Talk:Global warming controversy

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This is a controversial topic, which may be under dispute. Please read this talk page and discuss substantial changes here before making them. Make sure you supply full citations when adding information to highly controversial articles.

This climate change-related article is part of WikiProject Climate Change, an attempt to build a comprehensive and detailed guide to articles on Wikipedia related to climate change and global warming. You can help! Visit the project page or discuss an article at its talk page. We are focusing on Global warming controversy.

This article was nominated for deletion on 22 February 2007. The result of the discussion was speedy keep.

Subpages:

• /sides in the GW controversy

Archives
February 2003 – December 2004 December 2004 – February 2007 Febraury 2007 – March 2007

Contents 1 Tim Ball 2 Vanishing Snowpack 3 I take issue with this sentence 4 Future T rise 5 Framing the controversy 6 AL Gore challenged to a debate on global warming 7 Temperature of the troposphere 8 nuetrality of this article is ... well non-existent 9 Vague phrase in the intro 10 Scope of controversy 11 Amount of agreement among climate scientists 12 Is "Uncle Ed" just warming up? 13 What is the "controversy"? 13.1 What is the controversy about? 14 Categories

[edit] Tim Ball

I'm removing the characterization of Tim Ball as being a critic who denies that the Earth has warmed significantly, due to the following statement he made in an interview in May:[1] "There's been warming, no question. I've never debated that. I've never disputed that. The dispute is, what is the cause. And of course the argument that human CO₂ being added to the atmosphere is the cause just simply doesn't hold up..." (it's at about 15:30 into the audio interview).

I'm also tweaking the article to remove any idea that there's still a scientific controversy about whether the Earth is even getting warmer, due to the lack of any remaining notable climate scientists who still believe that the Earth isn't even getting warmer. MrRedact 19:43, 22 February 2007 (UTC)

Removing him is probably an improvement just because Ball seems like more and more of a nutjob, on the fringe even for a skeptic. But he's lying in that quote, he certainly has debated whether there is warming, and he's done so recently:

• November 2004: "(The world's climate) warmed from 1680 up to 1940, but since 1940 it’s been cooling down. The evidence for warming is because of distorted records. The satellite data, for example, shows cooling." [2]
• August 2006: "The temperature hasn't gone up. ... But the mood of the world has changed: It has heated up to this belief in global warming." [3]
• Feb 5, 2007: "Temperatures declined from 1940 to 1980 and in the early 1970's global cooling became the consensus. ... By the 1990's temperatures appeared to have reversed and Global Warming became the consensus. It appears I'll witness another cycle before retiring, as the major mechanisms and the global temperature trends now indicate a cooling." [4]

--Nethgirb 20:25, 22 February 2007 (UTC)

That's just very bizzare. Maybe he adapts his message a bit to his audience at the time? MrRedact 00:43, 23 February 2007 (UTC)

I have just seen "Swindle," and from the graph therein presented (which I hear has been shown to be relevent up to only 1988, I think) it seems that global temperature took a dip for about forty years before starting to rise again. When he said in 2004 "it has cooled down" does he mean that it cooled down for a period of forty years, or does he mean that it is cooler now in 2004? Perhaps he meant simple, as he said, "it has cooled down," which it did do up to the late 70's? I mean if he said "it has cooled down and then from the late seventies it has heated up again" he would be right, and that is what he seems to believe from the quote below. --Timtak 15:11, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

Who knows what he meant. But note that TGGWS graph is junk. A better one is Image:Instrumental Temperature Record.png. And from that, "cooling from 1940" is wrong - the obvious reading is warming from 1950 with after a 10-y warm blip centered around 1940. But there is no need to press that interpretation - mostly what I'm saying is don't trust TGGWS graph, even the - ahem - corrected one William M. Connolley 15:55, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Vanishing Snowpack

Maybe old news to most of you - Last night on TV - which show I don't remember - it appears that some western state has been claiming that global warming was decreasing the snow pack in their mountains for several years - less ground water, skiing, etc. It appears that the data was cherrypicked - highest year ( 1995) compared with lowest year ( 2005). The assistant state meteorolgist was fired when he publically exposed the sham. Now this state is totally proglobal warming - one way to win an argument.159.105.80.141 11:22, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

Excellent source, "last night on TV" (which time zone? which network?) in a show you do not remember, someone (who?) claimed something about some "western state" (West of where? Peru, Canada, Ireland and Portugal come to mind). Do we have any long-term information about the snow pack? --Stephan Schulz 11:40, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] I take issue with this sentence

"...Among climate scientists there is little disagreement that global warming is primarily anthropogenic..."

Incorrect, actually -- this is still an issue of contention. Regardless of whether or not it is or it isn't anthropogenic, there is no "consensus." See below: http://www.heartland.org/pdf/20732.pdf

The report is fatally flawed, because it relies on the 2003 survey, which was itself flawed - there were no controls on who responded. Thats why you're not citing its publication in a proper journal, because sadly it wasn't William M. Connolley 22:48, 18 March 2007 (UTC)

Regardless of whether the report was published in a peer reviewed journal or not, the fact is that controversy is mainly about the question of whether or not the gentle warming is anthropogenic. RonCram 05:25, 19 March 2007 (UTC)

Yes, but that does not contradict the sentence. --Nethgirb 06:58, 19 March 2007 (UTC)

I disagree. The term "little disagreement" indicates a degree of harmony. No such harmony exists. The number of climate scientists who disagree may be small but the disagreement is vociferous. The sentence has to go. RonCram 14:02, 19 March 2007 (UTC)

I agree with what you said that the controversy is largely about whether GW is anthropogenic. But that controversy is almost all outside climate science. You seem to be equating vociferous disagreement by a tiny minority with "more than a little disagreement", which gives undue weight to the small minority. The skeptics don't get more weight just because they're loud. --Nethgirb 16:30, 19 March 2007 (UTC)

The Brey and Von Storch study^[1] has been "reported" to lack controls, but this report has yet to be verified as far as I know. Has anyone claimed so far that he was a respondent to the survey while not being qualified to answer? And no matter what, the authors of the study should be presumed to have worked properly, not the other way around. If this study would have ended up in supporting mainstream climate science, it would be cited at every corner just like the fluke Oreskes paper is. --Childhood's End 14:11, 21 March 2007 (UTC)

Nethgirb, I am not trying to give undue weight to the minority. The sentence currently states there is "little disagreement." That is not a true statement. The minority is loud because the disagreement is strong, occurs against many points, is scientifically supported and picking up supporters all the time. The term "little disagreement" does not accurately convey the situation and must be modified. RonCram 16:14, 21 March 2007 (UTC)

Taking this response together with your previous one, you're saying the disagreement is strong because the objections are loud ("vociferous"), and the objections are loud because the disagreement is strong. Such rigorous logic is impressive. Raymond Arritt 16:25, 21 March 2007 (UTC)

I thought it was obvious that usually, a strong disagreement tends to become loud... --Childhood's End 20:19, 21 March 2007 (UTC)

With "The Great Global Warning Swindle" it seems that we have attributable (in English language mainstream media, featuring employed academics) disagreement, so it would seem that "little disagreement" seems in appropriate. How about, "some disagreement"? --Timtak 14:54, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

Just for my enlightenment: which employed academics? I watched it but must have missed them? Specifically disagreeing that global warming is primarily anthropogenic that is...--BozMo talk 15:03, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

Respondents to the survey were anonymous. They report this themselves. There is no way to check their qualifications or otherwise. But the main point is that it was never published William M. Connolley 21:41, 21 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Future T rise

One of the major sources of argument over GW is future T rise. Currently the article does this very badly. Uber removed the entire section[5] with an odd comment about "Not a real controversy", which is hard to understand. Various septics have said various things about how tiny the rise is, they ought to go in somewhere. Unless we're all that the IPCC *does* span the full range of opinion; in which case that should be reported :-) William M. Connolley 21:41, 18 March 2007 (UTC)

Perhaps in the sense that people may argue 2-11 F temperature rise is insignificant, yes. Haven't seen any real papers that deny temperature rise, however. Burden of proof is on the author. For more details on this policy of which I speak, read WP:A. ~ UBeR 22:30, 18 March 2007 (UTC)

Haven't seen any real papers that deny temperature rise - if this page was restricted to papers only, it would be much shorter. Most of the septic nonsense isn't publishable, of course William M. Connolley 14:28, 19 March 2007 (UTC)

If you have no real evidence for what you're putting in articles, don't even bother. Wales makes this very clear, as does the rest of the Wikipedia community who've voiced their opinion on Wikipedia policies. There are bona fide skeptical responses to claims made by the by the IPCC. If you're interested in nonsense, try some other online encyclopedia. ~ UBeR 18:35, 19 March 2007 (UTC)

What are you on about? William M. Connolley 18:45, 19 March 2007 (UTC)

Pardon? ~ UBeR 21:00, 19 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Framing the controversy

A major part of the debate revolves around what actions, if any, society should take in response to the prospect of future warming.

Sentences like this assume the viewpoint of the UN climate panel's "third working group", which is that there will be consequences because there will be warming - and that we must mitigate these consequences. I daresay this makes the panel "prescriptive", although they say they are not. (Please help me find verifiable sources who have commented on this aspect of the UNIPCC.)

Moveover, we should not frame the controversy so that it tends to support either side in the debate. Let's just say what the various disputed points and who takes which side. Where it is clear what percentage of scientists support a particular side, we can say report this, but if even that is disputed then we had better not endorse any particular side's estimate of how much support it has. (I base this on the last few days discussion at Wikipedia talk:Attribution.) --Uncle Ed 15:37, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

More to the point (sorry, got distracted by Jimbo's policy clarification at Wikipedia talk:Attribution):

• If there is indeed debate about "what actions, if any, society should take" I would like to see them in the body of the article.
• Otherwise, perhaps in another article spun off from this one.

But my impression is that nearly all the debate is about whether the science favors (1) the idea that there is too much warming and (2) the idea that the surplus is caused by people's actions. The idea that we better figure out what to do about "the surplus" seems to be more of an after thought than a major part of the controversy. --Uncle Ed 16:33, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] AL Gore challenged to a debate on global warming

Moved: was at talk:global warming
Lord Monckton has issued a formal challenge to Al gore for a "an internationally televised, head-to-head, nation-unto-nation confrontation on the question, 'That our effect on climate is not dangerous'." [6] I think this is what has been needed for quite some time - a large formal televised debate! May the best science win. Delta x 06:49, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

Since Monckton is an unknown whose views on GW are hopelessly wrong, I doubt Gore will bother. This will allow M to run around screaming that Gore is afraid, but no-one will listen so it won't matter :-) William M. Connolley 09:31, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

Yeah, Monckton is an "unknown" whose non-notable writings have been published in The Daily Telegraph and criticized by this other "non-notable" figure from some fly-by-night operation called the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. DickClarkMises 15:43, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

I hardly even know who this monckton is, and he sounds like a nutcase anyways. I agree there should be a heavily publicized debate just for the hell of it, but this probably isn't that way it should go down. Specusci 15:10, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

I'd like this discussion to move to Global warming controversy. Any objection if I cut and paste it from here to there? --Uncle Ed 15:16, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

Good idea William M. Connolley 15:28, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

I concur. Thanks, Uncle Ed! :-) ...what a relief that we can actually put this all somewhere more specific. Thanks. --Sm8900 16:31, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

At the risk of taking hasty action, I'll take this as sufficient endorsement. I'm sure an admin wouldn't steer me wrong. --Uncle Ed 16:36, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

I suppose the best question to ask re Monckton's "objections" is, "what are his bona fides?" Has he any special knowledge to question anything in the scientific world? •Jim62sch• 17:06, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

Journalist vs. politician in a debate on science? Am I the only one seeing the disconnect here? ~ UBeR 21:39, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

P.S. If you're interested in a debate among scientists* from both sides, feel free to check this page out. A link to a PDF of the transcript is available at the top of the page. ~ UBeR 21:40, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

Michael Crichton is a scientist? Raymond Arritt 21:51, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

*Save Crichton. Pleased? ~ UBeR 22:24, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

Al Gore is a theology school dropout. Michael Crichton has an M.D. degree. Would it be WP:OR to conclude that Crichton has more of a "scientist" than Gore?

Ordinarily, I might say no. But since this is such a hotly debated controversy, let's allow the sources to decide that. --Uncle Ed 22:28, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

I would suggest you start saying yes, even to your own OR. He graduated cum laude from Harvard College. Needless to say, they're both hardly fit any definition of a scientist. What is this ado over talk page controversies that haven't a place in the respectful article, anyway? ~ UBeR 00:09, 21 March 2007 (UTC)

Dr. Crichton well understand the scientific method and how science is done. Anyone who does not understand that an MD is a scientist does not know anything about medical school. In addition, Crichton was an academic at one time - Visting Lecturer in Anthropology at Oxford. RonCram 16:34, 21 March 2007 (UTC)

Yes, his experience as an anthropologist no doubt gave him a solid grounding in the physics of radiative transfer, properties of coupled nonlinear partial differential equations, and other fields relevant to climate. Raymond Arritt 16:50, 21 March 2007 (UTC)

Please mark sarcasm carefully. I just now realized that "no doubt" was meant ironically. (Uh, that *is* how you meant it, isn't it?) --Uncle Ed 17:29, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Temperature of the troposphere

The entry currently (23 March 2007: 1325 UTC) reads

"Claim: If greenhouse gases were causing the climate warming then scientists would expect to the troposphere to be warming, but observations do not bear this out [33]. Response: satellite temperature measurements do indeed show that tropospheric temperatures are increasing[34] ."

This imho is wrong. In the channel 4 documentary to which is linked it is claimed that the troposphere is warming less quickly(!) than the earth, not that the troposphere is not warming. Given that, the second reference does not disprove the true claim. I'm not that sure, but if I understand the abstract correct there too the surface warms faster that the troposphere.

If my observation is correct, the last sentence of the original text should be removed or, if the article confirms the claim, it should reveal that. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Nvdb (talk • contribs).

The satellite data has been corrected a number of times as more and more issues (orbital drift, time drift, alignment problems, calibration issues) came up. The latest version now is in reasonably good agreement with surface temperatures and model predictions. The skeptics criticism usually lags 1-2 updates behind. --Stephan Schulz 20:48, 23 March 2007 (UTC)

Stephan is (of course) correct. The *old* skeptics claim was no warming, though that hasn't been true for a while. The new claim is not enough warming, but since thats fairly subtle it doesn't make a good soundbite so they don't use it much. Ahem, anyway. The correct rebuttal to the correct claim is that there is no disparity between the sfc and trop trends; satellite temperature record has two good sources for this: the old CCSP report (which has the nice irony of having Christys name on it, a little in joke there for those paying attention) and the new AR4 SPM William M. Connolley 21:09, 23 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] nuetrality of this article is ... well non-existent

I have red the entirety of the "Global warming controversy" article; not being anything like an expert on the subject most of the arguments and facts presented went over my head. I did however take note of a very significant problem. This article is presented in a very pro-global-warming-as-fact (my own way of referencing sides) light.

1. If you are attempting to maintain nuetrality while discussing a controversy it is necessary to present both sides of the debate in equal detail, with equal documentation, references, and citations.

Absolutely not. Only if both sides are equally well support by expert opinions. See WP:NPOV#Undue weight.--Stephan Schulz 13:46, 24 March 2007 (UTC)

It's impossible to argue that the global-warming-as-a-myth (again my own way of referencing sides in this "controversy") side of the controversy is presented strongly and competently within this article.

...or anywhere in the scientific literature! --Stephan Schulz 13:46, 24 March 2007 (UTC)

2. It is my own personal opinion that global warming is very much an unproven theory (this is not an attack on the validity of said theory).

Right, as theories are not ever proven in a strict sense. It is, however, a very well-supported theory.---Stephan Schulz 13:46, 24 March 2007 (UTC)

This can very easily be proven, in the face of all argument to the contrary, by the fact that there is a controversy surrounding global warming. Two schools of thought exist on the matter, and both are able to make clear and logical arguments in support of thier own view on the matter. For instance there is no controversy surrounding gravity, the spherical nature of the earth, or that wikipedia is intended to be an online resource for the presentation of FACTS in a nuetral and informative tone.

There is, however, a (popular) controversy about evolution. And the Flat Earth Society would like to have a word with you. A popular controversy is not a sign that a scientific theory is weak. For that you need a scientific controversy. And the scientific record is squarely, nearly unanimously, in support of the IPCC consensus position. --Stephan Schulz 13:46, 24 March 2007 (UTC)

To conclude; global warming is a controversy because those who do not support the theory are just as able to present accurate scientific evidence which contradicts the evidence given by the supporters of global warming.

Then why don't they? What I see is a permanent repetition of over and over refuted arguments, with the occasional introduction of a new result hailed as the final coffin nail, but usually refuted not much later. It's no accident that I chose the creationism debate as an example - the two are strongly alike. The American Enterprise Institute, Heartland Institute, OISM correspond nicely with the Institute for Creation Research, Answers in Genesis, and The Creation Research Society, with similary varying degrees of whackiness, but a common lack of scientific support. --Stephan Schulz 13:46, 24 March 2007 (UTC)

This fact must be addressed, as well as the fact that most "warming trends" occur locally, and are balanced out by other local trends, and the relatively small amount of data collected in regard to key issues indicating a global warming trend. Also the logical and historical precedents must be adressed, specifically the fact that in 1850 the so called "little ice age" was ending, which would lead to a logical increase in overall temperatures.

Those are my thoughts, I am not an expert, but in order to justify this article as being neutral issues like the ones I presented must be adressed and expounded upon. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 71.60.39.18 (talk • contribs).

Since you are not an expert, I suggest you try to inform yourself about what the state of the scientific debate actually is. Global warming is a good starting point, as are the various IPCC reports. The AR4 SPM is very readable even for non-experts. --Stephan Schulz 13:46, 24 March 2007 (UTC)

Do not, I repeat, DO NOT start with wikipedia'a Global warming article if you already feel this article is biased. You will be more disappointed than you are now. Go to your library and check out printings that show both sides of the debate. Yes it IS a debate though most experts on the "No" side have gone underground for fear of funding cuts. Both sides constantly claim victory by "supposedly" knocking holes in each others' rock solid science but the reason is because it is not rock solid in any direction. There are good points made in many periodicals if you can read between the dribble but Wikipedia, as far as Global warming goes, is a biased mess. Ask any High School teacher or college prof if they would use it and you'll see what I mean... They know it's one-sided and go to other sources for a true picture of the situation. It's sad but the wiki global warming page is almost a running joke on many campuses today. --22.122.88.01 08:12, 25 March 2007 (UTC) —The preceding missigned comment was added by 72.129.87.69 (talk • contribs).

The global warming article is an excellent place for student research to begin as it is well referenced and quite reliable (except when vandalized). I recommend it to my students, of course - with the caveat that any online source needs to be checked closely and time of access must be a part of any reference to it. It is a valuable starting point for student research. Vsmith 14:24, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

There will always be some who recommend one sided articles to their students, usually those who are also one sided in their own viewpoints. I always read the wiki sections before telling a student that it is "at least" fair in representing known controversies. I will compare it to a published encyclopedia and make sure it hasn't gone overboard with it's zealousness. Unhappily wiki's Global Warming is a poor choice for researching students. Its POV would be laughable if it were not sad that some students will use this exclusively and believe the one-sidedness as gospel. It is an article such as Global Warming that has our school considering banning any student research using wiki as a source. We won't care if they read it but we also don't care if they read the Inquirer.66.81.21.61 03:57, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

Interesting. So what neutral encyclopedia did you read to compare our global warming article to? --Stephan Schulz 07:13, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Vague phrase in the intro

typical within normal climatic variations

Thanks to User:Stephan Schulz for catching and fixing this {{vague phrase}} so quickly. --Uncle Ed 12:41, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

Here's another one, in the next section:

• Earlier the global warming debate focused on whether mean global air temperature had been rising since 1979, when satellites began measuring it. Now that the existence of global warming is accepted by virtually all scientists ...

What does the bold phrase mean?

"Global warming" refers to:

1. rising temperature since 1979
2. rising temperature since end of Little Ice Age
3. the tendency of global cooling periods to be followed naturally by global warming periods (probably not in this passage!)
4. anthropegenic global warming theory in general
5. the specific claim that most of the warming since (blank) is anthropogenic (but please fill in the blank)

Help us out again, Stephan? --Uncle Ed 17:26, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

Ed, re item 3 -- at question is the extent. Let's take a human example: blood pressure in a human body changes frequently, from lower than normal to higher than normal; at issue would be whether one ingested a stimulant to drive it higher the expected daily range or a depressant to drive it lower than same -- in other words, are the changes within a normal range? Hence, the GW question would be best phrased, "is the present level of global warming in keeping with historical data? The answer to that question would be no -- anthropogenic pollution has served as a stimulant (and, please, don't bring up the farting cows). •Jim62sch• 19:46, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Scope of controversy

Someone inserted text which implies that there isn't any controversy amoung scientists. I'm guessing it was our resident scientist, Dr. Connolley who did this. But I didn't check the history. Just come out and tell us - that'll save time all round.

Have we decided amongst ourselves that Wikipedia should endorse the view that certain aspects of global warming are or are not in dispute amoung scientists?

If so, which aspects are these? I'd like to see a list.

I'll start the list here:

1. That near-surface temperatures, as recorded by thermometers, have increased since around 1850
   • This is generally accepted, but there are some notable holdouts and/or quibbles
2. That these NST's went up till around 1940, dipped a bit, and kept right on going up
   • This is also generally accepted (some qualifiers)
3. That the bulk of global warming since (blank) is anthropegenic
   • Depends on how you fill in the blank, but all AGW theories are in dispute

The purpose of this page is not to settle the controversy. Nor is it to endorse one side. Especially not a side which says "The other side is just biased due to politics, ideology or money."

We are trying to list all the dispute points; why they are in dispute; and where possible what sorts of people and groups take which sides of each point. --Uncle Ed 17:41, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Amount of agreement among climate scientists

Several sections above discuss the question of how much or little agreement there is among climate scientists, on various aspects of the global warming controversy. Perhaps we can summarize it all here. Anyway, the NPOV dispute tag needs a section to link to, so I made this. Look above for multiple sections disputing neutrality of this article. --Uncle Ed 18:02, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

See any of these sections:

• Wrong Place for the "Pro Global Warming" arguement
• Stephan Schulz's revert
• NPOV
• NPOV - It is past time for a genuine NPOV
• I take issue with this sentence
• nuetrality of this article is ... well non-existent

Lot's of NPOV-dispute stuff here. There can be no question about whether the Global warming controversy is the subject of an NPOV dispute. --Uncle Ed 18:25, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

Are you refering to the article or the concept? •Jim62sch• 19:47, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Is "Uncle Ed" just warming up?

Ed, you really need to keep the POV edits under control. If you disagree with something, add a fact tag, but don't just arbitrarily remove items you find disagreeable. (We've gone through this before, have we not, in other places and other times?) Remember too, that the purpose of this page is not to debate the existance of global warming, or really, its causes. We are here to write a good, accurate, honest article. Should both sides of the "controversy" be covered? Of course. But keep the anti-GW stuff in its own section.
BTW: there is nothing "vague" about the term "global-warming" -- the meaning is quite clear even to its most ardent and vociferous detractors. •Jim62sch• 18:15, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

Okay, I was too hasty there. I stand corrected. I will add {fact} tags, as suggested. The trip down memory lane sounds familiar too. Didn't I just say much of that? :-)

As for sections, I suggest that we either:

1. Lay out the entire pro-GW case in one huge section, followed by the anti-GW rebuttal
2. Go through GW point by point, and create one section for each disputed point. In each section, lay out the pro-GW case and the anti-GW case.

How's that? --Uncle Ed 18:25, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

I don't like the second option (it makes for a he said-she said type of article), I could live with the first, but I'd like to see a consensus on that. •Jim62sch• 19:05, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

What I would like to see is the opposite layout: First the anti-gw case, than the scientific opinion. That would make for interesting reading...do the Gedankenexperiment yourself! --Stephan Schulz 07:15, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

Actually I think the second option (which I think is currently roughly how the page is laid out, though maybe it could use some work) makes more sense than the first. The first option would result in effectively two separate articles on one page. Unfortunately since this is a controversy, it is largely a he said-she said type of affair... --Nethgirb 07:21, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

Stephan, that option would be fine as well (I wasn't wedded to a particular order, I just wanted to see the sections be different). But, yes, even the briefest gedankenexperiment shows the superiority of your suggested layout. •Jim62sch• 19:50, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

Stephan's idea is biased: it assumes that the two sides are "anti-GW" and "science". So what we need instead is this:

• Political: pro-GW and anti-GW
  • Each political side says what it wants and why; along with any scientific claims (cherry-picked?) they care to make.
  • And I don't mean Wikipedians when I say "side": you got to quote Al Gore or Senator Inoue as your source of "hot air" ;-)
• Scientific: pro-GW and anti-GW (or the other way round, it doesn't matter)
  • Anyone who's a scientist or any organization which issues 'quotable' scientific pronouncments gets to weigh in on the SCIENCE of global warming.
  • Scientists or org's which say it's (1) mostly anthropogenic, since (blank); (2) too close to call; or (3) mostly natural - these should be cited.
  • Any polls which suggest what percent of SCIENTISTS support any particular pronouncement or "factual claim" should be mentioned; Or statements of support made by organizations 'on behalf of' their members - but only if individuals who say "they didn't really poll us" are allowed to complain

How's that for a structure?

We need to identify any disputes over "facts" - not just competing theories.

1. For example, there have been (and still are) various disputes over the temperatures of the last few millions - or even last few thousand years. Like the hockey stick dispute: Mann, backed by the UN, asserts the non-existence of MWP and LIA. Others (we should name them) said Huh? Since when did these stop existing?
2. Any quibbles over surface thermometers vs. satellites/balloons, UHI effect, etc. (not a biggee, but grist for the mill).
3. Solar: various ideas about solar cycle length - that doesn't even have a redirect, let alone an article! - and how (some scientists) say it explains more than half of temperature fluctuations.

None of this is intended to prove anything. I just am curious about what science says - not just what the UN panel and the Democratic Party (US) and Greens 'say it says'. I'd like to have a neutral article to point to - not a biased one. --Uncle Ed 20:35, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

• Afterthought: by anthropogegenic, since (blank) I meant you have to say what year you mean. Was 1850-2007 mostly anthopogenic, or 1950 to preset, or what? The time period in question keeps shifting. --Uncle Ed 20:39, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

Too much talk, too few facts. Firstly, you need to distinguish scientists in general and climate scientists - medical articles (correctly) would give no weight to climate scientists opinions on heart disease. Secondly, why not go out and find some climate scientists who say "Since when did these stop existing?" about the MWP. Like you say: you should name them. Can you? William M. Connolley 20:50, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

Please help me create a list of internationally-known climate scientists.

If you have any verifiable information on what proportion of these believe (or doubt) any reported fact or documented theory of any facet or aspect of global warming (anthropogenic or otherwise), please provide it. I stand ready to help assemble this info.

How about starting with your organization? Some sort of penguin-love group, right? ;-) British Artistic Sorbet or some such rot . . . ;-) --Uncle Ed 22:30, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

Why is evading the point a good idea? You clearly believe - from some source unclear - that there are some/many/a few/lots of people who, errm, say "Since when did these stop existing?" about the MWP. Or something. So the question is... does this source exist (if so, please read it and tell us the names on it) or is it just some vague recollection of septicism from the past (in which case please don't base your editing on it; or make suggestions for page reform based on it). Come on Ed: lets have some actual names, of real scientists, actually involved in the research William M. Connolley 22:38, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

William, there is a problem with your position. You are assuming that climate scientists are the only ones qualified to speak on climate or the only ones who can evaluate climate research. Of course, that is not true. Climatologists have proven to be very poor statisticians and statisticians are the most qualified to evaluate statistical methods. Scientists from other fields (esp. computer science) are often skeptical of computer climate models because they know the limitations of the computer models from their own fields. For example, I can create a computer model to hindcast the stock market beautifully, but it has absolutely no predictive value. RonCram 23:28, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

Ron, you're wrong about most/all of that. The articles on climate will inevitably give most weight to the scientific views of climate scientists. William M. Connolley 20:28, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Ron, computer science is a field I do indeed know something about. I'd be very interested in some examples of computer scientists who have publically criticized climate models. In particular if they did so in peer-reviewed scientific publications. --Stephan Schulz 21:13, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Stephan, I believe you are already familiar with Orrin Pilkey (Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis, Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can’t Predict the Future [7] [8], pps. 82-83)

In addition, I would direct you to:

• Browning, G. and H.-O. Kreiss: Numerical problems connected with weather prediction. Progress and Supercomputing in Computational Fluid Dynamics, Birkhauser.

• Lu, C., W. Hall, and S. Koch: High-resolution numerical simulation of gravity wave-induced turbulence in association with an upper-level jet system. American Meteorological Society 2006 Annual Meeting, 12th Conference on Aviation Range and Aerospace Meteorology.

Gerald Browning is working on another article now. You can see some of his thoughts here. [9] RonCram 18:26, 1 April 2007 (UTC)

Pilkey is a geologist, not a computer scientists. Browning seems to be a mathematician, not a computer scientist, although I cannot find reliable information (he's in the Math Genealogy data base, and his Ph.D. is from math department). Both Browning and Kreiss and Lu et al are talking about weather models, not climate models (and B&K is over 20 years old, about an eternity in computer science) . And on the very CA page you cite, Browning acknowledges "The large, nonphysical dissipation (compared to the real atmosphere) used in the atmospheric portion of the coupled climate models together with the mesh not yet resolving the smaller scales of motion under 10 km prevents the unbounded exponential growth from being seen at this stage." (emphasis by me), i.e. the problem he is concerned about does not occur in current climate models.--Stephan Schulz 19:09, 1 April 2007 (UTC)

Dr. C, I don't want to debate the issue with you. If I wanted to do that, I would post on your blog. Please help me describe what the controversy is about. --Uncle Ed 23:43, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

Ed, I don't think you should write stuff like Others (we should name them) said Huh? Since when did these stop existing? unless you can find some when challenged. Otherwise you're just adding to the noise William M. Connolley 20:28, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Ed, basically you need to stop with the bluster and come up with objections that pass muster. Most/all of your objections are dead chickens flapping in an ever-warming breeze. •Jim62sch• 22:57, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Why is the majority scientific opinion needeed on this page at all? The page is titled Global warming controversy, so from what I understand, it should contain the Controversy. Then much like the Global Warming page does, just provide a link to the extra info that is no the primary topic (like a link going to the Global Warming article) for the majority Scientific Opinion.--Zeeboid 20:14, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] What is the "controversy"?

Seems the nature of the "controversy" is ill-defined. The present intro mainly reflects Uncle Ed's views, so I ask if he can supply references that define the controversy thus. Raymond Arritt 00:06, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

I'd rather we all did this together. Can you tell me your views on how the controversy should be defined? Perhaps we can come to an agreement.

Or by "views" did you mean my POV on GW itself? I wouldn't want that.

My 'view' is that the article should outline the 10 or 20 most important aspects of global warming, along with a brief statement of what each 'side' thinks of those aspects.

For example, on the Hockey Stick, we have the IPCC's view (backing their lead author M. Mann), and other supporters on the AGW side. We have Singer, et al. on the anti-AGW side.

On just about every aspect of global warming, you'll find scientists on either side.

The article will be very interesting, because we'll finally get to see what proportion of scientists are 'for' and 'against' each proposition in the AGW argument.

Here's one that has a very uneven split:

• That human beings have had "a discernable effect" on "the environment". I don't think you'll find a single scientist anywwhere denying this: he'd have to say that human being DO NOT affect the environment, which is silly. Just look at Atlanta, which is 5 or 10 degrees hotter than the surrounding rural parts of Georgia.

Here's probably the sharpest point of division:

• That "most" of the temperature increase since 1975 is due to human beings.
  1. For: United Nations climate panel (UNIPCC) and {various individual scientists?}
  2. Against: various individual scientists

My "view" if you like that term is that we contributors should keep our personal viewpoints about AGW to ourselves and collaborate on making a NEUTRAL article which lists every controversial point about global warming. This would seem to fit the title of the article! --Uncle Ed 23:14, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Are the scientists climatologists? That a biologist disagrees is of little value. Also, from what I've seen, most of the anti-GW scientists are paid by fundie or neocon groups. Another caveat: most things released by the Bushies are just swamp gas. In fact, they went so far as to dictate what climatologists could say at a recent conference.

As for your view as described above, there's only one problem that I can see: you yourself can't abide by it! •Jim62sch• 23:23, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

BTW, I know this too is from the evil pinko NYT, but you just might want to read it anyway: Material Shows Weakening Of Climate Change Reports •Jim62sch• 23:29, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Uh oh... Don't bring up the Scientist's profession or who pays them unless you are going to look at that for every scientist. It is very easy to disqualify anyone for any reason. For example: Shall we remove all the scientists who have some funding from "Green" organizations? I would argue yes then because if you bring up "Paid by neocon groups" or "Paid by Exxon" as a reason the scientist could have an "Altered perspective" then the same can be true if they are funded by a "Green Organization" correct? If you are willing to scrutinize the minority opinion by high standards, you must be willing to scrutinize the majority opinion by the same standard, many of the editors here couldn't handle that, thus our problem--Zeeboid 20:01, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

Raymond, you ask a good question. The article needs to be better focused. And we need to decide the order it is dealt with. I suggest we focus on four or five main claims, positions or proposals as I out line below. It is possible the fifth may be considered too political.

[edit] What is the controversy about?

The controversy is about five claims, positions or proposals:

• 1. The claim that an increase in atmospheric CO2 from man's burning of fossil fuels is mainly responsible for increasing global surface temperatures. (Asks the questions: Is warming global? Is it possible it is mainly regional? If so, what does that mean? What does the satellite data say regional warming? What does physics say about atmospheric CO2? What other climate forces could be at work? How much is attributable to man?)
  2. The position of the keepers of the temperature record that they do not need to archive and make available their data and methods (making it impossible for other scientists to verify the extent of the reported warming or how the Urban Heat Island (UHI) is handled). When Phil Jones of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) was asked for archived data and methods, he replied: "We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it?" [10] [11] (Asks the questions: Is the warming real or an artifact of instrument error or UHI bias? Is the warming real or an artifact of errors in the handling and adjustments of the dataset? Why haven't the data and methods been released?).
  3. The position of the IPCC that (contrary to McIntyre, the Wegman Report and the NAS) current temps are the warmest in 1300 years. (Asks the questions: Why did the IPCC reaffirm this position without a thorough examination of the Hockey stick controversy? Is there evidence the IPCC is driven by politics instead of science?)
  4. The claim that warming will continue at least until 2100 resulting in catastrophic consequences, including extinctions and increasing weather catastrophes. (Asks the questions: Is it reasonable to conclude the current warming climate regime will continue without interruption for nearly 100 years? Have any observations been made or peer-reviewed articles published that indicate a coming change in the climate regime? What does the science say about global warming causing increasing number of hurricanes?)
  5. The steps society should take to prevent, mitigate or adapt to global warming. (Asks the questions: Is the Kyoto Protocol economically viable? Is the Kyoto Protocol politically viable? What other steps have been proposed for either mitigation or adaptation?)RonCram 18:31, 1 April 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Categories

I have removed this article from

• Category:Global warming skeptics

and

• Category:Former global warming skeptics

since it is not an individual or organisation which can be considered to have any view in particular. Those categories are not for articles containing information on global warming skeptics, they are for the skeptics themselves to be listed in. QmunkE 13:12, 1 April 2007 (UTC)