Ontario general election, 2007

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This article or section contains information about a forthcoming or ongoing election. Content may change dramatically as the election approaches and unfolds.

The Ontario general election of 2007 is scheduled to be held on October 10, 2007 to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of the Province of Ontario, Canada.

As a result of legislation passed by the Legislature in 2004, election dates are now fixed by formula so that an election is held approximately four years after the previous election, unless the government is defeated by a vote of "no confidence" in the Legislature. Previously, the governing party had considerable flexibility to determine the date of an election within three to five years of being elected. The date of this election was originally presumed to be October 4, 2007^[1], however the law fixes the date on the first Thursday of October or on any day within seven days thereof if required to accommodate a date of "religious or cultural significance". The date was set as October 10, 2007 to avoid a conflict with the Jewish holiday of Shemini Atzeret which falls on October 4, 2007 ^[1].

The general election will elect Ontario's 39th Legislative Assembly. The leader of the party with the most seats normally becomes the next premier of the province, unless the other two political parties together hold a majority of seats and decide to form a coalition government.

On election day, there will likely also be a provincial referendum on the recommendations of the Ontario Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform.

[edit] Opinion polls

Since the 2003 general election, several polls have been conducted to determine the current preference of voters. They showed a severe decline in Liberal support following the 2004 Ontario budget. Overall, support for the governing Liberals has declined significantly since the 2003 election, the NDP has gained significant ground since the 2003 election, and the PCs' poll numbers have not changed significantly since 2003. Support for the Green Party has also increased significantly, a shift which parallels the increase in support for the party's federal counterpart; notably, not all polls list the Ontario Greens as an option.

Note that the majority of dates listed here are dates the polls were released, not conducted. A dash indicates the absence of a prompt for that party.

Polling firm	Date
		Liberal	PC	NDP	Green
Ipsos-Reid	February 24, 2007	38	33	17	9
EKOS	October 12, 2006	42.4	36.2	19.6
SES Research	October 7, 2006	40	33	20	8
Léger Marketing	July 23, 2006	39	35	20	7
Environics	June 23, 2006[1]	35	36	27	-
Léger Marketing	May 29, 2006[2]	35	37	18	-
Vector Research	May 14, 2006	39	38	18	5
Léger Marketing	April 24, 2006	39	35	18	-
Environics	April 13, 2006	34	39	24	-
SES Research	March 23, 2006	41	34	20	5
Léger Marketing	March 22, 2006	34	34	20	-
SES Research	February 17, 2006	41	37	18	4
Vector Research	January 21, 2006	36	35	23	6
Environics	October 16, 2005	42	35	21	-
Vector Research	September 19, 2005	33	41	20	6
SES Research	June 14, 2005	41	35	21	4
Léger Marketing	June 8, 2005	42	34	17	-
Léger Marketing	April 29, 2005	36	37	19	-
Vector Research	April 13, 2005	35	41	18	5
Environics	April 11, 2005	35	41	21	-
Léger Marketing	March 17, 2005	44	33	19	-
Vector Research	December 16, 2004	39	32	24	5
Environics	December 2004	37	39	23	-
Environics	October 12, 2004[3]	35	40	23	-
Léger Marketing	September 2004	37	35	19	-
Vector Research	August 22, 2004	37	32	23	9
Environics	August 9, 2004	35	37	23	4
Ipsos-Reid	June 14, 2004	32	39	23	6
SES Research	June 5, 2004	34	41	20	-
Decima	May 27, 2004	32	29	21	-
Environics	May 6, 2004	45	33	20	1
Ipsos-Reid	April 19, 2004	45	30	19	5
SES Research	January 23, 2004	49	29	10	-
Environics	January 21, 2004	50	30	16	3
Ipsos-Reid	December 14, 2003	51	27	16	6
Ipsos-Reid	November 8, 2003	56	27	12	5
Environics	October 30, 2003	49	29	18	2
Last election (October 2, 2003)		46.4	34.6	14.7	2.8

1. ↑ Date poll finished being conducted. Released July 18, 2006.
2. ↑ Date poll finished being conducted. Released June 14, 2006.
3. ↑ Date poll finished being conducted. Released December 11, 2004.

[edit] Results by party

[edit] Ridings

Map of the new ridings in Southern Ontario coloured in by using the transposition of the results of the 2003 election.

With the passing of Bill 214 and the Representation Act, 2005, 2005, Ontario’s electoral boundaries will no longer be identical to the federal electoral boundaries ^[2]. Beginning with the next provincial general election on October 10, 2007, Ontario will be divided into 107 electoral districts. The districts will consist of 11 northern electoral districts that are identical (except for a minor boundary adjustment) to the ones that existed on October 2, 2003, and 96 southern electoral districts that are identical to their federal counterparts, as they existed on September 1, 2004 ^[2].

The 11 northern electoral districts are: Algoma—Manitoulin, Kenora—Rainy River, Nickel Belt, Nipissing, Parry Sound—Muskoka, Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Thunder Bay—Superior North, Timiskaming—Cochrane, and Timmins—James Bay ^[2].

Ontario 107 electoral districts

[edit] Target seats

Target seats shown are the ridings that each party came within 15% of winning in the last election, using redistributed results.

Ajax—Pickering (PC) 0.21% Mississauga South (PC) 1.36% Renfrew—Nipissing— Pembroke (PC) 1.84% Perth—Wellington (PC) 1.93% Kitchener—Conestoga (PC) 3.08% Burlington (PC) 3.56% Brampton West (PC) 4.18% Kitchener—Waterloo (PC) 4.39% Halton (PC) 4.44% Oxford (PC) 6.16% Simcoe North (PC) 6.71% Cambridge (PC) 7.28% Leeds—Grenville (PC) 7.29% Nickel Belt (NDP) 7.84% Oak Ridges—Markham (PC) 8.42% Timmins—James Bay (NDP) 8.50% Haldimand—Norfolk (PC) 9.04% Oshawa (PC) 10.10% Whitby—Oshawa (PC) 10.14% Welland (NDP) 10.42% Niagara West—Glanbrook (PC) 11.60% Barrie (PC) 12.95% Durham (PC) 13.49% Carleton—Mississippi Mills (PC) 13.50% Parry Sound—Muskoka (PC) 13.94% Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock (PC) 13.99% Nepean—Carleton (PC) 14.93%	Richmond Hill (LIB) 0.70% Thornhill (LIB) 1.29% Newmarket—Aurora (LIB) 3.23% Willowdale (LIB) 3.46% Kitchener Centre (LIB) 4.37% Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington (LIB) 4.70 Huron—Bruce (LIB) 5.69% London—Fanshawe (LIB) 5.84% Ottawa West—Nepean (LIB) 5.95% Bramalea—Gore—Malton (LIB) 5.96% Oakville (LIB) 6.49% Brampton—Springdale (LIB) 7.01% Northumberland—Quinte West (LIB) 7.14% Niagara Falls (LIB) 7.19% Nipissing (LIB) 8.33% Guelph (LIB) 8.49% Mississauga—Streetsville (LIB) 8.85% Lambton—Kent—Middlesex (LIB) 8.98% Etobicoke Centre (LIB) 9.73% Don Valley West (LIB) 10.11% Mississauga—Erindale (LIB) 10.22% Mississauga—Brampton South (LIB) 10.42% Pickering—Scarborough East (LIB) 10.65% Mississauga East—Cooksville (LIB) 10.66% Ottawa—Orléans (LIB) 11.03 Peterborough (LIB) 11.09 Etobicoke—Lakeshore (LIB) 11.19% Ancaster—Dundas— Flamborough—Westdale (LIB) 11.93 Scarborough Southwest (LIB) 13.64% Sarnia—Lambton (LIB) 14.33% London North Centre (LIB) 14.62%	London—Fanshawe (LIB) 4.28% Oshawa (PC) 6.18% Hamilton Centre (LIB) 8.89%

[edit] Incumbent MPPs not running for Re-Election

Richard Patten, Liberal, Ottawa Centre <http://www.cbc.ca/canada/ottawa/story/2007/03/14/patten.html>

[edit] Timeline

• May 13, 2004 - Andrea Horwath of the NDP is elected in a by-election in Hamilton East and collects over 60% of the vote. The riding was previously held by the Liberals.
• May 18, 2004 - The 2004 Ontario budget is announced, and is very unpopular with the public, as it includes many broken promises including a tax increase and health care cuts.
• June 1, 2004 - Bill 87, which would establish fixed election dates, is introduced in the Legislative Assembly.
• August 9, 2004 - A poll by Environics shows the Liberals in second place for the first time since the last election. The NDP is also rising in support. According to the poll, the Progressive Conservatives lead with 37% followed by the Liberals with 35%, the NDP with 23% and the Greens with 4%. [4]
• September 18, 2004 - John Tory becomes leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party replacing outgoing former premier Ernie Eves and defeating Jim Flaherty and Frank Klees.
• January 31, 2005 - Eves resigns his seat in the provincial legislature, clearing the way for Tory to run in the resulting by-election.
• March 17, 2005 - John Tory is elected in the Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey by-election, holding the seat for the Conservatives.
• March 29, 2005 - John Tory is officially installed as the Leader of the Opposition.
• August 18, 2005 - Speaker Alvin Curling resigns his Scarborough—Rouge River seat to accept a diplomatic appointment. A by-election must be called within six months.
• October 26, 2005 - A by-election is called for Scarborough—Rouge River for November 24.
• November 24, 2005 - Bas Balkissoon wins in the Scarborough–Rouge River by-election, holding the seat for the liberals.
• November 29, 2005 - Progressive Conservative MPPs Jim Flaherty, John Baird, and NDP MPP Marilyn Churley resign their seats in the provincial legislature to run for seats in the Canadian House of Commons in the 2006 federal election.
• March 1, 2006 - By-elections are called for the ridings of Toronto-Danforth, Nepean-Carleton, and Whitby-Ajax for March 30. These seats became vacant when they were resigned on November 29, 2005, so the MPP's could run in the federal election of January 2006.
• March 30, 2006 - Peter Tabuns of the NDP wins a by-election in Toronto-Danforth, Progressive Conservative Lisa MacLeod wins in Nepean-Carleton, and Progressive Conservative Christine Elliott wins in Whitby-Ajax. The Liberals' star candidates in all three ridings fell short. [5]
• May 18, 2006 - Former Education Minister Gerard Kennedy resigns his Parkdale-High Park seat to pursue his bid for the federal Liberal leadership. [6]
• September 14, 2006 - Cheri DiNovo of the NDP wins the by-election to replace Liberal Gerard Kennedy in Parkdale-High Park.
• September 18, 2006 - Joe Cordiano, MPP for York South-Weston, resigns from cabinet and legislature to spend more time with family.
• September 25, 2006 - Tony Wong MPP for Markham,resigns from the legislature to run for York Region council in Markham, Ontario.[7]
• September 28, 2006 - Cam Jackson MPP for Burlington, resigns from the legislature to run for mayor of Burlington
• January 10, 2007 - By-elections called in the ridings of: Burlington; Markham; and York South–Weston to be held on February 8, 2007.
• February 7, 2007 - The provincial government announces election date will be October 10, 2007 to avoid conflict with Shemini Atzeret on October 4 ^[1].
• February 8, 2007 - In three by-elections, Paul Ferreira^[3] of the NDP wins York South–Weston from the Liberals while Michael Chan ^[4] of the Liberals and Joyce Savoline ^[5] of the PCs hold Markham and Burlington, respectively
• March 29, 2007 - MPP Tim Peterson leaves the Liberal caucus and intends to run in this election as a Progressive Conservative. [8]
• September 25, 2007- Nominations close on the second Thursday before Election Day ^[6].
• October 10, 2007 - Ontario General election from 9:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m. EDT ^[6].

[edit] References

1. ^ ^{a b c} Howlett, Karen. "Ontario government changes election date", The Globe and Mail Newspaper, 2007-02-07, pp. Online update. Retrieved on 2007-02-07.
2. ^ ^{a b c d} New electoral boundaries (HTML). Elections Ontario, Government of Ontario (2005). Retrieved on 2007-01-19.
3. ^ Elections Ontario, Unofficial results [York South-Weston]. 216 of 216 polls reporting. Accessed February 8, 2007
4. ^ Elections Ontario, Unofficial results [Markham]. 295 of 295 polls reporting. Accessed February 8, 2007
5. ^ Elections Ontario, Unofficial results [Burlington]. 260 of 260 polls reporting. Accessed February 8, 2007
6. ^ ^{a b} Candidates' election calendar (PDF). Elections Ontario. Retrieved on 2007-02-08.

[edit] See also

• Politics of Ontario
• List of Ontario political parties
• Premier of Ontario
• Leader of the Opposition (Ontario)
• Ontario provincial by-election, 2007

[edit] External links

• Numerous Canadian Polls
• Environics Polls
• SES Research, Feb 17, 2006 poll
• DemocraticSPACE Ontario 2007 Coverage
• Nodice.ca - Ontario Provincial Election 2007