Victory disease
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Victory disease afflicts military commanders and armies who after victories, become weak and susceptible to defeat.
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[edit] Signs
- arrogance,
- overconfidence,
- complacency,
- use of previously-victorious patterns of fighting, and not developing new tactics to anticipate enemy advances,
- stereotypes of enemies, underestimating enemies,
- ignorance of contrary intelligence or refusal to recognize it.
While the winning side grows complacent, arrogant, feeling invincible, the enemy adapts. Military disaster ensues.
While "victory disease" does not automatically foretell failure, it is a strong indicator. The term applies outside the military world.
[edit] Origin
The origin of the term is associated with the Japanese advance in the Pacific Theater of World War II, where, after attacking Pearl Harbor in 1941, they won a series of nearly uninterrupted victories against the Allies in Southeast Asia and the Pacific.
Although they had planned to establish a perimeter and go on the defensive, victories encouraged them to continue expanding to where it strained logistics and navy. This led to 1942's Battle of Midway, a catastrophic defeat to the Japanese navy — all four of their aircraft carriers involved were sunk. The decision of Japan to start a war against the United States is viewed as victory disease.
[edit] Examples
- The Battle of Salamis in 480 BC in the Greco-Persian Wars, in which the hubris of Xerxes I led to the defeat of the Persian Empire to the Greeks.
- The decision of Napoleon to invade Russia in 1812. A force of about 500,000 French soldiers invaded, and about 20,000 returned.
- United States victories in the Mexican–American War and the Indian Wars made Union forces over-confident going into the American Civil War, losing their first battle — they expected quick victory. The Confederates similarly stereotyped the Union, at times leading to military disaster.
- Confederate decisions made at and before their catastrophic loss at the Battle of Gettysburg, after their outnumbered-five-to-two victory at the Battle of Chancellorsville during the Civil War.
- The 1876 Battle of the Little Bighorn, in which the Sioux nearly annihilated the entire army of Lt. Col. George Armstrong Custer. Expecting a repeat of the Battle of Washita River, Custer ignored contrary intelligence or did not seek it out.
- The catastrophic decision of Hitler to invade the Soviet Union in 1941, underestimating Soviet Union military resilience, counting on success of old tactics; and Germany's subsequent declaration of war on the United States.
- Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. This followed wins in the Sino-Japanese War (1937-1945) and the 1904-1905 Russo-Japanese War.
[edit] Quotes
- "The enemy we're fighting is a bit different from the one we war-gamed against." — Lieutenant general William S. Wallace, on the 2003 invasion of Iraq
