New Zealand general election, 2008
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 |
This article or section contains information about a forthcoming or ongoing election. Content may change dramatically as the election approaches and unfolds. |
| 2008 general election major party leaders | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | National | ||
 |
 |
||
| Helen Clark Prime Minister |
John Key Leader of the Opposition |
||
| Parliament | 27 years | Parliament | 6 years |
| Leader since | 1993 | Leader since | 2006 |
| Electorate | Mount Albert | Electorate | Helensville |
The next New Zealand general election is expected to take place in late 2008, and must be held no later than 15 November 2008. However, the election may take place any time before that if the House of Representatives is dissolved before then. A snap election is unlikely, since it is a strong convention in New Zealand that Parliament run for a full term unless the Prime Minister cannot govern. The election will determine the 49th New Zealand Parliament.
The opposition National Party will be the main challenger to the incumbent Labour-led minority government, currently led by the Prime Minister Helen Clark. With the resignation of Don Brash as leader of the National Party as of 27 November 2006, John Key now becomes the Leader of the National Party.
Contents |
[edit] Election date
Under section 19 of the Constitution Act 1986, "Parliament shall meet not later than 6 weeks after the day fixed for the return of the writs for that election." The writ for an election will have to be issued before the dissolution of the current Parliament. Under section 17 of the Constitution Act, the term of Parliament is "3 years from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." Since the writs for the 2005 election were returned on 7 October 2005[1], the current Parliament will expire on 7 October 2008, and the final date for the general election will be 15 November 2008.
[edit] The 48th Parliament
Following the 2005 general election Labour leader and Prime Minister Helen Clark announced a new coalition agreement that saw the return of her minority government coalition with the Progressives, with confidence-and-supply support from New Zealand First and from United Future. These arrangements gave the Labour-led government a majority of one seat, 61 votes on confidence-and-supply in the 121-seat Parliament. Additionally, the Green Party agreed to abstain on matters of confidence and supply, in return for minor policy concessions.
Traditionally in New Zealand it is rare for an incumbent governing party to win a fourth term. Both Labour and National have only done so only once, in 1946 and 1969 respectively. However, under the MMP environment this may change, as the formation of government becomes more dependent on the performance of potential coalition parties rather than the two major parties.
National, ACT and the Māori Party are all in opposition, although only the National Party formally constitute the formal Opposition. However, the Maori Party does co-operate and vote with the government on some issues.
On current polling it is likely the Māori Party may receive a great enough share of the party votes to reach proportionality, meaning the total number of seats in Parliament will be reduced to 120. In order for either of the two major parties to win the election, they would need to gain the confidence of 61 MPs.
[edit] Retiring members
The following sitting members have indicated or may retire at the dissolution of the 48th Parliament[2].
- Dover Samuels (Labour, list)[3]
- Paul Swain (Labour, Rimutaka)
- Dianne Yates (Labour, list)
- Marian Hobbs (Labour, Wellington Central)
- Ann Hartley (Labour, list)
Not included on this list is Taito Phillip Field, now an independent member of Parliament for Mangere, was expelled from the Labour Party on the 14 February 2007.
[edit] Boundary changes
The boundaries of New Zealand's parliamentary electorates are due to be altered following the 2006 Census, and the large growth in population between censuses could lead to large boundary changes, particularly in Auckland, the area around Christchurch and the central North Island. This process could lead to more retirements than those listed above. In March 2007, the Electoral Commission announced that the boundary changes would be announced in May 2007[4], with the boundaries being finalised by September 2007.
[edit] Background
The election will occur in the aftermath of the 2005 New Zealand election funding controversy. This controversy and other issues have undermined Labour's support base, and many polls show National leading Labour. However, National has been dogged by leadership issues with the resignation of leader Don Brash on the 23 November 2006, who was replaced on the 27 November 2006 by John Key.
[edit] Polling
[edit] Party vote
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Greens | ACT | United Future | Progressive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 election result | 17 September 2005 | 41.1% | 39.1% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Herald DigiPoll[5] | 30 August 2006 | 38.7% | 46.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Herald DigiPoll[6] | 22-24 September 2006 | 38% | 45.7% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Roy Morgan Research[7] | 21 October 2006 | 40% | 40% | 5% | 1.5% | 8.5% | 2% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| TV3 TNS Poll[8] | 4 November 2006 | 42% | 40% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | - |
| Herald DigiPoll[9] | 14 November-2 December 2006 | 41.7% | 42.8% | 3.4% | 2% | 6.1% | 1% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| TV3 TNS Poll[10] | 5 February 2007 | 44% | 41% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | - |
| One News Colmar Brunton Poll[11] | 19 February 2007 | 39% | 46% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 1% | 1% | - |
| One News Colmar Brunton Poll[12] | 25 March 2007 | 37% | 46% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 2% | - |
[edit] Preferred Prime Minister
| Poll | Date | Helen Clark | Don Brash | John Key | Winston Peters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TV3 TNS Poll[13] | 3 April 2006 | 38% | 15% | - | 6% |
| Herald DigiPoll[14] | 30 August 2006 | 52.4% | 22.4% | 8.5% | 5% |
| Herald DigiPoll[15] | 22-24 September 2006 | 50.8% | 25.9% | 9.2% | 4.8% |
| TV3 TNS Poll[16] | 4 November 2006 | 35% | 15% | - | - |
| Herald DigiPoll[17] | 14 November-2 December 2006 | 54.2% | 3.9% | 28.5% | - |
| TV3 TNS Poll[18] | 5 February 2007 | 35% | 1% | 24% | 5% |
| One News Colmar Brunton Poll[19] | 19 February 2007 | 32% | - | 27% | 3% |
| One News Colmar Brunton Poll[20] | 25 March 2007 | 32% | - | 29% | 4% |
[edit] References
- ^ New Zealand Electoral Commission: Post-election deadlines - Election '05 Source
- ^ New Zealand Herald, 31 October 2006, by Audrey Young
- ^ The New Zealand Herald: Dover Samuels tipped as next minister to go - 8 February 2007 Source
- ^ Electoral Commission, 23 March 2007 Source
- ^ The New Zealand Herald, 31 August 2006 Source
- ^ The New Zealand Herald, 26 September 2006 Source
- ^ Roy Morgan Research, 21 October 2006 Source
- ^ TV3, 4 November 2006, Report
- ^ The New Zealand Herald, 5 December 2006 Stuff report
- ^ TV3, 5 February 2007, Source
- ^ ONE News, 19 February 2007, Source
- ^ ONE News, 25 March 2007, Source
- ^ The New Zealand Herald, 3 April 2006 Source
- ^ The New Zealand Herald, 31 August 2006 Source
- ^ The New Zealand Herald, 26 September 2006 Source
- ^ TV3, 4 November 2006, Report
- ^ The New Zealand Herald, 5 December 2006 Source
- ^ TV3, 5 February 2007, Source
- ^ ONE News, 19 February 2007, Source
- ^ ONE News, 25 March 2007, Source
|
|
 |
|
|
