until 2011.

The opposition Australian Labor Party has 28 senators. The terms of 13 of these Senators come to an end in 2008. Two of the four Australian Greens senators are up for re-election. All four Australian Democrats senators are reaching the end of their terms: the party faces the prospect of its parliamentary delegation being reduced to zero at the next election.

The following Senators will not be recontesting the 2007 election:

• Paul Calvert (Liberal, TAS): announced in April 2006 that he is "most unlikely" to recontest preselection but will serve out his term
• Rod Kemp (Liberal, VIC): announced in May 2006 that he would retire in 2007.
• Sandy Macdonald (National, NSW): retirement reported January 2007
• Kay Patterson (Liberal, VIC): has announced she will retire at the 2007 election
• Robert Ray (ALP, VIC) did not renominate
• Andrew Murray (Democrat, WA): announced retirement July 2006.
• Natasha Stott Despoja (Democrat, SA): announced retirement October 2006.

The following Senators are facing re-election in 2007 and may retire:

• George Campbell (ALP, NSW): will be 64 in February 2007 and is facing a preselection challenge

[edit] Polling

ACNielsen, Newspoll, and Morgan are the three established opinion pollsters for federal elections in Australia. ACNielsen polling, associated with the Fairfax newspapers is conducted monthly. Newspoll polling, associated with the Murdoch-owned The Australian is conducted fortnightly. Morgan polling oscillates between weekly and fortnightly readings.

ACNielsen and Newspoll polling is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Roy Morgan polling is conducted face-to-face Australia-wide. Sampling sizes consist of 1000-2000 electors with a 2-3 percent margin for error.

ACNielsen polling in March 2007 showed 53% of respondents preferred Rudd as Prime Minister compared to Howard on 39%, and Labor on 61% of the two party preferred vote to the Coalition's 39%. Rudd's personal approval rating of 67% makes him the most popular opposition leader in 35 years. ^[10]

Newspolls since Kevin Rudd took over as Leader of the Opposition have shown a five and a half year low (just before the 2001 election) approval rating for John Howard of 41%.^[11]

The government has not led the opposition in any opinion poll since August 2006.

Newspoll (The Australian)	Preferred Prime Minister
		Rudd		Howard
16-18 Mar 2007	49%		36%
2-4 Mar 2007	45%		38%
16-18 Feb 2007	47%		37%
2-4 Feb 2007	39%		40%
19-21 Jan 2007	39%		41%
8-10 Dec 2006	36%		39%
24-26 Nov 2006	*25%		55%
10-12 Nov 2006	*25%		54%
27-29 Oct 2006	*26%		54%
13-15 Oct 2006	*26%		54%
22-24 Sep 2006	*26%		52%
8-10 Sep 2006	*25%		54%
25-27 Aug 2006	*26%		54%
11-13 Aug 2006	*27%		54%
4-6 Aug 2006	*25%		52%
28-30 Jul 2006	*26%		53%
14-16 Jul 2006	*27%		53%
Source: Newspoll/The Australian (*Beazley)

Newspoll (The Australian)	Two-Party Preferred
		ALP		LIB
2004 election result	47.2%		52.8%
16-18 Mar 2007	61%		39%
2-4 Mar 2007	57%		43%
16-18 Feb 2007	54%		46%
2-4 Feb 2007	56%		44%
19-21 Jan 2007	55%		45%
8-10 Dec 2006	55%		45%
24-26 Nov 2006	*51%		49%
10-12 Nov 2006	*50%		50%
27-29 Oct 2006	*52%		48%
13-15 Oct 2006	*52%		48%
22-24 Sep 2006	*53%		47%
8-10 Sep 2006	*53%		47%
25-27 Aug 2006	*51%		49%
11-13 Aug 2006	*49%		51%
4-6 Aug 2006	*51%		49%
28-30 Jul 2006	*50%		50%
14-16 Jul 2006	*52%		48%
Source: Newspoll/The Australian (*Beazley)

Roy Morgan Research	Two-Party Preferred
		ALP		LIB
2004 election result	47.2%		52.8%
17-18 Mar 2007	58.5%		41.5%
10-11 Mar 2007	61%		39%
3-4 Mar 2007	61.5%		38.5%
17-18 Feb 2007	57%		43%
3-4 Feb 2007	57%		43%
27-28 Jan 2007	54.5%		45.5%
13-14 Jan 2007	57.5%		42.5%
16-17 Dec 2006	58.5%		41.5%
9-10 Dec 2006	60%		40%
25 Nov-3 Dec 2006	*52.5%		47.5%
11-19 Nov 2006	*53.5%		46.5%
28 Oct-5 Nov 2006	*52%		48%
14-22 Oct 2006	*53%		47%
Source: Roy Morgan Research (*Beazley)

[edit] References

[edit] See also

• Candidates of the Australian legislative election, 2007

[edit] External link

• Australian Parliamentary Library research note

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