Superpower

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An American B-2 bomber in flight. Advanced military technologies such as this allow power projection on an international scale is one hallmark of a superpower

A superpower is a state with the first rank in the international system and the ability to influence events and project power on a worldwide scale; it is considered a higher level of power than a great power. It was a term first applied in 1943 to the Soviet Union, the United States, and the British Empire. Following World War II, the British Empire was gradually decentralized and dismantled and the Soviet Union and the United States were regarded as the only two superpowers, then engaged in the Cold War.^[1]

Currently, the most common belief among mainstream journalism and in the world of academia holds that only the United States of America fulfills the criteria to be considered a superpower.^[2] Sometimes, given the unipolar nature of the world, it is described as a hyperpower.^[2][3]

China and India appear to have the greatest potential amongst all the other nations of achieving superpower or near-superpower status within the 21st century and are often termed as emerging superpowers. The European Union has economic power about the same as the United States but lacks a comparable unified military. As a result, some consider that despite not being politically unified, it may be either an emerging or existing superpower, depending on one's viewpoint.

Others, however, doubt the existence of superpowers altogether, stating that today's complex global marketplace and the rising interdependency between the world's nations has made the concept of a superpower an idea of the past and that the world is now multipolar.^{[4][5][6][7][8][9][10]}

[edit] Origins

The term "superpowers" was used to describe nations with greater than Great Power status as early as the 1930s, but only gained its specific meaning with regard to the United States and the Soviet Union after World War II.^[11]

The term in its current political meaning was coined in the book The Superpowers, written by William Thornton Rickert Fox, an American foreign policy professor at Columbia University in 1943. Fox used this word to identify a new category of power able to occupy the highest status in a world in which, as the war then raging demonstrated, states could challenge and fight each other on a global scale. According to him, there were (at that moment) three states that were superpowers: the United States, the Soviet Union, and the British Empire.

The Suez Crisis made it clear that the British Empire, economically ravaged by two world wars, could no longer compete on an equal footing with the Soviet Union and the United States without sacrificing its reconstruction efforts, even while acting in concert with France and Israel.

As the majority of World War II was fought far from its national boundaries, the United States did not suffer the industrial destruction or massive civilian casualties that marked the wartime situation of the countries in Europe or Asia. During the war, the United States had built up a strong industrial and technological infrastructure that had greatly advanced its military strength into a primary position on the global stage.

Following the war, nearly all of Europe had aligned either with the United States or the Soviet Union. Despite attempts to create multinational coalitions or legislative bodies (such as the United Nations), it became increasingly clear that the United States and the Soviet Union were the dominant political and economic powers of the newly emerging Cold War, and had very different visions about what the post-war world ought to look like. This was reflected in the NATO and Warsaw Pact military alliances. These alliances implied that these two nations were part of an emerging bipolar world, in contrast with a previously multipolar world. A number of nations undertook various programs to attempt to secure their own independent "superpower" status, such as the development of nuclear weapons by the United Kingdom, France, and China, as a rite of passage for being a "world player."

The idea that the Cold War period revolved around only two blocs, or even only two nations, has been challenged by some scholars in the post-Cold War era, who have noted that the bipolar world only exists if one ignores all of the various movements and conflicts that occurred without influence from either of the two so-called superpowers. Additionally, much of the conflict between the superpowers was fought in "proxy wars", which more often than not involved issues far more complex than the standard Cold War oppositions.

After the Soviet Union disintegrated in the early 1990s, the term hyperpower began to be applied to the United States, as the sole remaining superpower of the Cold War era. This term, coined by French foreign minister Hubert Védrine in the 1990s, is controversial and the validity of classifying the United States in this way is disputed. One notable opponent to this theory, Samuel P. Huntington, rejects this theory in favor of a multipolar balance of power.

There have been attempts to apply the term superpower retrospectively, to a variety of past entities such as the Persian Empire ^{[12] [13]}, Roman Empire or even states that only briefly rose to unsurpassed power such as the Netherlands. However the validity of applying the status of Superpower to states existing in a world in which global interconnections were far more limited than was the case in the 20th century when the superpower concept was originated is unclear and its use in such contexts has tended to be informal.

[edit] Characteristics of a superpower

The criteria of a Superpower are not clearly defined, but most definitions rely on measurements of four types of influence:^[14]

The European Union as an entity encompasses 492 million people and produces annually 30% of the worlds nominal GDP.

As a consequence of subjective measurements, the identity of Superpowers might be disputable, but a superpower should be a hegemony in most aspects of geopolitics. This means a superpower should be a hegemon in terms of both hard power and soft power. A superpower should have the ability to project power around the world. In the modern world, this requires not only a strong land army, but also the air and sealift capabilities to deploy and supply that military in furtherance of national interests, as well as public support for doing so. The military is generally backed by a strong economy, one that has the capability of controlling the global market. In recent times, indications of a strong economy has been shown through space research, a key part of competition between the two Cold War superpowers.

It is also considered necessary to be able to project soft power, or cultural influence, across numerous regions of the world. Cultural influence implies a developed philosophy and ideology. The Cold War superpowers showed this through their spread of Western culture as well as the differing ideologies of capitalism and communism. Each built their own cultural blocs via these differing ideologies.

In the modern era, some consider access to wide land or sea area as vital to a superpower. Territory allows a country to mine minerals and grow food, increasing its self-sufficiency. Both the Cold War superpowers covered extremely large amounts of territory. The British Empire lost hegemony as it lost its colonies. The two emerging superpowers and the European Union both cover large amounts of territory. A large area and population allows for a stronger and larger military and economy. It is an important factor in warfare, as it allows possibilities such as retreat, regrouping and reorganization, as well as placing distant radar and missile silos - even a rich country with a small area is vulnerable in a military sense.

[edit] The Cold War era

Main article: Cold War

     Union of Soviet Socialist Republics      United States of America

The term superpower in this context was originally coined to describe the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United States of America, which opposed each other politically and economically during the Cold War.

The Soviet Union represented the ideology of communism, and led the Warsaw Pact, known as the Eastern Bloc in the West.

The United States represented the ideology of capitalism and led NATO during the Cold War.

The Soviet Union and the United States fulfilled the superpower criteria in the following ways:

	The Soviet Union	The United States
Political	Strong Communist system of government. Communist ideals spread its influence over the globe. Had permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Strong ties with Eastern Europe and the developing world. Strong ties with anti-colonialist movements and labor parties.	Strong and stable liberal democracy, influence over the globe. Strong companies allowed the US to exert further influence over capitalist nations. Permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Strong ties with Western Europe, Latin America, British Commonwealth, several East Asian countries, and the developing world.
Geographic	Covered 22 million km², 11 time zones; was the largest country in the world. Covered huge sea area, and encompassed vast deposits of minerals and large farming areas.	Third largest country in the world, with an area of approximately 9.6 million km² [1]. Vast resources of minerals, large farming industry.
Cultural	Vast influence over neighbors, varied and rich history and culture. Wielded influence through communist governments and organizations around the world. Communist ideals attractive to many over the world.	Huge influence over most of continent, integrated culture with Western Europe. Companies sold American and American-inspired cultural products all over the world. Freedom of speech attractive to many and other guaranteed rights for residents. Many large American cities have made a lasting cultural impact on the world.
Military	Had the largest army the world has ever seen (13 million in 1946). Sizable air force, imposing navy. Had the largest territory in the world with an abundance of strategic resources, the capability to develop advanced military and space technologies, and the world's largest stock of nuclear weapons for the second half of the Cold War.	Bases all over the world, particularly in an incomplete "ring" bordering the Soviet Union to the West, South and East. Largest nuclear arsenal in the world during the first half of the Cold War — stationed on its own soil and also in Europe. Strong and technologically advanced army, world's largest navy, and largest and most technologically advanced air force in the world.
Economic	Was the largest centrally planned economy in the world, and second largest economy overall. At one point, produced 20% of the world's industrial output.	Largest market economy in the world, and also largest economy overall.
Demographic	Had a population of 293 million, was the third largest on Earth.	Has a population of over 300 million. Now the third largest on Earth.

[edit] Superpowers today

A pie chart showing the comparison in share of GDP (PPP) between the entities discussed in this article. The entities discussed in this article take up 51% of the world's total GDP.

The post-Cold War world is widely considered as a unipolar world, with the United States as the world's sole remaining superpower.^[15][16] The United States is uniquely able to combine economic, military, political and cultural strength.

Proponents of the EU, China and India argue that this mainstream assessment of current global politics may not be so easily simplified, in part because of the difficulty of classifying the European Union at its current stage of development. Others argue that the notion of a superpower is antiquated, considering the complex global economic interdependencies that define this new century, and proposing that the world is multipolar.^{[4][5][6][7][8][9][10][17]}

Russia, as the legal successor state to the Soviet Union, also retains certain aspects of a superpower, such as a vast nuclear arsenal, a large population, the largest territory in the world with an abundance of strategic resources, and the capability to develop advanced military and space technologies.

Some analysts think the hegemonic stability theory explains the current evolution in international relations. Hegemonic states tend to overstretch their power, and new rivals will become gradually more powerful, eventually replacing or counterbalancing the weakened hegemony.

[edit] The United States

Most people consider the United States the only sovereign nation-state, or country, that meets all criteria for being a superpower.

Geographic factors

• The United States is the third largest country in the world by land area, after Russia and Canada. (Counting the disputed Taiwanese area as part of China places the United States in fourth place.)

Demographic factors

• With over 300 million people, about 4.5% of the world population, the U.S. is the world's third most populous nation and the most populous with a high Human Development Index.
• It has a high Human Development Index, according to the United Nations, ranking number eight.PDF.

Political factors

• It is a stable federal constitutional republic.
• It contributes around 22% of the United Nations budget[2], and is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (with veto power).
• Its stance on world issues is usually supported by leaders of other nations, especially the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Germany, Poland, Thailand, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Israel.

Economic and financial factors

• The U.S. has the world's largest national economy with a GDP of over $13 trillion.[3] The US has nearly 30% of the global market exchange-rate GDP.^{[citation needed]} It is characterized by moderate to high economic growth.^{[citation needed]}
• The U.S. has a per-capita GDP much greater than any emerging superpower and higher than that of most industrialized countries, at USD $45,600.^{[citation needed]} The U.S. has the third largest per-capita GDP in the world, following Luxembourg and Norway.^{[citation needed]}
• Over the past 20 years, America's economic growth rate has averaged just over 3 percent per year.^{[citation needed]}
• The U.S. is headquarters for many global corporations and financial institutions.
• American companies are leading players in many fields, such as new materials, information technology, nanotechnology, biotechnology, bioinformatics, and software.
• The country is a key agricultural and commodities producer[4] PDF, although it is dependent on petroleum imports.
• It has a decisive influence on international financial bodies, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank; the American dollar is the most important reserve and convertible currency in the world.

U.S. and USSR/Russian nuclear weapons stockpiles, 1945-2006.

Military factors

• The U.S. spends more on its military than the next twelve countries combined.^[18] As of 2006, it has the world's second largest nuclear arsenal, carries some of the most advanced strategic nuclear missiles and combines some of the world's most technologically advanced weapons systems with the expeditionary capability to project military power to any point in the world. The U.S. has strong and technologically advanced army, world's largest navy, largest and most technologically advanced air force in the world, and second largest military in the world in number of active troops.

Cultural factors

• American culture is highly influential worldwide, especially in Europe, Japan, China, India and in the English-speaking world.^[19] American consumer brands, including especially fast food and beverage outlets, have penetrated worldwide and become accepted features of every developed nation and many developing countries. ^[20] American internet and technology products are especially notable for being frequently cited as the most dominant in the worldwide market. ^{[21][22][23][24]}

[edit] Potential 21st century superpowers

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The Euro has been adopted by 13 countries of the European Union and is used by 315 million people.

Both popular and academic commentators, historians and economists predict the rise of new superpowers in the 21st century, mentioning in particular three likely superpower candidates. As to whether the European Union, China, and India can or will be future superpowers is a matter of ongoing debate.

Mark Leonard writes in his book, Why Europe Will Run the Twenty-First Century, that the European Union will certainly rival the United States as a Superpower. ^[25] Leonard cites the following four factors: the EU's large population relative to the U.S., the EU's large economy and market size relative to the US, the unpopularity and perceived failure of U.S. military action and foreign policy in recent years, and finally, the EU's better social organization or quality of life (based on measures such as hours worked per week and income distribution). ^[26] According to Leonard, the EU's unique structure is actually the genesis of a new paradigm in history, where a multipolar or even nonpolar world power structure develops based on large EU-like country groupings working in cooperation with one another. According to Andrew Reding, senior fellow at the World Policy Institute in New York City, the EU's economic might and prosperity as well as its technologically advanced infrastructure will make the most potent political entity in the relatively near future.^[27]

After the EU, China receives almost continual coverage in the popular press of its potential Superpower status.^[28][29] Geoffrey Murphay's China: The Next Superpower argues that while the potential for China is high, this is fairly perceived only by looking at the risks and obstacles China faces in managing its population and resources. A 2006 poll by the Pew Global Attitudes Project conducted in several countries found that "43% of Americans and 37% of Chinese join 65% of Indians in saying China will replace the United States as the world's dominant power either in the next 10, 20, or 50 years. Japan is the only country in which a majority (59%) says China will never supplant the U.S." However, these are only views of the general public, not fact. ^[30]

Newsweek, the BBC and the International Herald Tribune join several academics in discussing India's arrival as a potentially second or third Superpower. ^{[31][32][33][34][35]} India's emergence in the spheres of information technology and regional power politics are recognized as potential reasons India will rival American, European or Chinese power in the world. ^[36][37]

China and India rising to Superpower status isn't inevitable, according to scholars such as professor Pranab Bardhan, Chief Editor of the Journal of Development Economics^[38], who suggest millions in poverty and ineffective government prevent China or India from rivaling the US or the EU any time soon. The political situation in China is too fragile to survive into Superpower status, according to a leading authority on China, Susan Shirk, writing in China: Fragile Superpower.^[39] Forbes editor Cait Murphy summarizes the most repeated objection to India's qualification of a Superpower by arguing that no nation that holds half of the worlds chronically hungry can be a Superpower. ^[40]

[edit] See also

• Great powers
• Energy superpower

[edit] References and sources

Asia

• China, India Superpower? Not so Fast!

USA

• New study compares GDP and growth: EU versus USA

Articles

• Michael J. Kelly, Pulling at the Threads of Westphalia: Involuntary Sovereignty Waiver - Revolutionary International Legal Theory or Return to Rule By the Great Powers? 10:2 UCLA Journal of International Law & Foreign Affairs (2005).

Books

• Fox, William (1944). The Super-powers: the United States, Britain, and the Soviet union—their responsibility for peace. Harcourt, Brace a. Co. 
• Todd, Emmanuel (200X). After the Empire — The Breakdown of the American Order. 
• Kennedy, Paul (1988). The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. ISBN 0-679-72019-7. 
• Belt, Don (2004). "Europe's Big Gamble", National Geographic, 54–65. 
• Brzezinski, Zbigniew (1997). The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. New York: Basic Books. ISBN 0-465-02726-1. 
• John McCormick The European Superpower (Palgave Macmillan, 2007).