Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2006
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The Pennsylvania gubernatorial election of 2006 was held on November 7, 2006, and included the races for the Governor of Pennsylvania and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania. The winning candidates will serve from 2007 to 2011.
The incumbent Governor, Ed Rendell (D), was running for re-election. Though some had speculated that Rendell would choose another running mate,[1] Pennsylvania's first female Lieutenant Governor, Catherine Baker Knoll was also running for re-election. Rendell and Knoll had the advantage of incumbency, important in the swing state of Pennsylvania. Rendell's approval rating as of May 2006 was 62%.[2]
Challenging Rendell was former Pittsburgh Steelers Hall of Famer, Lynn Swann (R). His running mate was businessman Jim Matthews, a member and former Chairman of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners.
In the 2000 Presidential election, former Vice President Al Gore won the state 51%-47% over then Texas Governor George W. Bush. In 2004, in an even more contested election, Senator John Kerry carried the state 51%-49% over incumbent President Bush.
Although the state has voted Democratic for 8 of the past 12 presidential elections, its Congressional delegation has been majority Republican for years. The counties of Philadelphia and Allegheny are the Democratic strongholds (Philadelphia: 75% Democrat, Allegheny: 60% Democrat), while the central part of the state is where the Republican Party fares best. The statewide party registration is: [3]
| Party | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 3,841,429 | 47.6% |
| Republican | 3,292,656 | 40.8% |
| Other | 939,252 | 11.6% |
Contents |
[edit] Candidates
Four candidates where campaigning for governor[4] , but only two went on to appear on the ballot in November. On August 11, Rogers withdrew her nominating papers, following a challenge by Pennsylvania Democrats, who alleged more than 69,000 signatures on the petitions were fake names, unregistered voters or illegible.[5] The challenge follows Republican Senator Rick Santorum's drive to collect signatures to put Green candidate Carl Romanelli on the ballot for the Senate. A challenge by popular Democratic candidate Bob Casey threatens to unseat Santorum.[6]
Rogers continued to campaign, hopeful that a federal appeals court would rule favorably in a lawsuit seeking to overturn the state's signature requirement for third party candidates.[7](See Pennsylvania United States Senate election, 2006 article for more details.)
- Democrat: Ed Rendell[8] -- currently the Governor of Pennsylvania. Previously, he was the Chairman of the Democratic National Committee and Mayor of Philadelphia.
- Republican: Lynn Swann[9] -- a retired Pittsburgh Steelers football Hall of Famer, a broadcaster, and a motivational speaker.
- Green Party: Marakay Rogers (Green Party), an attorney, liberal activist, and 2004 Green Party State Attorney General nominee.[10] Her running mate is Christina Valente, an attorney and law professor.
- Constitution Party: Hagan Smith (Constitution Party), a building contractor, conservative activist and chair of the Butler County Constitution Party. [11] His running mate is William Kane, a mould maker and Vietnam War veteran.
[edit] Not running or no longer running
- Bruce Castor -- the District Attorney for Montgomery County, Pennsylvania and a primary candidate for the Republican nomination for state Attorney General in 2004 (he lost to Tom Corbett). Castor, who considered a number of races including Governor and U.S. House, is not running for any position in 2006. He decided to run for the Montgomery County Commission in 2007.
- Russ Diamond[12] (Independent), one of three people declared "people of the year" by the Philadelphia Inquirer, for his work in exposing the clandestine pay raise the General Assembly voted themselves at 2am just before adjournment in July 2005. His running mate would have been Tom Lingenfelter, a former GOP state committeman, conservative activist, and frequent candidate. Diamond ended his campaign due to an inability to meet the petition requirements to get on the ballot as an independent.
- Michael Morrill -- he is a political activist and was the Green Party's nominee for governor in 2002. Had he run as a Democrat, Morrill likely would have attempted to court support from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party by attacking what he perceives as flaws in Governor Rendell's record on labor unions, civil liberties, and poverty alleviation. Morrill announced on February, 13, 2006, that he would not run, citing the "toll" his 2002 race took on him and his family. [13] [14]
- Jim Panyard -- the former president of the Pennsylvania Manufacturer's Association withdrew from the race in February 2006. His official statement cited poor fundraising and the lack of significant media attention among his reasons.[15]
- Jeff Piccola -- the Majority Whip of the Pennsylvania State Senate. Piccola officially entered the race in 2005 but withdrew in January 2006. Early polling of showed that his chances of winning the State Committee endorsement were slim.
- William Scranton III -- a former Lieutenant Governor and the 1986 GOP nominee. He is also the son of former governor William Scranton. He withdrew from the race on February 7, 2006, stating that he had found that Lynn Swann was receiving "near unanimous backing of the state and national parties." [16]
[edit] Factors in the election
In July 2005, a Zogby Poll showed Rendell with only a 47% to 41% lead over Lynn Swann. Some speculated that controversy over Act 72, proposed Medicaid cuts, and possibly even a legislative pay increase that was signed into law had reduced the Governor’s popularity.[citation needed] Also, when compared to other polls, the six percent lead is an outlier. Rendell has led in other recent polls by significantly higher margins.
Following that poll, Rendell’s supporters pointed out that he has raised more money than his opponents, which they feel will help him spread his message. They also pointed out that no Pennsylvania governor has lost re-election since the 1950s, [until the PA Constitutional Convention of 1968, PA governors were limited to one consecutive term—therefore a correct statement would be "no PA governor has lost a bid for re-election since 1970"] and that, as a sitting governor, Rendell has all of the traditional advantages of an incumbent. [17][18]
Lynn Swann has been opposed to state funding of embryonic stem cell research[citation needed] which is an unpopular position[citation needed] in Pennsylvania.
Another concern is that many political analysts speculated that the November General Election would spark a wave of success for Democratic candidates, which could damage both Republican Senator Rick Santorum and Governor Candidate Lynn Swann[19]
[edit] Election results
| 2006 gubernatorial election, Pennsylvania | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
| Democratic | Ed Rendell (incumbent) | 2,422,606 | 60.4 | +7.0 | |
| Republican | Lynn Swann | 1,591,503 | 39.6 | -4.8 | |
| Majority | 831,103 | 20.8 | |||
| Turnout | 4,014,109 | ||||
| Democratic hold | Swing | ||||
At 9:45PM, Fox News and CNN projected Ed Rendell the winner
[edit] Opinion polls
| Source | Date | Rendell (D) | Swann (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temple/Inquirer Poll | September 24, 2006 | 60% | 33% |
| Rasmussen | September 22, 2006 | 56% | 36% |
| Zogby/WSJ | September 11, 2006 | 51.6% | 42.1% |
| Zogby/WSJ | August 28, 2006 | 48.4% | 43.5% |
| Rasmussen | August 25, 2006 | 50% | 38% |
| Strategic Vision | August 17, 2006 | 51% | 41% |
| Quinnipiac | August 16, 2006 | 57% | 38% |
| Rasmussen | July 26, 2006 | 50% | 40% |
| Zogby/WSJ | July 24, 2006 | 47.5% | 41.1% |
| Strategic Vision | July 20, 2006 | 49% | 36% |
| Rasmussen | June 26, 2006 | 50% | 36% |
| Quinnipiac | June 22, 2006 | 55% | 31% |
| Zogby/WSJ | June 21, 2006 | 47.7% | 43.4% |
| Strategic Vision | June 15, 2006 | 49% | 38% |
| Rasmussen | May 25, 2006 | 52% | 34% |
| Quinnipiac | May 12, 2006 | 55% | 33% |
| Strategic Vision | May 10, 2006 | 49% | 41% |
| Keystone Poll | May 3, 2006 | 49% | 35% |
| Rasmussen | April 29, 2006 | 41% | 44% |
| IssuesPA/Pew Poll | April 17-26, 2006 | 30% | 29% |
| Muhlenberg | April 17-24, 2006 | 45% | 39% |
| Strategic Vision | April 13, 2006 | 44% | 42% |
| Quinnipiac | April 5, 2006 | 47% | 37% |
| IssuesPA/Pew Poll | March 30, 2006 | 29% | 35% |
| Rasmussen | March 28, 2006 | 44% | 41% |
| Strategic Vision | March 15, 2006 | 44% | 44% |
| Muhlenberg | March 4, 2006 | 46% | 43% |
| Rasmussen | Feb 21, 2006 | 46% | 43% |
| Quinnipiac | Feb 15, 2006 | 48% | 36% |
| Keystone Poll | Feb 9, 2006 | 45% | 42% |
| Strategic Vision | Jan 25, 2006 | 44% | 46% |
| Rasmussen | Jan 19, 2006 | 43% | 45% |
| Strategic Vision | Dec 21, 2005 | 45% | 41% |
| Quinnipiac | Dec 13, 2005 | 48% | 35% |
| Strategic Vision | Nov 16, 2005 | 45% | 42% |
| Rasmussen | Nov 7, 2005 | 50% | 36% |
| Strategic Vision | Oct 19, 2005 | 46% | 41% |
| Keystone Poll | September, 2005 | 53% | 33% |
| Strategic Vision | Sept 12, 2005 | 48% | 43% |
| Strategic Vision | Aug 2, 2005 | 47% | 41% |
| Rasmussen | July 20, 2005 | 47% | 41% |
| Keystone Poll | June, 2005 | 42% | 32% |
| Keystone Poll | March, 2005 | 59% | 29% |
[edit] See also
[edit] External links
- ^ Knoll fights talk of replacement
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ 2005 Municipal Election
- ^ Politics1: Pennsylvania
- ^ Green Party candidates give up
- ^ Green Party candidate withdraws
- ^ Minor parties sue
- ^ Ed Rendell’s Campaign Website
- ^ Lynn Swann’s Campaign Website
- ^ Green Party
- ^ Hagan For Governor site
- ^ Russ Diamond's Campaign Website
- ^ Morrill Majority
- ^ Morrill release
- ^ Panyard site
- ^ PA Comeback site
- ^ Madonna analysis
- ^ Franklin & Marshall College (Terry Madonna) Center for Politics & Public Affairs
- ^ Post-Gazette
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