40th Canadian federal election

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This article or section contains information about a forthcoming or ongoing election. Content may change dramatically as the election approaches and unfolds.

The 40th Canadian federal election, barring war or insurrection, must be called no later than February 13, 2011, five years after the return of the writs from the 39th federal election held on January 23, 2006. Traditionally, the prime minister can select an election date of his or her choosing, usually at the four-year mark or when he or she believes that his or her parties has the best chance of winning the election. However, as the current parliament is led by a minority government, it is likely that an election will occur sooner, as the opposition parties can bring down the government on a vote of confidence or the prime minister can request that the Governor-General dissolve parliament for an early election in an attempt to win a majority.

Contents 1 2006 election 2 Events since the 2006 election 3 Timeline 4 Target seats 4.1 Cabinet ministers elected by a margin of less than 10% in 2006 5 Opinion polls 6 Leadership polls 7 Candidates 8 Incumbent MPs not running for re-election 8.1 Conservatives 8.2 Liberals 8.3 Bloquistes 8.4 New Democrats 8.5 Independents 9 External links 9.1 Government links 9.2 General links 9.3 Blogs 9.4 Party websites

[edit] 2006 election

On election night, more than 65% of eligible Canadian voters went to the polls to cast their votes in the 39th Canadian general election. The Conservative Party received the most votes, with 36% of the vote and 124 seats (now 125). The Liberal Party won 103 seats (now 100), taking 30% of the vote. The Bloc Québécois lost three seats, lowering its total to 51 seats (now 50), with 11% of the vote. The New Democratic Party retained its seats held at the dissolution of Parliament, and won 11 more, making its total 29 seats, with 18% of the vote. The Green Party received 5% of the vote, a minimal increase from the previous election, but this did not translate into any seats. Other parties constituted 1% of the total vote.

[edit] Events since the 2006 election

Since the election, David Emerson and Wajid Khan who were both elected as a Liberal Members of Parliament (MPs) have joined the Conservative Party, and Garth Turner, elected as a Conservative, was expelled from the Conservative caucus. He initially sat as an independent, but he joined the Liberal caucus on February 6, 2007. Joe Comuzzi, also elected as a Liberal, was expelled from the Liberal Caucus for supporting the Budget in 2007.[1] There were also by-elections in Repentigny and London North Centre after the death of Benoît Sauvageau and resignation of Joe Fontana. Both by-elections reelected a member from the incumbent party.

Canadians' next chance to go to the polls will be Canada's 40th federal election, widely anticipated to take place in either 2007 or 2008. However, in the absence of the government falling on a confidence motion thus triggering an election, Stephen Harper's government could formally last until early 2011.

The parliament preceding this election is led by the smallest minority ever in the Canadian House of Commons — a government with just 40.6% of the seats — and led by the Conservative Party of Canada. Although the average length of a minority parliament in Canada is 1 year, 5 months and 22 days, minorities led by the former Progressive Conservative Party tended to be much shorter: the longest previous Conservative minority was just 6 months and 19 days. [2] The 39th Parliament became Canada's longest serving Conservative minority on October 24, 2006.

On May 30, 2006, the Conservatives tabled Bill C-16 which would amend the Canada Elections Act which would provide for fixed elections. The bill states that there will be an election in 2009, and it would be the first to have a fixed election date, the third Monday in October (October 19, 2009). However, the House may still fall before then, and there may be an election still in 2007 or 2008. The bill has finished the legislative process in the Commons and is currently (as of December 2006) in the Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee of the Senate.

It has been rumoured by political pundits that Harper would like to have an election in early 2007 in hopes of attaining a majority of the Commons seats. It has been speculated that he would hold off on an election though until Quebec has a provincial election as to measure the strength of federalist feelings in that province.

On February 15, 2007, the Globe and Mail reported that the Conservatives were preparing for an election expected to be called shortly after the 2007 Budget, due on March 19. Part of the reason for the timing of the election was given as strengthening Conservative poll numbers coupled with the desire to take advantage of the perception that Harper has "better leadership qualities than Liberal counterpart Stéphane Dion". [3]

On March 17, 2007, an internal Conservative Party memo was leaked to the Canadian Press, telling members that they "need to be ready to campaign within the next week." The memo asked members to donate $75 to $150 to help to fund the early stages of the election campaign.

[edit] Timeline

• February 6, 2006 - Harper Cabinet is sworn in. Liberal David Emerson crosses the floor to join the new government thus changing the standings in the Canadian House of Commons to Conservatives 125, Liberals 102, BQ 51, NDP 29, Independent 1. This could potentially be very relevant in terms of numbers, as it now allows a Conservative-NDP voting block to command a majority.
• February 19, 2006 - Bloc Québécois House Leader Michel Gauthier announces that his party will vote to keep the government in office for a "good while". [4] So long as the Bloc votes with the government on confidence measures, they will pass.
• April 3, 2006 - Peter Milliken is re-elected Speaker of the Canadian House of Commons becoming only the third Opposition MP to serve as Speaker. The Speaker only votes in the event of a tie and then must vote to support the "status quo". The election of a Liberal Speaker effectively gives the Conservatives an additional cushion by denying the Liberals a vote. Numerically, the Conservatives can now pass legislation and win motions of confidence with the support of any one Opposition party, i.e., the Conservatives and the NDP combined have enough seats to win a vote, as do the Tories and BQ combined or the Tories and the Liberals (assuming all MPs are present and vote without any defections).
• August 28, 2006 - Bloc Member of Parliament Benoît Sauvageau (Repentigny) dies in a car accident.
• September 20, 2006 - Liberal MP for London North Centre Joe Fontana resigns to run for mayor of London, Ontario.
• October 18, 2006 - Conservative MP for Halton Garth Turner is suspended from the Conservative Party. He sits as an Independent.
• November 21, 2006 - Public Works Minister Michael Fortier, a Senator, announces he will run for the House of Commons in this election in the riding of Vaudreuil-Soulanges.
• November 27, 2006 - By-elections in London North Centre and Repentigny result in holds for the Liberals and Bloc, respectively. The Green Party surprises analysts by coming in a strong second in London North Centre.
• December 2, 2006 - Stéphane Dion wins the Liberal Party leadership at the Liberal Party leadership convention.
• December 12, 2006- The Bloc threatens to introduce a non-confidence motion over Canada's role in the invasion of Afghanistan in the new year
• December 14, 2006 - Liberal leader Stephane Dion says that the Liberals are "preparing" for a spring election.
• December 19, 2006 - Liberal leader Stéphane Dion appoints Scott Brison and Bob Rae as co-chairs of his party's election platform committee and Gerard Kennedy as advisor for election readiness and renewal.
• January 5, 2007 - Liberal MP Wajid Khan crosses the floor to join the Conservatives to retain his position as special advisor to the Prime Minister for the Middle East and Afghanistan.[5]
• January 11, 2007 - Liberal MP Jean Lapierre announces that he will resign his seat of Outremont before the end of the month, which he does on 28 January 2007.
• February 6, 2007 - Independent MP Garth Turner joins the Liberal Party.
• February 14, 2007 - The House of Commons passes third reading on a Private Member's Bill by Liberal MP Pablo Rodriguez committing the Government to meet Canada's Kyoto Protocol commitments by 2012.
• February 21, 2007 - Bloc Québécois MP Yvan Loubier resigns his seat of Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot to run in the Quebec Provincial Election.
• March 21, 2007 - Liberal MP Joe Comuzzi is expelled from the caucus for supporting the Conservative Budget.

[edit] Target seats

The following is a list of ridings which were narrowly lost by the indicated party. For instance, under the Liberal column are the 30 seats in which they came closest to winning but did not. Listed is the name of the riding, followed by the party which was victorious (in parentheses) and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, by which the party lost.

These ridings are likely to be targeted by the specified party because the party lost them by a very slim margin in the 2006 election.

Up to 15 are shown, with a maximum margin of victory of 15%.

* Indicates incumbent not running again. To clarify further; this is a list of federal election winners with their party in parentheses, and their margin of victory as a percentage of the vote.

Conservative	Liberal
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, SK (Lib) 0.3% Brant, ON (Lib) 0.9% West Nova, NS (Lib) 1.1% Vancouver Island North, BC (NDP) 1.1% Oakville, ON (Lib) 1.3% West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, BC (Lib) 1.5% London West, ON (Lib) 2.2% Madawaska—Restigouche, NB (Lib) 2.4% Newton—North Delta, BC (Lib) 3.6% Saint Boniface, MB (Lib) 3.6% Saint John, NB (Lib) 3.6% Mississauga South, ON (Lib) 4.1% Richmond, BC (Lib) 4.1% Random—Burin—St. George's, NL (Lib) 4.7% Kenora, ON (Lib) 5.5%	Parry Sound—Muskoka, ON (Con) <0.1% Winnipeg South, MB (Con) 0.3% Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, ON (Con) 0.4% Tobique—Mactaquac, NB (Con) 0.9% St. Catharines, ON (Con) 1.1% Ahuntsic, QC (BQ) 1.7% Fleetwood—Port Kells, BC (Con) 1.9% London—Fanshawe, ON (NDP) 1.9% Ottawa—Orléans, ON (Con) 2.0% Simcoe North, ON (Con) 2.0% Brossard—La Prairie, QC (BQ) 2.2% Papineau, QC (BQ) 2.2% Burnaby—Douglas, BC (NDP) 2.6% Barrie, ON (Con) 2.7% Kitchener—Conestoga, ON (Con) 2.7%
Bloc Québécois	New Democratic
Louis-Hébert, QC (Con) 0.4% Beauport—Limoilou, QC (Con) 1.6% Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles, QC (Con) 2.7% Hull—Aylmer, QC (Lib) 3.3% Honoré-Mercier, QC (Lib) 3.8% Pontiac, QC (Con) 5.0% Laval—Les Îles, QC (Lib) 6.1% Outremont, QC (Lib) 6.3% Bourassa, QC (Lib) 11.4% Jonquière—Alma, QC (Con) 12.8% Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier, QC (Ind) 13.9%	Thunder Bay—Superior North, ON (Lib) 1.0% Newton—North Delta, BC (Lib) 1.6% Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON (Lib) 1.7% Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing, ON (Lib) 3.7% Nickel Belt, ON (Lib) 4.6%* Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca, BC (Lib) 4.6% Welland, ON (Lib) 4.8% Oshawa, ON (Con) 5.2% Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission, BC (Con) 5.2% Beaches—East York, ON (Lib) 5.4% Kenora, ON (Lib) 5.7% Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar, SK (Con) 6.5% Central Nova, NS (Con) 7.8% South Shore—St. Margaret's, NS (Con) 8.3% Fleetwood—Port Kells, BC (Con) 8.3%

• The Green Party of Canada did not come within 15% of winning any riding in the 2006 election, but since came 9.0% short of winning London North Centre, ON (Lib) in a by-election.

[edit] Cabinet ministers elected by a margin of less than 10% in 2006

1. Tony Clement, Health and Federal Economic Initiaitve for Northern Ontario: 0.1% over Lib in Parry Sound—Muskoka, ON
2. Lawrence Cannon, Transport, Infrastructure and Communities: 5.0% over BQ in Pontiac, QC
3. Jim Flaherty, Finance: 5.7% over Lib in Whitby—Oshawa, ON
4. Rob Nicholson, Justice: 5.9% over Lib in Niagara Falls, ON
5. Carol Skelton, Revenue: 6.5% over NDP in Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar, SK
6. Peter MacKay, Foreign Affairs and Atlantic Opportunities: 7.8% over NDP in Central Nova, NS
7. John Baird, Environment: 9.0% over Lib in Ottawa West—Nepean, ON

[edit] Opinion polls

The dates listed are normally the date the survey was concluded. Most news and political affairs sources use the convention of using the last date that the poll was conducted in order to establish the inclusion/exclusion of current events.

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Conservative	Liberal	New Democratic	Bloc Québécois	Green
Decima Research	April 5, 2007	HTML	39	30	13	8	8
Ipsos Reid	March 28, 2007	HTML	36	31	15	8	9
Angus Reid Strategies	March 28, 2007	pdf	39	22	17	10	11
Decima Research	March 25, 2007	HTML	35	31	13	8	10
Léger Marketing	March 25, 2007	HTML	41	27	14	9	6
Ipsos-Reid	March 22, 2007	HTML	40	29	14	9	7
Strategic Counsel	March 21, 2007	HTML	39	31	13	8	9
Ipsos-Reid	March 15, 2007	HTML	36	34	12	9	8
Strategic Counsel	March 13, 2007	HTML	36	31	15	9	10
Angus Reid Strategies	March 07, 2007	HTML	38	28	15	10	8
Decima Research	March 04, 2007	HTML	35	29	15	7	11
Ipsos-Reid	March 03, 2007	HTML	36	32	15	8	8
Angus Reid Strategies	February 27, 2007	HTML	40	26	15	10	8
Decima Research	February 26, 2007	HTML	36	27	13	8	13
Ipsos-Reid	February 24, 2007	HTML	36	34	13	9	8
Decima Research	February 18, 2007	HTML	32	30	15	9	11
Strategic Counsel	February 18, 2007	HTML	34	29	14	11	12
Decima Research	February 12, 2007	HTML	32	33	15	9	8
SES Research	February 8, 2007	PDF	33	33	17	10	7
Léger Marketing	February 4, 2007	PDF	38	31	14	8	7
Decima Research	January 22, 2007	HTML	32	33	13	13	9
Léger Marketing	January 21, 2007	HTML	35	32	13	8	9
Ipsos-Reid	January 18, 2007	HTML	33	37	13	-	-
Decima Research	January 15, 2007	HTML	32	33	13	10	9
Strategic Counsel	January 14, 2007	HTML	31	35	15	11	8
Environics	December 30, 2006	HTML	34	32	14	8	11
Decima Research	December 30, 2006	HTML	34	31	15	10	8
Ipsos-Reid	December 14, 2006	HTML	34	36	13	10	5
Decima Research	December 13, 2006	HTML	32	35	12	11	7
EKOS	December 9, 2006	HTML	33	40	10	9	8
Ipsos-Reid	December 7, 2006	HTML	32	38	13	11	5
Decima Research	December 3, 2006	PDF	31	35	12	10	11
Strategic Counsel	December 3, 2006	HTML	31	37	14	11	7
Léger Marketing	November 26, 2006	HTML	34	32	15	10	6
Decima Research	November 13, 2006	HTML	31	33	15	10	10
SES Research	November 09, 2006	PDF	34	32	16	13	5
Environics	November 06, 2006	HTML	33	32	19	9	5
Decima Research	November 05, 2006	HTML	31	28	18	10	9
Ipsos-Reid	November 02, 2006	HTML	37	29	19	9	5
Decima Research	October 16, 2006	HTML	32	30	15	11	10
Strategic Counsel	October 15, 2006	HTML	32	32	17	11	9
EKOS	October 12, 2006	HTML	36	31.7	16.2	9.9	6.2
Environics	October 12, 2006		37	28	18	9	7
Strategic Counsel	September 17, 2006	HTML	35	26	19	12	8
EKOS	September 14, 2006	PDF	38.7	28.8	17.0	8.4	7.0
Decima Research	September 4, 2006		34	30	14	11	10
Decima Research	August 28, 2006	PDF	33	28	19	10	8
Ipsos-Reid	August 24, 2006		38	29	17	10	5
SES Research	August 23, 2006	PDF	36	30	18	11	5
Decima Research	August 13, 2006	PDF	36	29	15	10	7
Decima Research	July 31, 2006	PDF	32	31	16	11	8
Strategic Counsel	July 30, 2006	HTML	38	29	15	11	8
Ipsos-Reid	July 27, 2006	HTML	39	27	17	10	7
Decima Research Without Greens Surveyed With Greens Surveyed	July 23, 2006 July 16, 2006 July 16, 2006	HTML PDF	36 36 36	30 30 29	17 19 16	- 11 10	- - 8
Strategic Counsel	July 16, 2006	HTML	37	26	18	11	8
Environics	June 23, 2006	HTML	39	25	21	9	4
Decima Research	June 18, 2006	HTML	38	28	19	10	-
Strategic Counsel	June 8, 2006	PDF	36	27	19	9	9
Decima Research	May 28, 2006	PDF	38	29	21	8	-
Ipsos-Reid	May 18, 2006	HTML	43	25	15	9	5
SES Research	May 9, 2006	PDF	38	28	19	9	6
Strategic Counsel	May 3, 2006	HTML	35	31	16	10	9
Decima Research	April 23, 2006	HTML	41	26	19	10	-
Strategic Counsel	April 09, 2006	HTML	39	29	14	11	5
Environics	March 31, 2006	HTML	41	22	21	10	5
Decima Research	March 26, 2006	HTML	39	28	19	11	-
Ipsos-Reid	March 23, 2006	HTML	38	28	19	9	5
Decima Research	March 13, 2006	HTML	37	28	19	10	-
Decima Research	February 27, 2006	HTML	35	28	21	10	-
Ipsos-Reid	February 23, 2006	HTML	39	27	20	8	5
Strategic Counsel	February 21, 2006	HTML	39	28	19	8	-
Decima Research	February 13, 2006	PDF	35	25	24	8	-
SES Research	February 9, 2006	PDF	33	34	18	9	7
Election 2006	January 23, 2006	HTML	36.3	30.2	17.5	10.5	4.5

[edit] Leadership polls

Aside from the usual opinion polls, various polling firms have conducted surveys to find out the public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister, who is the most decisive leader, or the most charismatic.

The most recent being this Strategic Counsel poll conducted from February 15 - February 18, 2007.

Leader	Clearest Vision for Canada	Most Decisive Leader	Most Charismatic
Stephen Harper	50	53	35
Stéphane Dion	22	19	20
Jack Layton	20	20	36
Gilles Duceppe	8	8	10

[edit] Candidates

40th Canadian Federal Election Candidates

[edit] Incumbent MPs not running for re-election

[edit] Conservatives

• Norman Doyle, St. John's East, Newfoundland and Labrador [6]
• Ken Epp, Edmonton—Sherwood Park, Alberta [7]
• Brian Fitzpatrick, Prince Albert, Saskatchewan [8]
• John Williams, Edmonton—St. Albert, Alberta [9]

[edit] Liberals

• Raymond Bonin, Nickel Belt, Ontario [10]
• Brenda Chamberlain, Guelph, Ontario [11]
• Bill Graham, Toronto Centre, Ontario [12]
• Nancy Karetak-Lindell, Nunavut, Nunavut [13]
• Paul Martin, LaSalle—Émard, Quebec [14]
• Bill Matthews, Random—Burin—St. George's, Newfoundland and Labrador [15]
• Joe McGuire, Egmont, Prince Edward Island [16]
• Stephen Owen, Vancouver Quadra, British Columbia [17]
• Jim Peterson, Willowdale, Ontario [18]
• Lucienne Robillard, Westmount—Ville-Marie, Quebec [19]
• Andy Scott, Fredericton, New Brunswick [20]
• Paul Steckle, Huron—Bruce, Ontario [21]
• Tom Wappel, Scarborough Southwest, Ontario [22]

[edit] Bloquistes

• Michel Gauthier, Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean, Quebec [23]

[edit] New Democrats

• Bill Blaikie, Elmwood—Transcona, Manitoba [24]

[edit] Independents

• Joe Comuzzi, Thunder Bay—Superior North, Ontario [25]

[edit] External links

[edit] Government links

• Elections Canada
  • Elections Canada nominations database
• Parliament of Canada
• Prime Minister of Canada

[edit] General links

• Canada Election 2006 News and Discussion
• Election Prediction Project
• LISPOP - Projected Distribution of Seats
• Pollingreport.ca
• Nodice Elections: Canada
• Politics Canada
• TrendLines Riding Projections Note - predictions recommence April 1st, 2007
• Hill and Knowlton election predictor
• Canada elections links wiki via Democracies Online
• Fairvote Canada - About proportional representation
• Maple Leaf Web

[edit] Blogs

• The Blogging Tories - Conservative Blogs
• LibLogs - Liberal Blogs
• The Blogging Dippers - New Democrat Blogs
• Green Bloggers - Green Blogs

[edit] Party websites

	Conservative Party of Canada
	Liberal Party of Canada
	Bloc Quebecois
	New Democratic Party
	Green Party of Canada

	Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party
	Canadian Action Party
	Christian Heritage Party of Canada
	Communist Party of Canada
	First Peoples National Party
	Libertarian Party of Canada

	Marijuana Party of Canada
	Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada
	People's Political Power of Canada
	Progressive Canadian Party
	Western Block Party

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