Think Big
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- For the horse, see Think Big (horse)
Think Big was a major interventionist state economic strategy in New Zealand, sponsored by the Prime Minister of New Zealand Robert Muldoon (later Sir) and his third National government from the early 1980s. The Think Big schemes saw the government borrow heavily overseas, running up a massive external deficit, and using the funds for large-scale industrial projects. Petrochemical and energy related projects figured prominently, designed to utilize New Zealand's abundant natural gas to produce ammonia, urea fertilizer, methanol and petrol.
The "Think Big" label was coined by Cabinet Minister Allan Highet in a speech to a National Party conference in 1977.
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[edit] History
In the late 1970s the New Zealand economy suffered from the aftermath of the 1973 energy crisis, from the loss of New Zealand's biggest export market upon Britain's entry to the European Economic Community, and from rampant inflation.
In 1978 New Zealand faced a further crisis: in oil-supply. OPEC continued to raise the price of oil. Then the Iranian Revolution occurred in Iran (1979), paralysing that country's oil-industry and withdrawing 5.7 million barrels (900,000 m³) per day of production from world supply.
In 1978 Bill Birch became Minister of Energy. He saw the substantial reserves of natural gas under Taranaki and off its coast as an opportunity to bring life to the ailing economy.
In 1979 the oil crisis worsened. During the first half of 1979 OPEC raised oil prices from US$12 a barrel to US$19 a barrel. The New Zealand government banned weekend sales of petrol. 30 July 1979 saw the introduction of carless days, where private motorists had to choose one day of the week as their carless day. Anyone caught driving on their carless day faced heavy fines.
The increases in oil prices contributed substantially to the continuing worsening of the country's terms of trade. The cost of oil loomed as the major component of the New Zealand balance of payments deficit. Muldoon's administration intended the Think Big projects to reduce New Zealand's reliance on imports, especially oil imports, and thus improve the balance of payments.
[edit] Think Big Projects
The core Think Big projects included the construction of the Mobil synthetic petrol plant at Motunui, the complementary expansion of the oil-refinery at Marsden Point near Whangarei, and the building of a stand-alone plant at Waitara to produce methanol for export. Waitara converted natural gas from the off-shore Maui field to methanol, which it then converted to petrol on-site. Declining oil prices rendered this process uneconomic and New Zealand has abandoned the manufacture of petrol. Both the Motonui and Waitara Methanex methanol plants have now ceased production due to the increase in natural gas prices caused by Maui's decline and competition for gas from power companies.
The construction of the Clyde Dam on the Clutha River formed part of a scheme to generate electricity for smelting aluminium. Construction of a proposed smelter at Aramoana on Otago Harbour never eventuated — largely because of resistance on environmental grounds.
[edit] List of Think Big projects
- Methanol plant at Waitara
- Ammonia/urea plant at Kapuni
- Synthetic petrol plant at Motunui
- Expansion of the oil refinery at Marsden Point
- Expansion of the New Zealand Steel plant at Glenbrook
- Electrification of the North Island Main Trunk Railway between Te Rapa and Palmerston North
- A third reduction line at the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter, near Bluff
- The Clyde Dam on the Clutha River.
[edit] Did the strategy work?
No definitive study has addressed the issue as to whether Think Big brought positive economic benefit to New Zealand or whether it simply raised the country's debt levels. Opinions differ.
The cost to taxpayers remains unknown, and no comparison of cost to results obtained has appeared. Some commentators believe the schemes delivered net benefits to the private sector only. Some see the Synfuels and other projects as a way for foreign multinationals to establish themselves in the then highly-regulated New Zealand market.
Little doubt remains the New Zealand economy reaped substantial benefits from economic activity during the construction period, but the basic justification for the projects, a permanently higher oil-price, did not happen. Oil prices subsequently dropped in real terms.
Think Big did have a large positive impact on New Zealand's exports, and saved large quantities of commodity-imports through its process of import substitution. The industrial projects such as Tiwai Point continue to generate very sizeable profits (for their largely overseas owners) that arguably cumulatively have outweighed the actual cost of the creation of the Think Big projects. Power generated from the Clyde Dam, the expansion of the Marsden Point oil refinery (claimed as having one of the most powerful catalytic crackers in the world), and the methanol produced at Waitara all provide examples of continuing positive benefits to the economy decades after the completion of the projects. New Zealand's balance-of-payments problem in the late 1980s would have loomed much more significantly if New Zealand had not had the benefits to its external accounts arising from Think Big.
Approval of Think Big, at least during and soon after the time of its implementation, tended to rely on party affiliations (with National Party supporters backing the projects, while Labour Party supporters opposed them). But Think Big no longer serves as an issue in New Zealand politics. Even much of the National Party now commonly perceives that Think Big sank New Zealand into huge debt without any significant return, accompanied by a generational repudiation of Muldoon's entire legacy.
[edit] References
- Gustafson, Barry (2002), His Way: A Biography of Robert Muldoon, Auckland University Press, ISBN 1-86940-236-7
- Easton, Brian (2001), The Nationbuilders, Auckland University Press, ISBN 1-86940-260-X
[edit] External links
- Techhistory: Think Big
- Chronology of World Oil Market Events 1970-2003 including a detailed annotated graph of oil prices
